2015-16 MVC Preview

[tornado]

Well, someone has to start the talk about next year

but there's a lot of variables....does Wichita lose their coach or any of their key players....who is coming in to coach Bradley .... who are gonna be the impact newcomers...

but here's what appears obvious - please add any thoughts..

1- Wichita State will be the obvious frontrunner. They lose Darius Carter & Tekele Cotton, but I think Van Vleet & Baker return along with Morris, Wessel, and enough others that they're gonna be the favorites again.
They have some good newcomers, too. If Marshall leaves, then things might change a lot.

2- UNI - they lose Tuttle, Buss, & Mitchell so I think they will fall back a bit, but they do return Bohannon, Jesperson, Morgan, & Washpun.
They have agreat coach so pencil them in the top-three barring massive injuries or arrest-type excuses....

3- ISU could compete for 1st or 2nd if they behave and have good shot selection. They return most everyone except Knight, Jones, and Hunter - and I think newcomer Roland Griffin will be one of the league's best freshmen.
But I have a feeling they might have some player turnover between now and March of 2016.

4- then the rest of the Valley drops off from there - but at 4th I have Drake..
I know it's a risk to put them here but they have some talent to build on, some new guys coming in, and they seem like the only guys from the lower 7 teams that are poised for a jump upwards. Every once in while they showed a ton of potential - sweeping us & hanging close 'til late vs. a good Green Bay team.

5- Evansville - good chance they finish above Drake because they have two of the best returning players in Ballentine & Mockevicius but I am going on history here - that even with good players, Marty always seems to get them in at 5th or lower...

6- Loyola - they lose Thomas and Doyle returns and they'll have a lot of seniors (Peterson, Turk, White, James) so they should stay out of Thursday.

7, 8, 9, 10 - I have Indiana State (loses Gant), SIU (loses very little), Bradley (have everyone but Barnes potentially back but who knows), and Missouri State (kinda seems even their own fans are expecting a last place run) - in that order but all could make a serious run for the 10th seed.


as I look over all the incoming players (freshmen & jucos) I really don't see any automatic guys for the All-Frosh or All-Newcomer...
I think the best ones will be Larry Shamet (Wichita), Obediah Church (MSU), InSU's Rickman, Griffin & Kale Abrahamson -
lots of schools, like Bradley, will also be adding more - so time will tell...


Bradley is the super-wild-card for next year because of so many uncertainties...
we don't know a thing yet about the coaching staff and I would be shocked if we have less than 4 player departures...
If the new guys are all juco guys who averaged 6 ppg or freshmen who do not qualify then we're in deep trouble.

[Da Coach]

Gregg Marshall's status may also be key to WSU's hopes for next year.

[tornado]

I thought of a couple more things...

Even though Bradley still hung at #2 in MVC home attendance - the gap was really close with

Bradley- 5726
ISU - 5483
MSU - 5300
UNI - 5170
SIU 4900

BUT - when you look at the final 2 months of the season - the CONFERENCE GAMES

Then the attendance averages are...

Bradley - 6071
ISU - 6044
UNI - 5951
...and so on...

and with Bradley plummeting - while teams like ISU and UNI are on the rise -
I think next year might be the year that Bradley gets knocked out of 2nd place in the MVC attendance race.


Also - given this fact that was discussed elsewhere...

http://bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread.php?p=307779#post307779

Then just maybe I need to tentatively throw UAB into my MVC Preview...
If they are in the Valley in 2015, then they won 20 games, they have a great young nucleus (almost every significant player is a freshman or sophomore!), and they have a good coach...
so I would pencil them in between UNI & ISU battling for one of the Top 3 spots!!

[RoyalShock]

WSU's best candidate for all-frosh team will likely be Markis McDuffie (6'7 SF out of St. Anthony's). Conner Frankamp for all-newcomer. I think Shamet will be very good, but may need more time to adjust and develop than McDuffie. Plus, Shamet will be behind VanVleet, Baker and Frankamp.

[tornado]

Thanks - predicting the newcomers is tough...
as noted elsewhere - Athlon had Mike Shaw as one of the league's top newcomers but picked Tre' Bennett as Newcomer of the Year and neither one made the All-Newcomer Team nor were even close

[BUspartan]

NBAdraft.net has Ron Baker rated 80th, and VanVleet nowhere in the top 100. I can't imagine they'll leave. Wichita should be back regardless of coach, although i wouldn't imagine a Sweet 16 w/o Marshall next year.

[CubbieBear]

I thought of a couple more things...

Even though Bradley still hung at #2 in MVC home attendance - the gap was really close with

Bradley- 5726
ISU - 5483
MSU - 5300
UNI - 5170
SIU 4900

BUT - when you look at the final 2 months of the season - the CONFERENCE GAMES

Then the attendance averages are...

Bradley - 6071
ISU - 6044
UNI - 5951
...and so on...

and with Bradley plummeting - while teams like ISU and UNI are on the rise -
I think next year might be the year that Bradley gets knocked out of 2nd place in the MVC attendance race.


Also - given this fact that was discussed elsewhere...

http://bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread.php?p=307779#post307779

Then just maybe I need to tentatively throw UAB into my MVC Preview...
If they are in the Valley in 2015, then they won 20 games, they have a great young nucleus (almost every significant player is a freshman or sophomore!), and they have a good coach...
so I would pencil them in between UNI & ISU battling for one of the Top 3 spots!!

And...as we all know--those attendance numbers are not comparing apples to apples (butts in seats vs paid tickets)--our attendance is really worse than it appears

[Da Coach]

And...as we all know--those attendance numbers are not comparing apples to apples (butts in seats vs paid tickets)--our attendance is really worse than it appears

In some ways, Bradley's situation is actually more favorable, despite the big drop in attendance. Even with thousands fewer attending BU games, a very high percentage of those attending are season-ticket buyers. Schools much prefer those kind of fans. In Bradley's case, many of them are long-time season ticker buyers, meaning they are highly likely to keep renewing, despite the bad state of basketball. Plus a high percentage of them are maintenance-paying season tickets, meaning the revenues that are generated by a 5,500-6,000 average at BU are much higher than the 5,000 attendances at SIU, ISU, MSU, and even UNI.
In addition, the BU numbers include only a small number of student tickets, which are essentially given away, and when the perks like transportation, snacks, tee shirts, and prizes are figured into those student tickets, Bradley (and other schools) actually lose money on them. UNI, ISU, MSU, and SIU draw much larger numbers of students, and a lot fewer season ticket buyers and maintenance-paying fans, which means the actually profitable portion of their attendance is much smaller that Bradley's.


The one big negative associated with the big drop in attendance at BU is that, being a private school, the athletic department budget plans for, and needs that revenue from ticket sales and maintenance much more than the state schools. The state schools can always requisition more money from the general university funds, which they do all the time, to pay their expenses and support the non-revenue sports. Bradley doesn't have that luxury, so these last few years have really hurt Bradley athletics, and represent the immeasurable fallout of the moves made by the outgoing admins. It's just too bad it was allowed to go on for way too long, and the local sycophantic media looked the other way and enabled it.

[CubbieBear]

I understand the maintenance $$ certainly helps--even if many of those folks do not attend the money is still paid to BU--but I assume ISU MSU SIU and others also get revenue from maintenance for season ticket holders --plus the 6K or so (that are in attendance) generate revenue for parking--concessions-etc.

Just curious--does BU get a cut of the parking/concessions etc from the 2 or 3K or whatever actually attend the CC?? I do not know the answer to this---if so--how muc?? I know some of this has been discussed previously (but I do not recall what was said) when there were discussions of returning to campus --where BU would get parking and concession revenue etc--but then only 5K capacity (and maintenance fees)?

[Da Coach]

Bradley does not get a direct share of any of the concessions or parking. However, the rate that Bradley pays for each game they play at the Carver Arena is negotiated and calculated based on those extra factors.

[CubbieBear]

Ok--thanks.

Just so I am clear--IF Bradley wound up playing games at the RC--they would not have to pay each game for the privilege to play there (other than the expenses they would incur from staffing it with their own maintenance staff etc)--and they would generate their own revenue from parking--concessions--etc---students could walk to games--AND they would play in the same venue where they practice??

[Da Coach]

Yes. Based on things Ken Kavanagh told me about 6 years ago (things may have changed a little since then) Bradley needs to draw at least 5500 to 6000 to break even considering the cost of playing at Carver and the fact they get no share of the ancillary revenues.
And yes, revenue generated by each game they play at the RC is almost all profit, since they already own the facilities, and most of the workers there are volunteers. So even a crowd of 2000 at the RC is better for Bradley than a crowd of 6000 at Carver Arena. You can see why the outgoing administration and the coach have said publicly that they would like to play all the home games at the RC.

[CubbieBear]

Thanks Coach---have we already signed a new contract at Carver for the upcoming season??

[Da Coach]

With all the changes at Bradley, I do not know if it ever got finalized and signed.

[CubbieBear]

Ok--thanks--that actually may be one positive part of this transition (mess) that could benefit BU-- by keeping our options open for now as things shake out and allow our new leaders to offer their input on the benefits (financial/team/student etc) of moving games back to campus.