NCAA tournament at-large teams

[Da Coach]

Jerry Palm, who writes for CBSSports.com, still has 9 Big Ten teams in the NCAA tournament. This speaks more for the shortage of good teams elsewhere than it does for the Big Ten also-rans, IMO. He still projects Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern in the NCAA as at-large teams despite being tied for 7th in the Big Ten with 5-8 conference records and fading fast. Palm is clearly biased toward the BCS boys (note he calls himself a BCS/Bracketology expert at the top, and his blog URL is RPIBCSguy). He believes the Colonial league, historically one of the strongest non-BCS leagues is a one-bid league, and that Murray State needs a win over St. Mary's, or is in danger of missing an at-large bid.

http://rpibcsguy.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26191645/34873802

Here is his projected bracket- he has Wichita State as a #5 seed and Creighton as a #6 seed- I think those high seeds are slightly high. He has 9 Big Ten teams, and 8 Big East teams-

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

For comparison, Joe Lunardi of ESPN, who has a great track record for predicting the teams, has his picks. He has a few differences. He has only 7 Big Ten teams in the tournament (Illinois among his last 4 in, and NW and MN as among the last 4 out), but 9 Big East teams. He projects both Wichita State and Creighton as #6 seeds.-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Bravesfan]

Jerry Palm, who writes for CBSSports.com, still has 9 Big Ten teams in the NCAA tournament. This speaks more for the shortage of good teams elsewhere than it does for the Big Ten also-rans, IMO. He still projects Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern in the NCAA as at-large teams despite being tied for 7th in the Big Ten with 5-8 conference records and fading fast. Palm is clearly biased toward the BCS boys (note he calls himself a BCS/Bracketology expert at the top, and his blog URL is RPIBCSguy). He believes the Colonial league, historically one of the strongest non-BCS leagues is a one-bid league, and that Murray State needs a win over St. Mary's, or is in danger of missing an at-large bid.

http://rpibcsguy.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26191645/34873802

Here is his projected bracket- he has Wichita State as a #5 seed and Creighton as a #6 seed- I think those high seeds are slightly high. He has 9 Big Ten teams, and 8 Big East teams-

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

For comparison, Joe Lunardi of ESPN, who has a great track record for predicting the teams, has his picks. He has a few differences. He has only 7 Big Ten teams in the tournament (Illinois among his last 4 in, and NW and MN as among the last 4 out), but 9 Big East teams. He projects both Wichita State and Creighton as #6 seeds.-
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I will agree with Palm regarding the CAA getting only one team in. If you look closely at the non-conference resumes of the top 4 teams, there's very little if anything regarding quality non-conference wins this year, as has not been the case in recent years. Perhaps a second team can get in if the selection committee regards some in-conference wins as quality wins (ie: George Mason beating VCU on a last second three pointer the other night). But unfortunately, fair or not, one team looks like the max this year, that is unless they pull a "VCU" and select a second team no one believes should be in like they did last year.

I do agree that this is absolutely ridiculous that he feels 9 teams will be in from the Big Ten. Please!! Two teams in with a 5-8 conference record? It's not happening, though not to say it hasn't happened before. I remember a 6-10 Virginia team making the tournament about 10 years ago, so nothing would shock me!

I also believe that anyone including Palm thinking that Murray St. misses the tournament if they lost to St. Mary's is full of it! How can the selection committee justify passing over a 31-2 or even a 30-3 team? It can't, and it's not like the Racers don't have some quality non-conference wins! If their win over Memphis doesn't count, I don't what else to say.

[tornado]

I think Illinois will be out - they are losing 49-28 at Nebraska

[Bravesfan]

I think Illinois will be out - they are losing 49-28 at Nebraska

I could have told Palm that after Wednesday's game. Even Mr. "Big Ten" guy should have known better!

[Tulsa Brave]

I would hope no one would have more than 1 CAA team in at this point. That league is MUCH weaker then they've been at any time in at least the past 6-8 years, and there is no way any CAA team belongs in the top 37 at-large teams for the tourney. Prior to today, Drexel's best non-con win was over Princeton, and George Mason's was over Bucknell. VCU at least had wins over Akron and South Florida, although neither of those will be getting an at-large if they need one. Bottom line, CAA teams have lost every single game they have played against teams that will be at-large teams to the NCAA tourney.

[Tulsa Brave]

Murray State won today, so they appear safe. The reason they would have been in trouble had they lost today would have been not the loss today, but the home loss to Tennessee State, and the bad loss they would have to have in the OVC tourney to need an at-large. With the win today, they can now afford another bad loss, but if I were them I wouldn't risk it by having a bad loss this coming week, and then another one in the OVC tourney.

[Bravesfan]

Murray State won today, so they appear safe. The reason they would have been in trouble had they lost today would have been not the loss today, but the home loss to Tennessee State, and the bad loss they would have to have in the OVC tourney to need an at-large. With the win today, they can now afford another bad loss, but if I were them I wouldn't risk it by having a bad loss this coming week, and then another one in the OVC tourney.

I disagree. One bad home loss to Tennessee State should not have disqualifed this team from the NCAA Tournament. Sooner or later, winning percentage should trump quality wins. Any team in [i]any[i] conference that wins over 90 percent of their games should get in the tournament with no questions asked since that is a most difficult accomplishment throughout a long season. Even without solid non-conference wins, any team that wins 90 percent or more of their games are more than capable of upsetting a few teams in the tournament.

Besides, Murray State has enough quality wins with wins over Memphis, So. Miss and Dayton. Okay maybe 2 of 3 are NIT type teams, but still good wins nonetheless. And they can add and albeit shorthanded St. Mary's to their list. So unless they lose their last 2 regular season games, I don't see any reason for them to be worried come Selection Sunday if the fail to win the OVC tourney.

[TheAsianSensation]

The CAA deserves anything they get as punishment for their absolute tanking of the non-con season.

Murray St is fine.

I'm fine with projecting the Big 10 with 9 teams right now, but it's almost impossible for all 9 to avoid damaging their profile enough to get in. Teams have to lose to other teams. That number's probably coming down to 7.

Murray St would probably have to lose out to miss now.

Palm himself is in the Lunardi mode, trying to project what will happen, what not should happen.

[Bravesfan]

The CAA deserves anything they get as punishment for their absolute tanking of the non-con season.

Murray St is fine.

I'm fine with projecting the Big 10 with 9 teams right now, but it's almost impossible for all 9 to avoid damaging their profile enough to get in. Teams have to lose to other teams. That number's probably coming down to 7.

Murray St would probably have to lose out to miss now.

Palm himself is in the Lunardi mode, trying to project what will happen, what not should happen.

Yeah, but even projecting out into the future, I would have had Illinois out even before today's embarassment. You still think Illinois could get in with a 7-11 conference record?

[TheAsianSensation]

Yeah, but even projecting out into the future, I would have had Illinois out even before today's embarassment. You still think Illinois could get in with a 7-11 conference record?

No, they're done now. They would've had a puncher's chance if they could've gotten to 8-10, would've been just enough wins there to make an argument.

[Bravesfan]

No, they're done now. They would've had a puncher's chance if they could've gotten to 8-10, would've been just enough wins there to make an argument.

Well who's your ninth team getting in for the time being, Iowa?

[TheAsianSensation]

Well who's your ninth team getting in for the time being, Iowa?

None. Down to 8, and really, should be 7 by Selection Sunday, maybe 6.

[Bravesfan]

None. Down to 8, and really, should be 7 by Selection Sunday, maybe 6.

That sounds more realistic.

[FlyingSpaghettiMonster]

None. Down to 8, and really, should be 7 by Selection Sunday, maybe 6.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi has 7 Big 10 teams in now.

[SFP]

What seed should Wichita State have if they win out or make it to the MVC final game? I'd have to believe they should be considered right now one of the top 16 teams in the country. I like their depth and their defense has to be one of the best in the country. They demolished a very good Creighton team on the road and should have beaten them at home. I've been a WSU fan this year from day one because of all the talent they have and depth they can play.