NCAA planning to use more analytics to select and seed NCAA tournament teams

[Da Coach]

"The NCAA is hosting a meeting on Friday, Jan. 20 designed to speed the inclusion of more metrics in the selection process for the basketball tournament....
From Jeff Sagarin and his golden mean, to Ken Pomeroy and his adjusted offensive efficiency, to Kevin Pauga and his KPI to Ben Alamar with ESPN??™s BPI, they??™ll all be there. A math geek??™s dream team."

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-01-12/college-basketball-ncaa-tournament-selection-process-involves

[tornado]

the more complex or nebulous and variable they make the criteria, the more than can just use their arbitrary "eye test" or "smell test" to pick their favorite teams...not generally a good sign for mid-majors



anyway, I had another thought since I have watched this "field" of "metrics" over the years....here's my 2 cents...
-the top 20-30 or so teams are easy to figure- nobody needs metrics or anything - you can check W-L record or just look at stats or the names on their rosters
-it's those next 30, 40 or 50 teams that are the difficult ones...because if they fall in the top 50-60 then they are infinitely more likely to get an at-large bid than if they fall just outside that "Top 50-60" zone...
-now look at today's KENPOM...
they have TCU, Minnesota, Houston (really weak schedule - 10 opponents with RPI>130), Northwestern - and even Wilmington (who are WINLESS against anyone whose RPI is Top 100), Georgia (who are 1-5 against Top-80 teams), Seton Hall and Michigan (just 2-6 against teams in the top 150!) ahead of ISU.
Sorry - but I think the way ISU's been playing - they'd beat all those teams
They also have Illinois just over 60 but the Illini haven't really impressed against any good teams.

Then look at where he's got Georgetown & Ohio State - right now he has them BOTH inside the Top 60 - high enough that they'd probably get an at-large bid - but we know how really bad both have played so far.....this system REWARDS them simply because they are in good conferences! So....ahah!! Now we see the plan - to me it's OBVIOUS that NCAA wants a system that gets more big-conference teams in and fewer mid-major at-large teams.
Nevada, Oakland, and New Mexico State (16-2) are all surprisingly low in Kenpom's ratings- yet all are having surprisingly good seasons.
So - I still don't think this system is gonna make everyone happy.

[tornado]

well here it comes...the NCAA is gonna use some of these "advanced" analytics and players/stat formulas to choose and seed the teams in the NCAA Tournament..

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/

I will present plain & simple why I think this is a crock - it is unfair and it is biased - and that the average guy or fan will NEVER be told the truth

Here are the reasons:

*** they are currently "collaborating with" - or in actuality "conspiring with" guys who make a living selling their formulas. They sell to people who pay and the big schools pay better than the little guys - cuz they have more money.

*** the #1 source mentioned the most is "Kenpom" - which is Ken Pomeroy.
Here are Ken Pomeroy's own words when asked how his ratings are achieved:
"The ratings are a proprietary algorithm, so I don't reveal the exact formula."

http://kenpom.com/contact.php

So -- it's a SECRET and you will never be told...
and that is the MAIN & OVERRIDING fact...
and all the other "advanced metrics" are likewise SECRET formulas with no way for the fans to either know what's going on or be assured that it is fair. Remember - big money (the kind that flows like rainwaters into Lake Oroville) comes 1000% more from the BCS schools than from mid-majors and small schools.

*** Pomeroy readily admits that preseason ratings play a part in his metrics...
PURELY subjective opinion on what teams he likes best even if he's never seen them one time!!!
Kinda like - "gee, my mom went to Ball State so I'll knock them up a little higher cuz they deserve it" - or whatever else his little heart desires in his arbitrary way of rating...

and it is also suspected that some - if not many other PURELY SUBJECTIVE analyses made by perhaps ONE sole observer - also play a part - such as subjective (3-Star or 4-Star) type ratings of players or coaches - in some or all of the other sources for the "advanced metrics"

*** Thus - if the NCAA is telling that they are going to be guided by SECRET formulas that could and ARE variously affected or based on purely subjective observations and ratings by a small number of people who earn big money selling these ratings...
Then I think we have a horrible recipe for disaster and without a doubt a situation that is so ripe for and inevitably GOING TO BE influenced and corrupted by the money.

*** and of course that boils down to whether or not the NCAA and the various powerful teams are honest and fair and want to see things done the right way - with fairness for everyone.

LOL, LOL, LOL ...if there's anyone in the universe that thinks that actually a possibility, then please let me know and I will try to get you help.

If there's anything we've seen confirmed a zillion times it's that the NCAA can be & is biased and corrupt and that teams/coaches/"agents" within NCAA Division I will do anything in their power and spend any amount of money to buy influence no matter how corrupt they have to be to do so.
And of course the system cannot be trusted nor relied upon to police itself...
There's rampant cheating on recruiting - even coaches willing to hire hookers to land recruits
There's rampant cheating & fixing grades- even at Ivy League schools & military academies & coaches arrangin for ringers to take ACT tests for stars like Derrick Rose
There's rampant lying - even lying direct to the face of NCAA investigators like Bruce Pearl
There's rampant corruption in many other ways - see Cam Newton, Anthony Davis, Dave Bliss, Baylor rapes, Penn State/Syracuse molesters, Reggie Bush payoffs, point shaving, academic frauds, etc...and those are just the ones that got caught and made public. Where's the tiniest hint that these people can be trusted??

We have seen the horrible sleaze, corruption & lying under head coaches like Samson, Calipari, Pitino, Pearl and many others that NCAA looks the other way and then those guys are they face of NCAA and get put into the Hall of Fame. And where do the NCAA always seem obsessed about coming down hard? On some kid who kept a few extra bucks on a paycheck that maybe he didn't earn, or a guy get a job, or a coach who bought a hamburger for a player!

Warning - the new system of using those metrics is just another little trick to put more BCS schools in and keep more little guys out.
The day is coming when there will be two DI Tournaments one for them and one for us...as different as DI & DII...mark my word