Long range speculation - how many bids?

[tornado]

what do you think...

-how many bids will the Valley get?

-how many bids will the Big Ten get?


...I had thought all along that the Valley might be at least a 2-bid league - with Creighton for sure even if they lose in the MVC Tourney - but I also thought Wichita State - given they have a Top 20 RPI currently...
But - beyond that I worry that ISU's inconsistency, plus their RPI in the 40's definitely threaten their stance as a 3rd Valley team in - given that the NCAA has NOT been kind to the MVC the past decade....and on top of that - in the last 5 years - the MVC has not exactly been gangbusters in the NCAA Tourney.

Now - we have multiple injuries on the Wichita State team and I wonder if a string of bad losses could even hurt them enough to start thinking back to just one Valley bid if the Jays win in St. Louis?



..The Big Ten is very interesting - everyone knowns that Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State were going to be in the NCAA Tourney unless the Mayan calendar was right...

but now we see Illinois, Minnesota, and even Iowa all having far better seasons than many expected.
Right now the Big Ten looks to be at least a 6 or 7-bid league barring disaster to any of these aforementioned teams -
Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin - look to be out of the picture unless any of them surprise by March and end up among the top 6 in the league...

Penn State & Purdue are both dismal disappointments - and I think they are both hoping to finish around .500 so they can at least get a shot at New York in the NIT.

So my guess is 2 for the Valley and 7 for the Big Ten

[Gary the Gargoyle]

I think the MVC is a two bid league, assuming either Creighton or WSU win the tournament. If someone else wins the automatic bid, and both CU and WSU have 25 wins or so, then I could see 3 bids.

I think the Big Ten gets six.

[Bravesfan]

what do you think...

-how many bids will the Valley get?

-how many bids will the Big Ten get?


...I had thought all along that the Valley might be at least a 2-bid league - with Creighton for sure even if they lose in the MVC Tourney - but I also thought Wichita State - given they have a Top 20 RPI currently...
But - beyond that I worry that ISU's inconsistency, plus their RPI in the 40's definitely threaten their stance as a 3rd Valley team in - given that the NCAA has NOT been kind to the MVC the past decade....and on top of that - in the last 5 years - the MVC has not exactly been gangbusters in the NCAA Tourney.

Now - we have multiple injuries on the Wichita State team and I wonder if a string of bad losses could even hurt them enough to start thinking back to just one Valley bid if the Jays win in St. Louis?



..The Big Ten is very interesting - everyone knowns that Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State were going to be in the NCAA Tourney unless the Mayan calendar was right...

but now we see Illinois, Minnesota, and even Iowa all having far better seasons than many expected.
Right now the Big Ten looks to be at least a 6 or 7-bid league barring disaster to any of these aforementioned teams -
Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin - look to be out of the picture unless any of them surprise by March and end up among the top 6 in the league...

Penn State & Purdue are both dismal disappointments - and I think they are both hoping to finish around .500 so they can at least get a shot at New York in the NIT.

So my guess is 2 for the Valley and 7 for the Big Ten

It could be very well just one bid for the Valley unless Wichita St. can find a way to overcome their injuries. Frankly though, I had no idea they would be this good anyway with all of their player losses from last year. So nothing would shock me (no pun intended) regarding this team. We'll see how they handle the tougher Valley schedule the first few games.

Regarding ISU, they did play their way into the at-large discussion with their great road win at Dayton. But obviously they need some more quality Valley wins to get more serious at-large consideration. A top 2 finish in the Valley might get them in because they will probably have to beat Creighton and/or Wichita St. at least a couple of times to accomplish that.

Obviously UNI has been a colossal disappointment so far this year, and it looks like they did overschedule, somewhat reminiscent of what happened to Bradley in 1999 when Rob Dye and Jerome Robertson were expected to take us to the NCAA Tournament. Instead Bradley went 3-8 in the nonconference season, and despite a late run to the Valley Tournament final, they fell just short of an NCAA Tournament bid and finished just one game over .500 for the season. UNI is in slightly better shape, but no real great wins except for their win against George Mason, and the jury is still out how good they will be this year. They still can grab a decent win against St. Mary's, but that won't be enough to compensate for all their earlier losses.

Amazingly, Bradley could play themselves into the at-large discussion with a win over Viriginia Tech tonight, which would most likely lead to a shot at Colorado St. tomorrow. I know we have a long way to go, but they would be in better shape than UNI if they win in Vegas tonight!

Right now, unless Wichita St. can stay afloat, ISU and/or Bradley will have to make a strong run at Creighton for a decent shot at multiple Valley bids (UNI would probably have to win the Valley outright). Otherwise, we better hope for someone to beat Creighton in the Valley tournament this year.

The Big Ten will probably get 7 teams in just because so many are ranked right now, and the great majority of their teams have won 80 percent or more of their non-conference games. This despite a couple of clunker teams at the bottom of the conference. Once again Northwestern is squandering early opportunities for quality non-conference wins outside of their win at Baylor. Injuries and players not developing quickly are hampering their chances at their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, but obviously they will have loads of chances for great conference wins. A 9-9 Big Ten record probably gets them in by default since they will have to beat some ranked teams to get to that record.

Once again, Iowa starts off strong, as does Wisconsin (against some horrible teams), and Nebraska (though looking very inconsistent at times). We'll see how they can handle the rough Big Ten schedule, but look for at least one of these teams to be dancing in March.

[TheAsianSensation]

If we put Wichita at 50/50 and ISU at 25/75 (maybe aggressive estimates), we're probably headed for 2 bids, but 1 bid is within the normal variance. I hesitate to emphasize the "MVC gets 2" because teams get bids, not conferences, and this will be a case where the individual teams will determine how many the MVC gets, regardless of the strength of the MVC.

Big 10 is headed for a monster season in all the computer rankings. They're got a shot a 8 - that league is going to be jammed full with quality win opportunities everywhere.

[Bravesfan]

If we put Wichita at 50/50 and ISU at 25/75 (maybe aggressive estimates), we're probably headed for 2 bids, but 1 bid is within the normal variance. I hesitate to emphasize the "MVC gets 2" because teams get bids, not conferences, and this will be a case where the individual teams will determine how many the MVC gets, regardless of the strength of the MVC.

Big 10 is headed for a monster season in all the computer rankings. They're got a shot a 8 - that league is going to be jammed full with quality win opportunities everywhere.

Agreed about the Big Ten, and yes, I think 8 bids are possible considering the 10 bids the Big East got a couple of years ago. It's there for the taking for my local Northwestern team, but again they lose a home game last night to only a slightly above average Stanford team. I believe Northwestern lost another player to injury last night which is not good. I'm also going to the NW/Iowa game in January. Hopefully that's a winnable game for the Wildcats.

[tornado]

Agreed about the Big Ten, and yes, I think 8 bids are possible considering the 10 bids the Big East got a couple of years ago. It's there for the taking for my local Northwestern team, but again they lose a home game last night to only a slightly above average Stanford team. I believe Northwestern lost another player to injury last night which is not good. I'm also going to the NW/Iowa game in January. Hopefully that's a winnable game for the Wildcats.

yeah - Northwestern has had some really bad breaks -
first, they lost JerShon Cobb to academics...
then their best player Drew Crawford is lost for the season to a Nate-Funk-injury - a torn labrum that he's having surgery on...
now last night Reggie Hearn - their top scorer, left the game with an unspecified ankle injury and did not return...not sure if he's going to miss time...

[Bravesfan]

yeah - Northwestern has had some really bad breaks -
first, they lost JerShon Cobb to academics...
then their best player Drew Crawford is lost for the season to a Nate-Funk-injury - a torn labrum that he's having surgery on...
now last night Reggie Hearn - their top scorer, left the game with an unspecified ankle injury and did not return...not sure if he's going to miss time...

Yeah, and it's also ironic that Bill Carmody is in his ninth season with the Wildcats, and his hot seat like Les's during the same season is getting hotter. Again, the injuries have hurt Carmody. A couple of differences though between NW and Bradley. Will the NW fans never having witnessed and NCAA Tournament bid for their team be okay with Carmody for the foreseeable future since he has brought the program to respectibility? Or will they turn on him for failing to develop the talent he has brought in, which is arguably better than what most Valley teams are able to recruit? Only time will tell, but it seems like the NW administration is happy with him, at least for now.

I don't want to start anymore Les debates, but it just seems to be an interesting parallel between the two coaches.

Oh, and I forgot one more coach in his ninth season dealing with injury problems. Lovie Smith! Although one can argue that he had about three or four relatively injury free seasons to get his team to the Super Bowl.

[Chico]

Can't blame injuries.

[Bravesfan]

Can't blame injuries.

I agree. I think Carmody has more to work with than Valley teams when they have injuries. Plus I don't think his Princeton style offense gels too well with the rest of the Big Ten outside of Wisconsin. So this may be his year to "put up or shut up". But considering where this program came from before he came here, he certainly has improved it's standing. But probably not good enough for some NW fans who may expect more.

[tornado]

yeah - Northwestern has had some really bad breaks -

then their best player Drew Crawford is lost for the season to a Nate-Funk-injury - a torn labrum that he's having surgery on....

Northwestern has 31 scheduled games and senior Drew Crawford played in the first TEN of those games, thus he has played in 32% of his team's scheduled games
- slightly MORE THEN the allowable 30% to get a medical hardship waiver (medical redshirt).
This is an interesting case - since all the articles say that Crawford's shoulder has been bothering him since last summer and that he KNEW he'd eventually have to undergo surgery for the persistent torn labrum.
So - after their 10th game they decided to "shut him down" and plan surgery - but...did they miscalculate??

Isn't the ten games perhaps over the limit....some think so...

http://www.sippinonpurple.com/northwestern-wildcats-basketball/2012/12/14/3767998/drew-crawford-injury-medical-hardship-northwestern-basketball

Thus his college career could be over - so why did they let him play 10 games - why didn't they shut him down after 9 just to stay under the limit....now they have to make a special appeal to the NCAA!

They will appeal for a special waiver from NCAA. It is not totally unprecedented - just a month ago an Oklahoma State football player, who played in 4 games and 33% of scheduled games (they had 12 scheduled games) - received a special medical waiver...

http://www.newson6.com/story/20077371/osu-receiver-tracy-moore-granted-extra-year

And given Crawford's good standing academically - I think NCAA will comply, but this is interesting....

However - here is the NCAA definition.......

"The injury or illness occurs when the student-athlete has not participated in more than three contests..or 30 percent
(whichever number is greater) of the institution’s scheduled or completed contests or dates of competition in his or her sport.
Only scheduled or completed competition ..against outside participants during the playing season."

http://bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread.php?p=229793#post229793

[Bravesfan]

Northwestern has 31 scheduled games and senior Drew Crawford played in the first TEN of those games, thus he has played in 32% of his team's scheduled games
- slightly MORE THEN the allowable 30% to get a medical hardship waiver (medical redshirt).
This is an interesting case - since all the articles say that Crawford's shoulder has been bothering him since last summer and that he KNEW he'd eventually have to undergo surgery for the persistent torn labrum.
So - after their 10th game they decided to "shut him down" and plan surgery - but...did they miscalculate??

Isn't the ten games perhaps over the limit....some think so...

http://www.sippinonpurple.com/northwestern-wildcats-basketball/2012/12/14/3767998/drew-crawford-injury-medical-hardship-northwestern-basketball

Thus his college career could be over - so why did they let him play 10 games - why didn't they shut him down after 9 just to stay under the limit....now they have to make a special appeal to the NCAA!

They will appeal for a special waiver from NCAA. It is not totally unprecedented - just a month ago an Oklahoma State football player, who played in 4 games and 33% of scheduled games (they had 12 scheduled games) - received a special medical waiver...

http://www.newson6.com/story/20077371/osu-receiver-tracy-moore-granted-extra-year

And given Crawford's good standing academically - I think NCAA will comply, but this is interesting....

However - here is the NCAA definition.......

"The injury or illness occurs when the student-athlete has not participated in more than three contests..or 30 percent
(whichever number is greater) of the institution??™s scheduled or completed contests or dates of competition in his or her sport.
Only scheduled or completed competition ..against outside participants during the playing season."
http://bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread...793#post229793

Yeah, that would hurt if the NCAA won't let him back, but someone over there may have goofed. I hope they will let him back though.