1 more MVC game Sunday, 2/23

[Da Coach]

Illinois State plays at Northern Iowa at 4:00 PM today (Sunday, 2/23).
The game is on the MVC-TV Network-

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/scoreboard?date=20140223&confId=18

[tornado]

ISU trails UNI over in Cedar Falls 40-24 at the half - and they are in deep trouble ....
as Reggie Lynch got his 1st foul 12 seconds into the game, and has 3 in limited playing time in the first half.

If ISU loses then they are 8-8 and only a game ahead of Bradley (BU is 7-9)
Their two remaining games are at SIU and vs. Indiana State.

[Da Coach]

Illinois State is doing their Jekyll & Hyde impersonation again. They trail 40-24 at halftime, and are shooting just 22% from the field. UNI scored the first 10 points and has never trailed.
ISU's starting lineup has only scored 6 points so far. Reserve Zach Lofton is the only Redbird who showed up. He has 14 of ISU's 24 points, and is the only player with more than 1 basket.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400500131

[tornado]

ISU drops their road contest at UNI 72-59
They shot a bit better in the 2nd half and got the team shooting pct up over 40%
They also appear to have picked up another technical (Lofton), and despite the foul trouble with Lynch held their own on rebounding

[bigjimmy]

UNI's win means we'll have to win both games this week against Wichita and Drake to have a chance to finish above 7th. We lose all tie breakers against ISU Red, SIU, UNI and MSU so we need to get to 9-9 in the Valley to have a chance and have 1 or more of those 4 teams lose their last 2 games to finish at 8-10. Unless something changes in the RPI rankings this is the deal. We'll finish 7th if Drake loses at Evansville or if they beat the Aces we'll have to beat the Bulldogs in Des Moines on Saturday.

[Big Lance]

This is true if it's a 2 way tie. But it isn't out of the question to have at least 3 teams finish at 8-10 and then it goes to a mini round robin of their records against each other. Other than MSU, BU has split w everyone else this scenario. Not everyone has a .500 record against the other teams, at least not yet. So BU could lose to WSU and still finish 6th if math is right

[Da Coach]

Here is the MVC tiebreaker formula-

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

I haven't taken the time to look at each permutation, but I suspect Big Lance is probably correct that there may still be a scenario where we might escape Thursday night with a 1-1 record in the last 2 games.

[Da Coach]

Here is the MVC tiebreaker formula-

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

I haven't taken the time to look at each permutation...

Someone at the PJ Star apparently has figured out all the permutations. Dave Reynolds has them here-

http://blogs.pjstar.com/pressrow/?p=2876

He says that Bradley could finish in any one of 5 positions: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8

Things will become a bit clearer after tomorrow and Wednesday.

[pauly616]

MVC fans have figured out all the possibilities.

https://www.mvcfans.com/wp

We only have 20 percent chance of staying out of Thursday. If you look at the weighted percentages it drops down to 3%.

[tornado]

that's using the assumption that a win by Bradley over Wichita is as likely as a loss...

but then the guy also has a weighted option that even if we have a 10% chance of beating Wichita - it reduces our probability of staying out of Thursday to just 3%

[Tulsa Brave]

This is true if it's a 2 way tie. But it isn't out of the question to have at least 3 teams finish at 8-10 and then it goes to a mini round robin of their records against each other. Other than MSU, BU has split w everyone else this scenario. Not everyone has a .500 record against the other teams, at least not yet. So BU could lose to WSU and still finish 6th if math is right

Yes we can finish in a 3+ team tie at 8-10, but we will always come up short in the tiebreaker if that happens. Our only hope to avoid Thursday is to finish 9-9, and even that does not guarantee it.

[bigjimmy]

I didn't see the three way tie situation on the MVC.org website. Just that the non conference strength of schedule would determine tie breakers. If 3 or more teams are tied the regular season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a mini round robin. Teams shall be ranked according to the position in such a round robin. Our best hope is for ISU Red and UNI to lose their last 2 games which would put them at 8-10. Assuming we lose to Wichita and beat Drake that would tie us with those 2 teams. In that scenario the round robin records would be us and ISU at 3-3 and UNI at 2-4. This would make us the 6th seed. Root hard for SIU, who plays at UNI and at home against ISU, and for ISU Blue, who plays at ISU Red and at home against UNI.

[Tulsa Brave]

I didn't see the three way tie situation on the MVC.org website. Just that the non conference strength of schedule would determine tie breakers. If 3 or more teams are tied the regular season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a mini round robin. Teams shall be ranked according to the position in such a round robin. Our best hope is for ISU Red and UNI to lose their last 2 games which would put them at 8-10. Assuming we lose to Wichita and beat Drake that would tie us with those 2 teams. In that scenario the round robin records would be us and ISU at 3-3 and UNI at 2-4. This would make us the 6th seed. Root hard for SIU, who plays at UNI and at home against ISU, and for ISU Blue, who plays at ISU Red and at home against UNI.

Nope...we'd all be 2-2 in that scenario, and lose on the SOS tiebreaker. The same thing happens in any other 3+ way tie we could possibly be in at 8-10. It looks like you are counting records against SIU, but they would be 10-8 and not part of the tie.