More evidence the MVC is down this year

[JMM28]

OK, I'll simplify my argument-
The MVC RPI raw number has dropped since the conference season started.
The MVC is 9th now, but very close to falling into 10th (it could easily happen since most of the MVC schools are matched up with lower RPI teams in the BB)
9th is still lower than 8th (where the MVC was last year).
Right now, we have only 1 clear NCAA bid, as the RPI of the top at-large candidate teams has slipped.
Not many years ago, the Valley had 4 teams in the NCAA, and there have been multiple years we have had teams in the Sweet 16. I don't see it happening this year.

IMO, the MVC is down this year.

You are free to differ.

The MVC is not going to fall to 10th.
9th is lower than 8th but still right at the historical average over the past 10 years for which we have the info available.
The MVC has a shot to have 3 teams make the tournament still. That would be the highest since 2006.

I see Creighton and Wichita as having a legit chance at making a run in the NCAA. That all depends on who makes it, what teams they draw, and what bracket they wind up in.

IMO, the MVC is just about average this year.

[BuAlum03]

I guess I don't see the point in even arguing this. Is it down? Yes, no, who cares? It was worse last year and we are doing better this year in a tougher conference. All signs point to a strong direction for the program.

[JMM28]

ha - Butler's RPI would improve every other RPI in the league because they all would have to play 'em a couple times ..we'll never know how much but you threw out the ridiculous argument that conference realignment might have hurt the MVC's ranking and then gave zero evidence..

I gave solid and unquestionable evidence that the only conference changes that would have made any difference at all have BENEFITTED the Valley's RPI ranking

A basic understanding of how the RPI works would help your case. Your wild speculation is based on nothing but the thoughts of your own head, not "evidence" of any sort.

FACT - Butler would not lift the Horizon league up past the MVC. For one with a basic understanding of statistics such as yourself i will put it simply.

The MVC is closer to overtaking the #5 spot in conference RPI than being passed by Butler. If you added Butler to the MVC, would they be better than the A10, Pac12, SEC, and Big 12?

And with that I am done with your argument.

[Tulsa Brave]

I guess I don't see the point in even arguing this. Is it down? Yes, no, who cares? It was worse last year and we are doing better this year in a tougher conference. All signs point to a strong direction for the program.

I don't see why RPI is being used as any one with any kind of statistical background at all would be using Pomeroy instead if they really were trying to show the strength of the conference as compared to past years. Statistical gurus cringe at the RPI...

[Bravesfan]

Down from 2006? You don't say.

But probably up from 2011, when regular season champ MSU didn't get a bid, or other recent one bid years.

Yes, the top teams have obviously fallen a bit by losing to bottom feeders, but the flip side is those bottom feeders rose quite a bit and now there's only one team outside the top 200 (#219 MSU).

Still about 20 or so commissioners who would love to trade places with Elgin, and arguably a few more. The A-16 has really only 2 teams on the bubble right now, despite a higher ranking.

That was what I was going to say as well. When the bottom feeders start beating the top teams, their aren't that many real bad teams in the conference. However, that said, there could be fewer NCAA Tournament bids as well. Still, despite are ranking potentially falling to 10th, we still have three teams well within the at-large discussion right now. So there is potential that we can finish strong.

[Tulsa Brave]

Strength of the MVC according to Pomeroy the past 11 seasons. Regardless of what some may think, the conference Butler or anyone else is in has absolutely no bearing on how strong the MVC is. This season is right in the middle...6th out of 11, and just behind #5...a lot closer to 5 than 7. 05-06 was not the strongest year for the MVC...it was strongest at the top, but far from it at the bottom.

1. 06-07... .7793
2. 07-08... .7543
3. 04-05... .7254
4. 05-06... .7192
5. 09-10... .6911
6. 12-13... .6848
7. 11-12... .6370
8. 03-04... .6356
9. 08-09... .6176
10. 10-11... .5799
11. 02-03... .5402

[LittleBrave]

It's kind of funny that some say the Valley is really slipping, but fail to acknowledge the reality that our team performance was slipping since the '07 season.
This argument is totally based on perspective...IN MY OPINION.

My take?
Just another ho-hum year in the Valley with a potential of 3 teams making the NCAA tournament. It's very odd considering the league RPI close to #10.
The seasons in the mid 2000s were the exception and not the rule. Better start getting used to it if you haven't already.

[Mikovio]

Strength of the MVC according to Pomeroy the past 11 seasons. Regardless of what some may think, the conference Butler or anyone else is in has absolutely no bearing on how strong the MVC is. This season is right in the middle...6th out of 11, and just behind #5...a lot closer to 5 than 7. 05-06 was not the strongest year for the MVC...it was strongest at the top, but far from it at the bottom.

1. 06-07... .7793
2. 07-08... .7543
3. 04-05... .7254
4. 05-06... .7192
5. 09-10... .6911
6. 12-13... .6848
7. 11-12... .6370
8. 03-04... .6356
9. 08-09... .6176
10. 10-11... .5799
11. 02-03... .5402

That's certainly useful. But I'll add, the way I look at it, and I think the way most people look at it, is that a conference's overall strength is measured disproportionately more by the strength of its best teams than its worst teams.

Big Ten football isn't Indiana and Minnesota. It's defined by the play of Ohio State and Michigan. Indiana could go winless and it would barely budge the nation's impression of the conference's strength. Michigan or Ohio State winning the national title though has a huge impact.
Likewise, SEC football isn't Kentucky and Mississippi. It's defined by the play of Florida and Alabama.


By that token, I'd definitely rank this year ahead of 2010, even if it's slightly ahead by average, just because we have 3 teams in the top 42 of the RPI and two teams that have spent a majority of the season ranked.

[DeltaBrave03]

I guess I don't see the point in even arguing this. Is it down? Yes, no, who cares? It was worse last year and we are doing better this year in a tougher conference. All signs point to a strong direction for the program.

Because it provides some the opportunity to argue we aren't as improved as our record would indicate.

[tornado]

the "eye test" says that all of college basketball is down and the Valley is down with it...
only three teams shoot over 45% and 70% of the teams hit less than 35% of their threes..
check the offensive stats yourself - there's really never been a year any worse - and only one since the mid-90's even comes close

[Bravesfan]

It's kind of funny that some say the Valley is really slipping, but fail to acknowledge the reality that our team performance was slipping since the '07 season.
This argument is totally based on perspective...IN MY OPINION.

My take?
Just another ho-hum year in the Valley with a potential of 3 teams making the NCAA tournament. It's very odd considering the league RPI close to #10.
The seasons in the mid 2000s were the exception and not the rule. Better start getting used to it if you haven't already.

Exactly. Which again confirms the rule that "teams earn bids, not conferences". Just because the Valley is close to 10th place does not mean that three bids would be impossible.

[Bravesfan]

the "eye test" says that all of college basketball is down and the Valley is down with it...
only three teams shoot over 45% and 70% of the teams hit less than 35% of their threes..
check the offensive stats yourself - there's really never been a year any worse - and only one since the mid-90's even comes close

Right, which means despite this the Valley still might get three teams into the tournament. But there's still a long way to go of course.

[Old Coach]

the "eye test" says that all of college basketball is down and the Valley is down with it...
only three teams shoot over 45% and 70% of the teams hit less than 35% of their threes..
check the offensive stats yourself - there's really never been a year any worse - and only one since the mid-90's even comes close

Is shooting down, or is defense up?

[tornado]

I think the answer is easy to see

[JMM28]

the "eye test" says that all of college basketball is down and the Valley is down with it...
only three teams shoot over 45% and 70% of the teams hit less than 35% of their threes..
check the offensive stats yourself - there's really never been a year any worse - and only one since the mid-90's even comes close

What eye are you using?