NBCSports.com says Wichita State's at-large chances now "slim"

[Da Coach]

Wichita State’s 0-3 week makes chances for at-large bid small

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2015/11/29/wichita-states-0-3-week-makes-chances-for-at-large-bid-small/

I just don't agree with this assessment and think it is an overreaction. First, the strongest likelihood is that Wichita State won't need an at-large bid. But the NCAA takes into consideration things like key injuries, and teams recovering from early season losses when they select at-large teams. So I think there is still plenty of time for them to build a worthy at-large resume'.
The Shockers are currently 2-4, but if they can get Fred Van Vleet and a couple other guys back healthy, they could possibly go the rest of the season with just a small number of additional losses. If they can get by their next game at St. Louis, which I think they will, then 5 of their last 6 non-conference games are in Wichita, followed by the next 18 games in the watered-down MVC (currently the 15th rated conference in RPI- lowest in many years). Even if they get upset in the MVC Tournament, which I believe is not likely, they could be at worst 25-8 or 24-9 by tournament time (and it's feasible they could lose as few as just 2 or 3 more games) and deserving of an at-large bid. But obviously it's all contingent on getting their team back healthy.
It's also a good possibility that these 4 early-season losses will be teams that will be in the NCAA.

[PhiAlphaBoy]

I'm with you on this Coach. Wichita, like other BCS powerhouses, have earned the right to be a bubble team and still get into the Dance. If they finish as you've predicted - and I think they will - there's no way they get left out.

[Stickboy46]

Wichita State??™s 0-3 week makes chances for at-large bid small

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2015/11/29/wichita-states-0-3-week-makes-chances-for-at-large-bid-small/

I just don't agree with this assessment and think it is an overreaction. First, the strongest likelihood is that Wichita State won't need an at-large bid. But the NCAA takes into consideration things like key injuries, and teams recovering from early season losses when they select at-large teams. So I think there is still plenty of time for them to build a worthy at-large resume'.
The Shockers are currently 2-4, but if they can get Fred Van Vleet and a couple other guys back healthy, they could possibly go the rest of the season with just a small number of additional losses. If they can get by their next game at St. Louis, which I think they will, then 5 of their last 6 non-conference games are in Wichita, followed by the next 18 games in the watered-down MVC (currently the 15th rated conference in RPI- lowest in many years). Even if they get upset in the MVC Tournament, which I believe is not likely, they could be at worst 25-8 or 24-9 by tournament time (and it's feasible they could lose as few as just 2 or 3 more games) and deserving of an at-large bid. But obviously it's all contingent on getting their team back healthy.
It's also a good possibility that these 4 early-season losses will be teams that will be in the NCAA.

Thank you for posting this. I can't agree more. Its one thing to "not be healthy" by missing one key player. That excuse gets thrown around for a LOT of power 5 teams. Yet, when WSU is missing 3-4 key players including an All-American point guard, it doesn't seem to factor in as an excuse and we now have to win the MVC Tournament. I think we will be fine. The next 2 weeks will have Fred back (hopefully) and Frankamp in. Both are very talented PGs, which is what is killing us now. We have no flow, and other teams can just focus on Baker.

[tornado]

"Wichita State’s 0-3 week makes chances for at-large bid small"....


I just don't agree with this assessment......

well, I think this is becoming a reality...

Of course if they win the MVC tourney- they won't need an at large bid but what this article and another one this morning
at Sports Illustrated are saying - is Wichita's AT-LARGE possibility may already be shot.

With the non-conference games they have remaining - even if they win them all, they are not going to get their non-conference RPI up that much...

Then - as you posted elsewhere- this may be a historically weak year top to bottom in the MVC (MVC ranks 15th) -
with some really bad RPI's (7 of the 10 MVC teams have RPI's of about 200 or worse) - so that it's gonna be hard for Wichita
to get that RPI back up unless they run the table - and even then - there just aren't enough Top-50 RPI opponents left on their schedule.

Right now the NCAA sees Wichita as 1-4 (one of their wins was a DII) with their ONLY WIN being against a 310 RPI team at home!!!
This results in Wichita garnering an RPI of 252 with a Strength of Schedule that's well over 125 -
and, as I said, precious few top rated teams ahead to climb back up the ladder.

They could go 15-3 or 16-2 in Valley play and yet end the season with an RPI of 85, and zero wins over anyone in the TOP 50 -
The NCAA Selection Committee would get assailed and criticized if they gave an at-large bid to a mid-major with those credentials


Look at last year--
the 15th strongest conference was the Big West--
their regular season conference champion was UC-Davis, who had a record of 23-5 and 14-2 in Big West play- entering their conf. tourney- and an RPI in the 50's!
They even had THREE WINS over Top 100 teams (something Wichita does not have)...and of course did NOT get an at-large bid.

[Stickboy46]

well, I think this is becoming a reality...

Of course if they win the MVC tourney- they won't need an at large bid but what this article and another one this morning
at Sports Illustrated are saying - is Wichita's AT-LARGE possibility may already be shot.

With the non-conference games they have remaining - even if they win them all, they are not going to get their non-conference RPI up that much...

Then - as you posted elsewhere- this may be a historically weak year top to bottom in the MVC (MVC ranks 15th) -
with some really bad RPI's (7 of the 10 MVC teams have RPI's of about 200 or worse) - so that it's gonna be hard for Wichita
to get that RPI back up unless they run the table - and even then - there just aren't enough Top-50 RPI opponents left on their schedule.

Right now the NCAA sees Wichita as 1-4 (one of their wins was a DII) with their ONLY WIN being against a 310 RPI team at home!!!
This results in Wichita garnering an RPI of 252 with a Strength of Schedule that's well over 125 -
and, as I said, precious few top rated teams ahead to climb back up the ladder.

They could go 15-3 or 16-2 in Valley play and yet end the season with an RPI of 85, and zero wins over anyone in the TOP 50 -
The NCAA Selection Committee would get assailed and criticized if they gave an at-large bid to a mid-major with those credentials


Look at last year--
the 15th strongest conference was the Big West--
their regular season conference champion was UC-Davis, who had a record of 23-5 and 14-2 in Big West play- entering their conf. tourney- and an RPI in the 50's!
They even had THREE WINS over Top 100 teams (something Wichita does not have)...and of course did NOT get an at-large bid.

All very valid points. I will counter the bottom argument though. WSU is not UC-Davis. Like it or not, the NCAA likes money. WSU, Baker, and Van Vleet are household names now after the last 3 years. WSU has a pretty strong national following in comparison to other mid-majors. WSU will get a benefit of the doubt for that. The same reason that middling Power 5 teams get in even if their RPI and wins don't look good. There is money in having big name schools in the tournament.

[tornado]

...Like it or not, the NCAA likes money.... There is money in having big name schools in the tournament.

...so you're saying NCAA will readily set logic and fairness aside just to make money, huh?

[MacabreMob]

All very valid points. I will counter the bottom argument though. WSU is not UC-Davis. Like it or not, the NCAA likes money. WSU, Baker, and Van Vleet are household names now after the last 3 years. WSU has a pretty strong national following in comparison to other mid-majors. WSU will get a benefit of the doubt for that. The same reason that middling Power 5 teams get in even if their RPI and wins don't look good. There is money in having big name schools in the tournament.

...so you're saying NCAA will readily set logic and fairness aside just to make money, huh?

Can't agree with this and won't.

Wichita St with a weak resume will not get a bid to the NCAA based on being a household name and national following.

Let's not forget... the NCAA owns and runs the NIT.

Wichita St with a packed house on their home floor and a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT and then a following to NIT Final 4 in New York.... yea, that makes more sense.

[Stickboy46]

Can't agree with this and won't.

Wichita St with a weak resume will not get a bid to the NCAA based on being a household name and national following.

Let's not forget... the NCAA owns and runs the NIT.

Wichita St with a packed house on their home floor and a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT and then a following to NIT Final 4 in New York.... yea, that makes more sense.

Yes and no. I think we will have to agree to disagree. It's not just WSU's name. Its Baker and Van Vleet. There has been insane amount of coverage on them over the last 3 years. It's the senior All-American backcourt making their final run in a game dominated by one and dones. Not saying that if WSU has a losing record they will get in. If they are on the bubble ... chances are they get in.

[tornado]

as many times as the NCAA & Selection Committee has screwed the MVC in the past - don't be at all surprised if they find even more ridiculous ways to do it again

[Stickboy46]

as many times as the NCAA & Selection Committee has screwed the MVC in the past - don't be at all surprised if they find even more ridiculous ways to do it again

I definitely won't be "surprised" but I think this year is playing out to maybe be a year that an MVC team gets a benefit of the doubt for once.

[MacabreMob]

Yes and no. I think we will have to agree to disagree. It's not just WSU's name. Its Baker and Van Vleet. There has been insane amount of coverage on them over the last 3 years. It's the senior All-American backcourt making their final run in a game dominated by one and dones. Not saying that if WSU has a losing record they will get in. If they are on the bubble ... chances are they get in.

Yea.... that's how the NCAA Selection Committee decides. Can hear it now on Selection Sunday...

Q: "Can you tell us why Wichita St was one of the last teams in the Tourney?"

A: "Well, you know... Conferences don't get bids... and now, Teams don't get bids - It's the players and their household recognition that gets bids."

[Stickboy46]

Yea.... that's how the NCAA Selection Committee decides. Can hear it now on Selection Sunday...

Q: "Can you tell us why Wichita St was one of the last teams in the Tourney?"

A: "Well, you know... Conferences don't get bids... and now, Teams don't get bids - It's the players and their household recognition that gets bids."

We all know the reasons they state and the reasons they actually use to make the decision are not the same thing.

All they need to throw out there is that WSU passed the "eye test" at the end of the year.

Its about money .. lots and lots of advertising money.

[Da Coach]

Here is a counterpoint opinion from FoxSports-
3 Reasons Wichita State's shockingly bad start won't keep them out of March Madness.

https://twitter.com/FOXSports/status/672876430661804032

[MacabreMob]

Here is a counterpoint opinion from FoxSports-
3 Reasons Wichita State's shockingly bad start won't keep them out of March Madness.
https://twitter.com/FOXSports/status/672876430661804032

States essentially-

#1 Van Fleet WILL return and he is key to the Shockers.

#2 Injuries are hopefully done occurring for this season and "good karma bug" could be coming their way

#3 G Marshall and his coaching ability.

But at the end, the guys states "after 4 losses in the season's first 3 weeks, Wichita State may need to win it's conference tourney if the Shockers want to play in the Big Dance."

[SycamoreFanatic]

The NCAA does not consider last year or previous history. Only the current season when making selections. Yeah right, that is the way they say they do it but everyone knows it is BS. Still, Wichita has not done well winning the conference tourney and I have to agree that they will have to do that this year to secure a bid. Injuries to key players might be considered near the end of the season but these early injuries won't. They might get an at-large with a couple of losses in the conference regular season but those losses better not come against Bradley, Indiana State, Missouri State or a couple of other teams in the league.