More evidence the MVC is down this year

[Da Coach]

The MVC remains in the 9th slot in conference RPI, but is dropping and in danger of falling to 10th place. The Valley needs a strong performance in the BracketBuster to keep from dropping.-

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Both Creighton's and Wichita State's RPI have dropped, and the MVC now has no team in the top 30, and only 3 teams in the top 100-

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html

By comparison- in 2006, perhaps the strongest year the MVC has had in the last couple decades, there were 6 MVC teams in the top 40 in RPI.

[Mikovio]

Down from 2006? You don't say.

But probably up from 2011, when regular season champ MSU didn't get a bid, or other recent one bid years.

Yes, the top teams have obviously fallen a bit by losing to bottom feeders, but the flip side is those bottom feeders rose quite a bit and now there's only one team outside the top 200 (#219 MSU).

Still about 20 or so commissioners who would love to trade places with Elgin, and arguably a few more. The A-16 has really only 2 teams on the bubble right now, despite a higher ranking.

[Da Coach]

Down from 2006? You don't say.

But probably up from 2011, when regular season champ MSU didn't get a bid, or other recent one bid years.

Yes, the top teams have obviously fallen a bit by losing to bottom feeders, but the flip side is those bottom feeders rose quite a bit and now there's only one team outside the top 200 (#219 MSU).

Still about 20 or so commissioners who would love to trade places with Elgin, and arguably a few more. The A-16 has really only 2 teams on the bubble right now, despite a higher ranking.

Down from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. But probably minimally up from 2011, and 2012.

[JMM28]

The MVC remains in the 9th slot in conference RPI, but is dropping and in danger of falling to 10th place. The Valley needs a strong performance in the BracketBuster to keep from dropping.-

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Both Creighton's and Wichita State's RPI have dropped, and the MVC now has no team in the top 30, and only 3 teams in the top 100-

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html

By comparison- in 2006, perhaps the strongest year the MVC has had in the last couple decades, there were 6 MVC teams in the top 40 in RPI.

This isn't a fair comparison. To have a fair comparison you would have to look to see what the changes to the PAC10, A10, MWC, SEC, ACC, B1G, Big12, and Big East have done to the conference RPI.

The MVC is the only league among the top 9 that has stayed exactly the same.

And the MVC will finish the season as the #9 conference in the land which isn't too bad all things considered.

I do believe the MVC is down versus 2006, but that was an exception not the rule. The MVC is right about where it has been over the past 15 years or so.

[Mikovio]

2008, 2009 and 2010 all had 1 or 0 teams in the top 60. By contrast, we have 3 top 60 teams in 2013, with 2 more in the top 70. Looking at it, 2008 was probably deeper than this year, but 2009 and 2010 look objectively worse.

I'm going by the Pomeroy ratings because I can't find historical RPIs.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2009

[JMM28]

2008, 2009 and 2010 all had 1 or 0 teams in the top 60. By contrast, we have 3 top 60 teams in 2013, with 2 more in the top 70. Looking at it, 2008 was probably deeper than this year, but 2009 and 2010 look objectively worse.

I'm going by the Pomeroy ratings because I can't find historical RPIs.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2009

Here are historical RPI numbers.
http://realtimerpi.com/2011-2012/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #8
http://realtimerpi.com/2010-2011/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #12
http://realtimerpi.com/2009-2010/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #9
http://realtimerpi.com/2008-2009/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #9
http://realtimerpi.com/2007-2008/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #8
http://realtimerpi.com/2006-2007/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #6
http://realtimerpi.com/2005-2006/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #6
http://realtimerpi.com/2004-2005/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #8
http://realtimerpi.com/2003-2004/rpi_mvc_Men.html - #11


The average of all of those years..... 8.55...

[Da Coach]

But they are close to falling into 10th, which will happen if the MVC doesn't do well in the BB.

And the MVC finished 8th in RPI last year. That is better than 9th, IMO.

Saying that it's not fair to compare one year to another because other conferences might have gotten better is like saying when Bradley went from 4th in 2010 to 9th in 2011 it isn't fair to say they got worse. Maybe every other team just got better. Some may believe that, but IMO, that means they got worse.

[JMM28]

But they are close to falling into 10th, which will happen if the MVC doesn't do well in the BB.

And the MVC finished 8th in RPI last year. That is better than 9th, IMO.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MVC.html - they seem to think that expected MVC rank at the end of the year will be 9.

Last year the PAC12 fell below the MVC because of terrible years from Utah, USC, and Arizona State and the weakness at the top. More years than not the MVC will finish behind the "BCS" conferences.

[tornado]

..And the MVC will finish the season as the #9 conference in the land which ....

well - the conference realignments have helped our RPI way more than anything else...

no...it "isn't too bad all things considered"...but when did we start settling for "not too bad"...and the only reason we're as high as #9 is because a couple conferences that would be right where we're at lost good teams...

even our #9 conference RPI ranking is fortunate since we're about the trickle down to #10 and only a horrid year for the CUSA PLUS the Horizon's loss of Butler & the WAC's loss of Boise State keeps us from challenging for #12 or 13

[JMM28]

Saying that it's not fair to compare one year to another because other conferences might have gotten better is like saying when Bradley went from 4th in 2010 to 9th in 2011 it isn't fair to say they got worse. Maybe every other team just got better. Some may believe that, but IMO, that means they got worse.

The conference team roster is the constant. The team makeup, coach, etc. is the variable.

And if I wanted to validate your argument, I would still point to the average conference rank of 8.55 over the past 10 years to show that the MVC is actually performing at its average place in the college basketball world.

So either way, take your pick?

[tornado]

btw - had we finished down at #12 (had Butler & BSU buoyed their respective conferences) that's the lowest conference RPI I believe we've had going back to the Molinari era..

[JMM28]

well - the conference realignments have helped our RPI way more than anything else...

no...it "isn't too bad all things considered"...but when did we start settling for "not too bad"...and the only reason we're as high as #9 is because a couple conferences that would be right where we're at lost good teams...

even our #9 conference RPI ranking is fortunate since we're about the trickle down to #10 and only a horrid year for the CUSA PLUS the Horizon's loss of Butler & the WAC's loss of Boise State keeps us from challenging for #12 or 13

I am getting my arguments confused.

A #9 ranking is about the average (within .5) of MVC ranks over the past 10 years.

The MVC will stay at #9 at the end of the year.

The CUSA has historically been behind the MVC a good majority of years. They are having a horrid year because they aren't a very good conference.

The Horizon isn't behind the MVC because of losing Butler. It is behind the MVC because that is where it always is and Milwaukee has an RPI in the 300's. Butler wouldn't make up that much of a difference.

I am not even going to address the WAC because that is just simply too many moving parts and, quite frankly, ridiculous.

[JMM28]

btw - had we finished down at #12 (had Butler & BSU buoyed their respective conferences) that's the lowest conference RPI I believe we've had going back to the Molinari era..

They wouldn't have. Period. You are making up something that just isn't true.

Boise's stellar 54 RPI isn't going to make up for San Jose State, Texas State, UTSA, and Seattle being below 225.

And even if you add Butler's current RPI to the Horizon, it wouldn't pass the MVC. AND Butler's RPI would be lowered significantly without their higher RPI A10 games...

[Da Coach]

I am getting my arguments confused...

OK, I'll simplify my argument-
The MVC RPI raw number has dropped since the conference season started.
The MVC is 9th now, but very close to falling into 10th (it could easily happen since most of the MVC schools are matched up with lower RPI teams in the BB)
9th is still lower than 8th (where the MVC was last year).
Right now, we have only 1 clear NCAA bid, as the RPI of the top at-large candidate teams has slipped.
Not many years ago, the Valley had 4 teams in the NCAA, and there have been multiple years we have had teams in the Sweet 16. I don't see it happening this year.

IMO, the MVC is down this year.

You are free to differ.

[tornado]

They wouldn't have. Period. You are making up something that just isn't true.

Boise's stellar 54 RPI isn't going to make up for San Jose State, Texas State, UTSA, and Seattle being below 225.

And even if you add Butler's current RPI to the Horizon, it wouldn't pass the MVC. AND Butler's RPI would be lowered significantly without their higher RPI A10 games...

ha - Butler's RPI would improve every other RPI in the league because they all would have to play 'em a couple times ..we'll never know how much but you threw out the ridiculous argument that conference realignment might have hurt the MVC's ranking and then gave zero evidence..

I gave solid and unquestionable evidence that the only conference changes that would have made any difference at all have BENEFITTED the Valley's RPI ranking