InSU Bubble Watch

[BUBalum05]

It almost was debated in another thread before the hijacked thread got further hijacked.

What's it going to take for Indiana State to make the NCAA tourney?

Currently (14-7) overall
3rd in the MVC at (7-3)
RealtimeRPI 38, SOS 43
CBS RPI 45, SOS 38

Big wins vs Miami, Ole Miss, and at Wichita St.
Bad losses at SIU and at Morehead St
Top Losses to New Mexico by 9, SDSU by 7, at Creighton by 13, at UCLA by 27

Remaining Schedule:
2-02 at Drake
2-06 Creighton
2-09 Southern Ill.
2-12 at Missouri State
2-16 at Bradley
2-19 Wichita St.
2-22/3 Bracketbuster Home Game
2-27 Drake
3-02 at Evansville

I think anything more than losing one to Creighton or Wichita St and anything short of semi-finals in MVC Tourney pops their bubble. Bracketbuster is a must win at home. What would be interesting is if they beat Creighton and Wichita St but lose to someone else, perhaps at Bradley or at Evansville.

Does 13-5 in the MVC plus exit to CU/WSU in MVC tourney get you consideration for an invite to the big dance?

[LittleBrave]

I think anything more than losing one to Creighton or Wichita St and anything short of semi-finals in MVC Tourney pops their bubble. Bracketbuster is a must win at home. What would be interesting is if they beat Creighton and Wichita St but lose to someone else, perhaps at Bradley or at Evansville.

Does 13-5 in the MVC plus exit to CU/WSU in MVC tourney get you consideration for an invite to the big dance?

If they beat CU and WSU, but lose to someone else, win their B'busters, and win 1 game in the MVC tourney, not getting an invite would be major snubbery, though we've seen it before!

That's 5 wins vs. currently (and maybe still in March) ranked opponents - how many times has anyone done THAT from the Valley?

Need to take care of bizness at Drake this weekend unless they plan on winning all but 1 of their remaining games until Arch Madness.

[PTownHawkeye]

Just saw that Lunardi has them in the field, and not even as one of the last four in. Wow...didn't realize they had that strong of a resume...

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Da Coach]

Lunardi's projections at this stage do not take into account any tournament upsets which always happen, and which take at-large bids away from deserving teams.

[Bravesfan]

I still think they can lose one more game to a team behind them in the standings and still get in. The Morehead State loss will probably not be much of a factor since it occurred so early in the season. The SIU loss OTOH occurred much more recently and to a team that looks worse and worse by the day. Still one terrible loss should not undo the whole body of work, but those three top 25 wins are very strong as well. It shows they are capable of beating anyone in the country on any given night, but maybe not consistent enough to make a long run in the NCAA Tournament. This should be an interesting case for the selection committee, and as was stated, this weekend's game at Drake is a must win for ISU. And as also stated, upsets in all the conference tournaments will play a huge role in their selection process as well.

[Bravesfan]

Here's one more article in favor of Indiana State's at-large chances, this time by Andy Katz:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/katz_andy/id/8903127/indiana-state-sycamores-hope-bracketbrusters-help-march-goals-college-basketball

It looks like the Sycamores will get shafted with the Bracketbusters this year. But hopefully for them they have at least one more win over Creighton and/or Wichita State in them.

[tornado]

has any Valley team since 2000 gotten an at-large bid with an RPI over 32?
ISU even got passed over at 37...
historically we have seen that the trend for at least 6-8 years is to take the BCS schools whose RPI's are 40 and they finish 4th, 5th or 6th
in their conferences, before they'd give a nod to a mid-major with an RPI even over 30 who finshes runnerup.
Thus I say Indiana State better not even give a thought of what they need to do to get an at-large bid -
they had better aim to secure the auto-bid or they might be hosting an NIT game.

[Bravesfan]

has any Valley team since 2000 gotten an at-large bid with an RPI over 32?
ISU even got passed over at 37...
historically we have seen that the trend for at least 6-8 years is to take the BCS schools whose RPI's are 40 and they finish 4th, 5th or 6th
in their conferences, before they'd give a nod to a mid-major with an RPI even over 30 who finshes runnerup.
Thus I say Indiana State better not even give a thought of what they need to do to get an at-large bid -
they had better aim to secure the auto-bid or they might be hosting an NIT game.

It depends. Do you mean at-large bids from teams that did not win the Valley regular season? Regardless, Evansville got an at-large bid with a 50 RPI in 1999, and Southern Illinois got an at-large bid with a 50 RPI in 2002. UNI had a 37 RPI in 2005 and did not win the Valley regular season when they received an at-large bid. So it has occasionally happened, but mainly for Valley regular season winners. And the one time UNI received theirs via the at-large route, it was barely above 32. So yes, despite all the hype they are receiving, Indiana State will feel a lot better if they can take care of business themselves. That said though, they still do have one of the best resumes I have seen from a Valley contender in quite a long time, in terms of top 25 wins.

[Da Coach]

Indiana State's at-large chances took a big hit tonight with an overtime loss at Drake-

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/boxscore?gid=201302020170

BTW, the webserver was offline for the last hour- sorry

[BSSFan#1]

Losing to a team with rpi around 150 definitely hurts. Next game vs Creighton is ultra important for Indiana State.

[Old Coach]

Pop!

[Tulsa Brave]

Indiana State's RPI fell to 52 with the loss tonight. They probably need a 7-1 finish now to have much of a shot.

[Bravesfan]

Just got finished watching the end of that game. It looks like no one wants the Valley outside of Creighton after today! Got to say that Indiana St. probably used up their final "mulligan" today.

[BSSFan#1]

Indiana State has home dates with Creighton and Wichita State. Those are must wins for ISU. Road dates with Missouri State, Bradley & Evansville are also key for a NCAA bid.

Quality win against possible ACC champ Miami(FL) will look glossy but the other big win against Ole Miss looks a bit less stellar after Rebels dropped a home game to Kentucky and lost by 14 at Florida. Ole Miss has a game coming up at Missouri so another loss is likely.

February 19 game vs. Wichita State might be the nail in the coffin for the team that loses the game and put that team in position of winning Arch Madness to secure a NCAA bid.

[LittleBrave]

Current RPI: 42

Big wins: vs Miami, Ole Miss, at Wichita St., vs. Creighton (by 20!)
Bad losses: at SIU and at Morehead St, at Drake (?)
Top Losses: to New Mexico by 9, SDSU by 7, at Creighton by 13, at UCLA by 27

Remaining Schedule:
2-09 Southern Ill.
2-12 at Missouri State
2-16 at Bradley
2-19 Wichita St.
2-22/3 Bracketbuster Home Game
2-27 Drake
3-02 at Evansville

With the road loss @ Drake and home win vs. Creighton, this puts them in a slightly better position than this time last week after beating the Shox on the road.
Unfortunately, the stock for WSU has gone way down.

Not going to be easy for da Trees, but I see them winning 2 straight before going down to the Braves.

Winning 2 of their final 3 road games and beating either CU or WSU once more will go a long way in helping their cause.

I would say 12-6 (with B'busters win) and winning 2 in St. Louis, OR 13-5 (with B'busters win) and winning 1 in St. Louis puts them on a strong bubble regardless.