Final Score: Texas Pan-American 61 Bradley 78

[TheAsianSensation]

Missouri State losing at home to Jacksonville=bad loss

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketb...d=201211190551

Now THAT is legitimately bad.

[TheAsianSensation]

Playing challenging games actually hurts you early on in the RPI. The season is too young to know when the challenging losses you have are actually good losses yet. So the Valley will naturally rise back up. Same phenomenon with the Mountain West - their conference SoS is in the tank today, but that will shoot up in a hurry.

I wrote this a couple days ago when the Mountain West was in the low teens in the CRPI with a terribad SoS.

They're now #1 overall in CRPI with the #7 SoS.

Volatility.

[tornado]

it's because they beat the teams from conferences above them are we or many MVC teams doing that ??

[TheAsianSensation]

it's because they beat the teams from conferences above them are we or many MVC teams doing that ??

In the past 4 days, New Mexico beat UConn. Boise St lost to Michigan St. Everyone else didn't play a power conference school.

2 games, 1-1 result, and that's the jump that results. That just proves there's volatility and that a conference's current standing in CRPI is meaningless right now.

[tornado]

as I said -- the only teams the MVC are beating up on are the Longwoods, Santa Claras, Delaware States & UTPA's...hard to move up in RPI even if you win ten of those games then drop one to Detroit, USF, or Jacksonville...
I notice most sites now have the Valley around 20th among conferences in RPI - PLUS ranked 31st (essentially dead last) in CONFERENCE SOS...

I kinda hear you saying we could turn that around 180 overnite as you claim the MWC supposedly did...but get back to me when that happens...

...and unless we beat Michigan or we see Creighton run off some pretty good games vs. Wisconsin, St. Joe's and Cal...I worry the Valley will NOT be a top dozen RPI conference for the first time in way more than a decade...
it will also be interesting to see where our non-conference SOS finalizes -- again it looks as if we're headed to the worst one in a long, long time..
From our own personal standpoint - I have always enjoyed at least bragging that BU's SOS was one of the strongest every year in the Valley - again it's shaping up a bit different thus far as we're well below #250

[JMM28]

The Valley will be a top 10 conference as always.

[Bravesfan]

Well yes, each game counts equally in the end. But what I'm saying is that right now, the RPI can't tell how good a team is until much later in the season. It doesn't know if these wins or losses will end up being quality wins or bad losses yet.

Which is why I can live with someone saying the Valley has a bad start (although I disagree with it), but I can't live with someone using the numbers to support it.

I have to respectively disagree with you TAS. I can't accept someone saying the Valley is off to a bad start when there's not enough data as of yet to support that claim. At least by the time the conference season starts, enough games of varying quality have been played to give a good indication as to where a particular conference will be ranked. But right now, no one has any right to say we are off to a bad start until our teams start playing better quality teams. As someone mentioned above, at least Kenpom projects where a conference will rank until enough data (i.e.: enough games have been played) has been collected.

[Bravesfan]

Now THAT is legitimately bad.

Yes, I mentioned this on another thread last night. But so far this is the only real bad loss the Valley has had this year. That said, there has only been one really good win as well, Wichita St. over VCU. But all our teams will now have their chances to earn some quality wins for the Valley, and THAT will tell us the Valley's true ranking. Hopefully the Valley contenders at least will nab a few good wins very soon.

[Future Walk-On]

Yes, I mentioned this on another thread last night. But so far this is the only real bad loss the Valley has had this year. That said, there has only been one really good win as well, Wichita St. over VCU. But all our teams will now have their chances to earn some quality wins for the Valley, and THAT will tell us the Valley's true ranking. Hopefully the Valley contenders at least will nab a few good wins very soon.

Like BU over Michigan?

OH CRAP i wasn't supposed to tell anyone...it hasn't happened yet

[Bravesfan]

Like BU over Michigan?

OH CRAP i wasn't supposed to tell anyone...it hasn't happened yet

Well that would be nice, but I'm more concerned about how Creighton, UNI, ISU red and WSU do against the better teams since they are the four teams that have the best chance of making the NCAA Tournament. Of course any team in the conference winning against a BCS caliber team will help the conference RPI, but quality wins will have the biggest effect for the teams that will be in contention for the NCAA Tournament at the end.

[Bravesfan]

all I can say is that in the past few years of declining at-large bids in the MVC -- ISU has four NIT bids in seasons where they might have gotten an NCAA bid had they only scheduled a LITTLE bit tougher...........their early schedule was peppered with Norfolk State, Lipscomb, Alabama A&M, Houston Baptist, and God-knows who all else that many of their fans now wish dearly they had NOT SCHEDULED.

Well, that's their problem mostly. Yes, their schedule hurt all the Valley teams, but ISU got hosed the most for obvious reasons.

I have to respectively disagree with your earlier point about the Valley not having a lot of opportunities for quality wins. There are plenty that will be coming up real quickly:

Creighton: Wisconsin, Arkansas or Arizona St at the Las Vegas Invitational this weekend, St. Joseph's, Akron, at Nebraska, at California.

Northern Iowa: Louisville and possibly Duke, Stanford, Memphis, Missouri and/or UNLV at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament this weekend, at George Mason, atUNLV (again), Iowa and St. Mary's.

Illinois St.: At Drexel (already played) Louisville, at Dayton and UAB, TCU and/or Northwestern at the South Padre Island Invitational this weekend.

Wichita St: At VCU (already played), at Tennessee, Iowa (tonight), S. Mississippi

Bradley: At S. Florida (already played), Michigan, and Virginia Tech and possibly Colorado St. at the Las Vegas Classic.

Drake: Detroit (already played), At California and possibly Georgia Tech the Direct TV Classic this weekend, Iowa St., at Nevada, at St. Mary's.

Evansville: At Colorado St., at Notre Dame (already played), at Butler, Murray St.

Indiana St.: At UCLA (already played), New Mexico, Mississippi and/or San Diego St., Miami, Arizona at the Diamond Head Classic.

Missouri St.: San Diego St. (already played), at Oklahoma St., Valparaiso, and South Carolina at the Hoops for Hope Challange.

S. Illinois: At St. Louis, Utah St. at the World Vision Classic.


So while I will agree that Creighton, Wichta St. and SIU could have scheduled up slightly more (especially Creighton, but not so much SIU as they are rebuilding this year), every team including them have their chances for quality wins, with the vast majority of these games yet to be played. A lot will be played this weekend, so we'll at least have a somewhat better idea as to where the Valley is headed after this weekend.

[tornado]

.. I can't accept someone saying the Valley is off to a bad start ..

I don't think we're off to a really bad start - just not as good as the record is being spun - & just haven't had enough quality opponents early on that we've beaten..it's more of a conference-wide problem similar to what ISU has done for the past decade...
poor scheduling..and when you finally do play a decent opponent with a chance to move up - then lose...
There's still plenty of time to alter this course - but despite all the talk of how incredibly early it is - you gotta know we're almost halfway thru the non-conference portion of everyone's schedule.

[TheAsianSensation]

I have to respectively disagree with you TAS. I can't accept someone saying the Valley is off to a bad start when there's not enough data as of yet to support that claim. At least by the time the conference season starts, enough games of varying quality have been played to give a good indication as to where a particular conference will be ranked. But right now, no one has any right to say we are off to a bad start until our teams start playing better quality teams. As someone mentioned above, at least Kenpom projects where a conference will rank until enough data (i.e.: enough games have been played) has been collected.

Well if I say that there's not enough data to determine who's good, I can't be hypocritical about saying who's bad either. I can disagree to hell with it, but I won't push back. Yet.

Anyways I was on my way to write another post but your team-by-team schedule analysis saved me a lot of work

Sure Valley could finish outside the Top 12, but that would involve a very sub-par rest of non-con. If the MVC results are near the expected mean, they'll be 9 or 10 in the CRPI (depending how frisky the bottom half of the WCC will be)

[TheAsianSensation]

From our own personal standpoint - I have always enjoyed at least bragging that BU's SOS was one of the strongest every year in the Valley - again it's shaping up a bit different thus far as we're well below #250

This is my one big concern. Bradley's probably doing as much as any single team is in hurting the Valley's SoS this year. After the sterling '06-'07 non-con schedule that was one of the wackiest (good wacky, not bad wacky) I'd seen, we slowly drifted downwards, and Ford decided to let it bottom out last year (maybe good for the team but bad for the conference).

If we're scheduling like this in year 5, you can expect me to lead some riots about it. As is, based on his tenure at KSU, I expect top 100 non-con SoSs.

[Bravesfan]

I don't think we're off to a really bad start - just not as good as the record is being spun - & just haven't had enough quality opponents early on that we've beaten..it's more of a conference-wide problem similar to what ISU has done for the past decade...
poor scheduling..and when you finally do play a decent opponent with a chance to move up - then lose...
There's still plenty of time to alter this course - but despite all the talk of how incredibly early it is - you gotta know we're almost halfway thru the non-conference portion of everyone's schedule.

I agree. I wouldn't say the Valley is off to a great start either just because many of these games against BCS opponents haven't been played yet. But I think you were saying that we may get locked out of the top 12 or so, but I think there are too many games against the better teams that haven't been played yet. I'd say by Sunday we'll have at least established a strong trend of where the Valley is headed as a lot of these marquee games take place this weekend.

And congrats again to Wichita St. for another solid win, this time against previously undefeated Iowa. I don't know if Iowa will be that great this year, but for now it's the Shockers second strong win of the year. Not bad for a team that's supposed to be reloading this year!