An Interesting observation on RPI

[tornado]

Indiana had been the #1 ranked team all year - and now they've lost only once - a close OT loss to Butler - who have an RPI of 5...
so you'd think if you are the #1 ranked team, and you're 10-1 with the only loss being to a team with one of the top RPI's in Division I - then Indiana must also have a TOP RPI and be the best in the Big Ten, right??

Well...nope ....Indiana's RPI is 20 and it actually fell a notch after their last game even though they won it by 40 points!!
But it is because they have scheduled pretty weak with softies like Mt. St. mary's, Central Connecticut State, Coppin State, Sam Houston, Bryant, North Dakota State, etc...
..and now they have two more horrible teams coming in to get pounded - Florida Atlantic & Jacksonville...
Heck - if they weren't a media favorite - and don't win the Big Ten - then are they going to pass the "eye test"??



Here's yet another anomaly - Stephen F. Austin has an RPI of 12!!!
Are they good?? Or have they "cracked the code" of the RPI??

They have only FIVE Division I wins - over Florida International, Tulsa, San Diego, Grambling, and the only quality one - a narrow 56-55 upset over Oklahoma
They have also played four obscure non-DI teams - Howard Payne, Jarvis Christian, LSU-Shreveport, and Lubbock Christian (not too obscure to BU fans)
..since the entire rest of their schedule is filled with easily winnable games such as TAMU-Corpus Christi, Lamar (twice), McNeese (twice), Northwestern State, Nicholls, SE La, Central Arkansas..etc...
then it is ENTIRELY possibly - even plausible that Stephen F. Austin could end up with close to 30 wins by season's end and an RPI well inside the TOP TEN!!!
But - if they do not get the automatic bid from their horribly weak Southland Conference then would they get bypassed by the Selection Committee with an RPI inside the TOP 10 and 30 wins???

[BUBalum05]

What about MVSU? They've played a relative murderers row of big school but are 0-7 with an RPI of 129 right now. http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_393_Men.html
RPI is a tool for evaluating teams but it obviously isn't a gold standard metric. That MVSU team isn't worthy of 129 at all, but their SOS is a fly in the ointment of the RPI formula too.

[Bravesfan]

Indiana had been the #1 ranked team all year - and now they've lost only once - a close OT loss to Butler - who have an RPI of 5...
so you'd think if you are the #1 ranked team, and you're 10-1 with the only loss being to a team with one of the top RPI's in Division I - then Indiana must also have a TOP RPI and be the best in the Big Ten, right??

Well...nope ....Indiana's RPI is 20 and it actually fell a notch after their last game even though they won it by 40 points!!
But it is because they have scheduled pretty weak with softies like Mt. St. mary's, Central Connecticut State, Coppin State, Sam Houston, Bryant, North Dakota State, etc...
..and now they have two more horrible teams coming in to get pounded - Florida Atlantic & Jacksonville...
Heck - if they weren't a media favorite - and don't win the Big Ten - then are they going to pass the "eye test"??



Here's yet another anomaly - Stephen F. Austin has an RPI of 12!!!
Are they good?? Or have they "cracked the code" of the RPI??

They have only FIVE Division I wins - over Florida International, Tulsa, San Diego, Grambling, and the only quality one - a narrow 56-55 upset over Oklahoma
They have also played four obscure non-DI teams - Howard Payne, Jarvis Christian, LSU-Shreveport, and Lubbock Christian (not too obscure to BU fans)
..since the entire rest of their schedule is filled with easily winnable games such as TAMU-Corpus Christi, Lamar (twice), McNeese (twice), Northwestern State, Nicholls, SE La, Central Arkansas..etc...
then it is ENTIRELY possibly - even plausible that Stephen F. Austin could end up with close to 30 wins by season's end and an RPI well inside the TOP TEN!!!
But - if they do not get the automatic bid from their horribly weak Southland Conference then would they get bypassed by the Selection Committee with an RPI inside the TOP 10 and 30 wins???

How do we know that Creighton isn't a better team than Indiana? Creighton has had a more difficult schedule in my opinion, and have the same record as Indiana. But the only reason Indiana is ranked higher is because they were the preseason #1 team, giving them the built-in advantage of having the number one ranking handed to them with it being theirs to lose. That's why I'm so against these stupid preseason polls that automatically give the advantages to the "big boy" teams, even though Creighton did get a pretty high ranking themselves.

But the interesting thing is that when two top ranked Big Ten teams play each other, how do we know they aren't any better than some of the highly ranked mid-major teams. We don't, and even if Indiana does win the Big Ten, does that mean they actually had to beat 6 of the top ten teams in the country to do it? I don't think we know that answer unless they play other teams from other conferences.

[TheAsianSensation]

Stevie Austin is this year's outlier. None of their D1 opponents are in the tank, and they have road wins, which we all know is valuable currency. 4 road wins actually. All the non D1s help too. They're going to crash so freaking hard in conference play, although the Southland is holding firm in the mid-teens. If they somehow find a way to something like 28-4, I can see top 40, but not much more.

Indiana's SoS actually isn't terrible - 40. They're actually getting dinged on the obscure opponent's SoS, and they haven't played a true road game - that'll hurt you on the top end of the RPI. The influence of road/home splits is accentuated in the first part of the year.

This is usually the time of year when RPI transitions from irrelevant to relevant, although you can't trust the final form until late January or so. You need all the MVSUs to get into conference play and balance out their SoS and records.

[Bravesfan]

Stevie Austin is this year's outlier. None of their D1 opponents are in the tank, and they have road wins, which we all know is valuable currency. 4 road wins actually. All the non D1s help too. They're going to crash so freaking hard in conference play, although the Southland is holding firm in the mid-teens. If they somehow find a way to something like 28-4, I can see top 40, but not much more.

Indiana's SoS actually isn't terrible - 40. They're actually getting dinged on the obscure opponent's SoS, and they haven't played a true road game - that'll hurt you on the top end of the RPI. The influence of road/home splits is accentuated in the first part of the year.

This is usually the time of year when RPI transitions from irrelevant to relevant, although you can't trust the final form until late January or so. You need all the MVSUs to get into conference play and balance out their SoS and records.

That's true. But it almost doesn't matter these days as the powers that be in college basketball have devalued the significance of the RPI after the Valley and other teams "cracked the RPI code" back in 2006.

[Indy_BB]

Indiana #16
Stephen F. Aust #29
Butler #2
Mississippi Val #108

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI?id=2012-12-21

[TheAsianSensation]

That's true. But it almost doesn't matter these days as the powers that be in college basketball have devalued the significance of the RPI after the Valley and other teams "cracked the RPI code" back in 2006.

The problem is that I think everyone used to believe the RPI should be a precision tool when the math behind the RPI suggests it never should've been used as more than a blunt instrument.

When the RPI was incorrectly used as a precision tool early on, it supported the current conception in the game, so everyone decided it was a precision tool. When the RPI finally said something different, everyone got confused.

Now I think everyone is in a better position to realize the RPI is a blunt instrument, and that trying to use it as a precise tool to clearly define a single team's value is erroneous.

[Tulsa Brave]

Pomeroy and Sagarin both give a much much much much more accurate depiction of the current strength of teams than the RPI, especially during the early and middle part of the season. By the end of the season, the RPI generally catches up, but the edge even then still goes to Pomeroy and Sagarin.