More fallout from Illinois State's weak non-conference scheduling

[Da Coach]

It is looking like a possibility that there could be a 4-way tie for 4th place between UNI, Evansville, Drake, and Illinois State if the most likely scenario for the final week of the MVC plays out as expected.-

https://twitter.com/#!/Lscranton/status/172167497037000704

The tiebreakers for the MVC are listed here-

http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/tiebreaker/

Note that the tiebreaker if head to head or "round robin" competetion is even is the non-conference strength of schedule. And Illinois State's non-conference Strength of Schedule is easily the worst in the MVC. If that holds true, that would bump the Redbirds all the way down to 7th seed and into the Thursday night playoff round against the #10 seed Bradley.

So again Tim Jankovich's preference for the incredibly easy schedule could really hurt them again. It cost them a chance at an NCAA at-large bid in 2008, and 2009, and hurt their NIT seeding in '08, '09, and '10, likely costing them home games. In 2012 it could do some damage again now that SOS has been added to the tiebreaker system, by forcing the Redbirds, who just a couple weeks ago were a 3rd place team, to possibly end up the 7th seed and play in the Thursday night play-in round. If they win that game, they'll get the #2 seed which will be Creighton (Creighton and Wichita State are 1-1 head-to-head, but Creighton's non-conference SOS is more than 100 slots weaker than Wichita State's).

[Nacho]

And Illinois State's non-conference Strength of Schedule is easily the worst in the MVC.

While I am as pissed as anyone that this is a possbility, your statement is wrong.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/18

1. Wichita St- 17
2. Northern Iowa- 25
3. Missouri St- 66
4. Bradley- 132
5. Creighton- 146
6. Evansiville- 173
7. Drake- 194
8. InSU- 275
9. ISU- 286
10. SIU- 303

Hard to believe but there actually is someone with a worse non-conf SOS! Hopefully the new AD steps in like he says he is going to in the future. He has already scheduled a home and home with Northwestern but that doesn't start until until the 13-14 season. NW is rumored to play in the early season tourney next year so we could play them 3 years in a row. IDK... we will see I guess!

[Da Coach]

I guess that means that if you tie SIU, then you have the tiebreaker!


ISU's SOS has been the worst in the MVC for the last 4 seasons, but it looks like they will avoid a 5th straight season of ignominy. I stand corrected about this year, it's only 9th worst in the MVC, yet still worse than 285 other D1 schools, and worse than any of the other teams contending for 3rd through 7th place.

[bufan73]

I guess that means that if you tie SIU, then you have the tiebreaker!


ISU's SOS has been the worst in the MVC for the last 4 seasons, but it looks like they will avoid a 5th straight season of ignominy. I stand corrected about this year, it's only 9th worst in the MVC, yet still worse than 285 other D1 schools, and worse than any of the other teams contending for 3rd through 7th place.

I would rather have the worst SOS...than the worst team in the conference.

[Da Coach]

Considering ISU is the MVC team that has gone the longest time since their last NCAA appearance, I would think they would want to stop scheduling so many non-conference patsies every year so that it would at least give them a prayer of getting an at large bid.

If it makes ISU fans, masquerading as Bradley fans, happy to compare themselves with the bottom teams in the league, then go for it. :-)

[45otseoj]

Big thanks to Hacksaw on MVCFans. This is his data simply trimmed (cutting away guarantees) and tweaked (putting the games in chronological order).

[CubbieBear]

I would rather have the worst SOS...than the worst team in the conference.

+1

[NSBF]

+1

careful Cubbie, you will be accused of masquerading as an ILSU fan.

[CubbieBear]

careful Cubbie, you will be accused of masquerading as an ILSU fan.

Well played NSBF. IF I was accused of THAT I could only ask that you "consider the source of the accuser"

Now I am guilty as charged of being a beaten down-yet realistic BU (and Cubs) fan--but never masquerading as Deadbird

[Da Coach]

Big thanks to Hacksaw on MVCFans. This is his data simply trimmed (cutting away guarantees) and tweaked (putting the games in chronological order).

Thanks to whoever did the work to map out all those permutations.
Bradley could play any one of 6 different teams depending on the outcome of Saturday's games. The only game Saturday that would appear to be a good bet is the Drake game at Wichita, but with the way things have gone in the Valley this year, even that pick isn't 100% safe. And even if that's the case, it doesn't make trying to guess Bradley's opponent any easier. It could still be any one of the same 6 teams.
If Wichita State, Illinois State, and Creighton win (probably the 3 games likely to have the widest point spread) that would at least eliminate MSU and ISU from the 7th seed.