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Bradley has a shot at 6th place

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  • Bradley has a shot at 6th place

    Here are the MVC standings after 17 games. Bradley is all alone in 7th place with a 6-11 record.





    Bradley (6-11) is 1 game behind Missouri State (7-10), so if Bradley wins at Drake, and Missouri State loses at home to Wichita State in their final games, Bradley will tie MSU for 6th place in the final standings. Most fans would be happy to see the team land in 6th place.

    Since they split their season series, the tiebreaker for seeding for the MVC Tournament would become the adjusted RPI as of Sunday morning, Feb. 26. This tiebreaker is very important, because the difference between the 6th seed and the 7th seed means not having to play on Thursday in the play-in round of the MVC Tournament.

    As of right now, the RPI's of the two are fairly close. Bradley's RPI is 225, and Missouri State's is 214. Unfortunately, Bradley plays at Drake, whose RPI is 295, so with a win, Bradley's RPI won't likely rise much. Missouri State plays Wichita State (RPI 40), so their RPI won't drop much even with a loss.
    There are numerous variables which will also affect the RPI's that cannot be predicted, like whether other teams Bradley and MSU have played will win or lose in the next 3 days, so the bottom line is that to the best of my estimation, it will be close, but it will be difficult for Bradley's RPI to rise above Missouri State's. But it is possible!

  • #2
    Last night when Evansville lost at Wichita, their RPI did not drop - it actually improved 4 points..
    ..if MSU loses at home against them I gotta think their RPI might still drop a couple points, but not much

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    • #3
      Yes, Evansville's RPI actually rose 4 points even with their loss at WSU, and tonight, Loyola's RPI actually dropped 4 points with their win against Drake. So it is not likely Bradley can make up the difference and pass MSU in RPI this weekend. But there are enough variables, that it remains a long shot possibility.

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      • #4
        I thought the tiebreaker was each team's NON-CONFERENCE rpi only. Dave said in the post game show that MSU currently was six spots ahead of BU in that category.
        DUBL R 1

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Dubl R 1 View Post
          I thought the tiebreaker was each team's NON-CONFERENCE rpi only. Dave said in the post game show that MSU currently was six spots ahead of BU in that category.
          Here is the tiebreaker formula from the Missouri Valley Conference website-
          Page Not Found (404): It looks like you're lost... The page you are looking for no longer exists.


          It is not specifically based on non-conference RPI, but rather "the overall adjusted RPI, as published in The RPI Report on the morning after the final regular-season MVC game."

          Here is "The RPI Report" being referred to. It is a daily report published by College Basketball News-



          Here is an explanation of "adjusted RPI" which is no longer used by the NCAA, and includes an extra factor that awards bonus points for wins against Top 50 teams and penalty points for losses to teams below RPI 150, as well as penalty points for playing and losing to non-Division I opponents.


          Here is the current RPI Report, updated after Wednesday's games-


          As noted in my top post from last night, Bradley is 225 and Missouri State is 211.

          By the way, the PJ Star's Dave Reynolds tweeted a similar post last night 20 minutes after I posted this thread, except the RPI's given for Bradley (230) and Missouri State (211) were not correct. Maybe they were from an earlier date?


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          • #6
            Great Topic

            From where we came, it's great to be able to even discuss 6th place. Go Braves and go Coach Wardle!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by pfcmsh View Post
              From where we came, it's great to be able to even discuss 6th place. Go Braves and go Coach Wardle!
              I absolutely agree, pfcmsh.
              If Bradley does lose out in a tiebreaker, we will look back at the schedule at a couple games we should have won. Probably one more win would have boosted our RPI high enough to get the 6th seed.

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              • #8
                If BU wins and MSU loses Saturday, predicted RPI's are 221 for MSU and 226 for BU. It's gonna be tight, but we're likely to come out on the short end...

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                • #9
                  Yea.... I tried out RPI Wizard at this site:



                  I put in wins for Bradley and losses for Mo St and it came out Mo St 215 and Bradley 222.

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                  • #10
                    I will be watching the scoreboard Saturday and rooting for a sweep by Delaware, SEMO, Hofstra, Wofford, George Mason, Eastern Illinois, Nevada, Ball State, Chicago State (good luck with that), UT-Arlington, Ole Miss and TCU.
                    Yajusneverno!

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                    • #11
                      10,000 simulations of upcoming games at this site imply a 2.5% chance that Bradley ends with a better RPI than MSU...

                      RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) Forecasts, Updated Daily, Free

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Tulsa Brave View Post
                        10,000 simulations of upcoming games at this site imply a 2.5% chance that Bradley ends with a better RPI than MSU...

                        http://www.rpiforecast.com/stats.html

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Tulsa Brave View Post
                          10,000 simulations of upcoming games at this site imply a 2.5% chance that Bradley ends with a better RPI than MSU...

                          http://www.rpiforecast.com/stats.html
                          Yeah, I know. I bought a Powerball lottery ticket ($435 million prize) earlier this week while driving through Lafayette, IN. It's probably not worth finding that ticket to check the numbers . . .
                          Yajusneverno!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BUSongwriter View Post
                            Yeah, I know. I bought a Powerball lottery ticket ($435 million prize) earlier this week while driving through Lafayette, IN. It's probably not worth finding that ticket to check the numbers . . .
                            ...are you joking? The winning ticket was sold in Indiana. And as far as I know no one has come forward to claim it.
                            Gotta stop feeding the trolls.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I have a suspicion BUSongwriter is pulling our leg.

                              The winning Powerball numbers have been drawn for the jackpot that's climbed above $400 million for the first time in nearly three months.

                              Comment

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