Final Score: Texas Pan-American 61 Bradley 78

[tornado]

here's why I think getting a big jump on RPI is important early - because ..

-first - we are going to lose some of these games...look where we currently are - almost every MVC team has an RPI that currently looks pretty crappy
-second - once the conference games start there's precious little way to boost your non-conference RPI....and we sure haven't fared that well come BracketBuster weekend
-people do look at it...and those who actually hand out the bids are very aware of who you play even early and evenif NAIA

[TheAsianSensation]

We did get a big jump on RPI. 5 days into the season, the MVC was #1 overall. Now we're #14.

People look at the final data. They don't look at how the data evolves, unless it's in February-to-March.

The heart of your analysis is in the right place but you're over-emphasizing the meanings of the early numbers. We can agree to disagree on the state of the Valley this season but I can't agree with the use of RPI to support that argument this early.

[Da Coach]

But don't you agree that at the end of the season, these early season games have the same impact as any game later in the season, as far as their effect on the final RPI? Yes, the early numbers are relatively meaningless, but they all count in the end. So playing better teams, and of course winning those games, would be better than playing poor teams.

[SFP]

I'm in Gary's camp on this issue! Who cares this year? It will be a pretty good season if we play in a AEIU Tornament season's end. I want to see improvements and players buying into GF's system. I want to see some decent recruits coming in that can make a difference quickly. My eyes are on year 3 and 4. It's implied that every Braves fan would love to see BU go undefeated.

[tornado]

all I can say is that in the past few years of declining at-large bids in the MVC -- ISU has four NIT bids in seasons where they might have gotten an NCAA bid had they only scheduled a LITTLE bit tougher...........their early schedule was peppered with Norfolk State, Lipscomb, Alabama A&M, Houston Baptist, and God-knows who all else that many of their fans now wish dearly they had NOT SCHEDULED.

[Da Coach]

all I can say is that in the past few years of declining at-large bids in the MVC -- ISU has four NIT bids in seasons where they might have gotten an NCAA bid had they only scheduled a LITTLE bit tougher...........their early schedule was peppered with Norfolk State, Lipscomb, Alabama A&M, Houston Baptist, and God-knows who all else that many of their fans now wish dearly they had NOT SCHEDULED.

I think we all know which school that affected several times.

[Gary the Gargoyle]

But don't you agree that at the end of the season, these early season games have the same impact as any game later in the season, as far as their effect on the final RPI? Yes, the early numbers are relatively meaningless, but they all count in the end. So playing better teams, and of course winning those games, would be better than playing poor teams.

I was not a math major, but aren't the numbers disproportionate through just 3 games? Sure, they all count, but right now, each game is 33% or 50% of the total (depending on whether you've played 3 games or 2). By the end of the year, each game individually will be roughly 3% of the total.

[JMM28]

The RPI doesn't have enough connections/common opponents of opponents yet to be relevant. Sites like kenpom will load historical data and expected numbers early to make their numbers more predictive. RPI is totally reactive. If you look at kenpom, the MVC fares much better because SIUC and BU are significantly higher. ISU is also quite a bit higher.


The RPI numbers are skewed low also because SIU is in the 300s because there is no data for them in there.

[TheAsianSensation]

But don't you agree that at the end of the season, these early season games have the same impact as any game later in the season, as far as their effect on the final RPI? Yes, the early numbers are relatively meaningless, but they all count in the end. So playing better teams, and of course winning those games, would be better than playing poor teams.

Well yes, each game counts equally in the end. But what I'm saying is that right now, the RPI can't tell how good a team is until much later in the season. It doesn't know if these wins or losses will end up being quality wins or bad losses yet.

Which is why I can live with someone saying the Valley has a bad start (although I disagree with it), but I can't live with someone using the numbers to support it.

[TheAsianSensation]

all I can say is that in the past few years of declining at-large bids in the MVC -- ISU has four NIT bids in seasons where they might have gotten an NCAA bid had they only scheduled a LITTLE bit tougher...........their early schedule was peppered with Norfolk State, Lipscomb, Alabama A&M, Houston Baptist, and God-knows who all else that many of their fans now wish dearly they had NOT SCHEDULED.

If Jankovich would've scheduled like a normal person, ISU would've had 2 at-large bids in the last 3 years and we wouldn't have had the "Valley is down" arguments. Valley was indeed down in perception but in this specific case we can identify an exact singular cause (which usually doesn't happen in these kinds of things).

[Gary the Gargoyle]

Well yes, each game counts equally in the end. But what I'm saying is that right now, the RPI can't tell how good a team is until much later in the season. It doesn't know if these wins or losses will end up being quality wins or bad losses yet.

Which is why I can live with someone saying the Valley has a bad start (although I disagree with it), but I can't live with someone using the numbers to support it.

So it's a "sample size" thing, right?

[TheAsianSensation]

So it's a "sample size" thing, right?

Pretty much.

[SFP]

Gary - as you can see TAS is our RPI expert on this board. I know at least I read his findings and thought process on these matter more closely then anyone else. He puts a ton of thought, his process is very concise and for the most part not emotional. Just like we count on Da Coach to keep this board above the fray with his steady hand.

Thanks TAS!

[Gary the Gargoyle]

Gary - as you can see TAS is our RPI expert on this board. I know at least I read his findings and thought process on these matter more closely then anyone else. He puts a ton of thought, his process is very concise and for the most part not emotional. Just like we count on Da Coach to keep this board above the fray with his steady hand.

Thanks TAS!

I've never paid much attention to the RPI stuff. That being said, I'm not a big saber metrics guy in baseball either. I still like the back of the bubblegum card stats.

[tornado]

.. or bad losses ...

Missouri State losing at home to Jacksonville=bad loss

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/boxscore?gid=201211190551