ESPN's Joe Lunardi posts his first "Bracketology" projection

[Da Coach]

Lunardi includes 3 MVC teams in his first projection for the NCAA tournament-
CU- #8 seed
UNI- #8 seed
WSU- #11 seed

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

That would be nice, but even with 68 teams, it isn't likely to happen, IMO. The MVC will be lucky to get 2 teams in, and even that depends as it does every year on how many conference tournament upsets there are that give an auto-bid to an otherwise undeserving team.

What I found surprising in Lunardi's projections is the #8 seed he projects for Creighton.
He also projects Indiana as a #4 seed! Not real likely to happen.

[TheAsianSensation]

Yeah, I'm surprised Creighton isn't a couple of seed lines higher.

However, I'm starting to feel pretty good about 2 teams out of the MVC teams getting in. Having 3 legitimiate candidates this year gives the conference wiggle room. That, and with the CAA punting away the season, there's room. Plus I don't expect CUSA to keep their 3 bids they have right now.

Also, I'll eat my hat if IU ends up on the 4 line. They deserve to be there right now but that has no chance to stick.

[Bravesfan]

Yeah, I'm surprised Creighton isn't a couple of seed lines higher.

However, I'm starting to feel pretty good about 2 teams out of the MVC teams getting in. Having 3 legitimiate candidates this year gives the conference wiggle room. That, and with the CAA punting away the season, there's room. Plus I don't expect CUSA to keep their 3 bids they have right now.

Also, I'll eat my hat if IU ends up on the 4 line. They deserve to be there right now but that has no chance to stick.

That's a good point. It depends on how comparable conferences to ours do. The Mountain West might get three bids, but two looks about right for now. The CAA is having the type of non-conference season we have had the past few years, leaving them very vulnerable to just one bid, but who knows. CUSA will probably get two bids, but it will help if someone challanges Memphis. The WCC probably gets Gonzaga and either St. Mary's or BYU, but not likely both unless things set up just right. The Horizon League might get two bids if Butler survives their brutal non-conference schedule and gets hot in league play. But I think they have blown way too many opportunities and looked bad in most of them. And of course the Atlantic 10 and Pac 12 will have a lot to say in regards to how many MVC teams make the tournament as well. The Pac 12 has two great teams at the top, and maybe one or two other solid teams, but with so many bad teams at the bottom, they really don't deserve more than two or three teams in the Big Dance.

Also, keep in mind the wild card scenerios where someone other than Utah St. wins the WAC, someone other than Murray St. wins the OVC, or someone other than Harvard wins the Ivy League. It will be very interesting to see what the committee decides to do if Harvard finishes a strong second or tied for first while losing a one game playoff. I don't believe the Ivy League has ever had two NCAA bids before.

[TylerDurden]

If you look strictly at results at this point, three MVC bids is possible and actually looks pretty good right now. I'm having a hard time seeing four, but three is a possibility if things continue to go well.

As others have mentioned C-USA isn't getting three this year. At this point, Memphis is a stretch to even make those preliminary lists. They haven't beaten anyone good. UCF, Southern Miss and Marshall are better candidates right now than Memphis. UCF has the win over UConn and Marshall beat a good Iona team and Cincinnati (which might not actually be a good win). In reality, C-USA could be looking at one bid.

The Mountain West is the league to watch, IMO. they have a bunch of teams off to great starts: Wyoming is 10-1 (it's a very soft 10-1, but they did win at Colorado); UNLV is 10-2; San Diego State is 9-2; Boise State is 8-2; New Mexico is 7-2; Air Force is 5-2; TCU is 7-3...hell, the "last place" team is a decent Colorado State team that's 5-4.

IMO, that's a league looking at 3-4 bids.

The good news for the Valley contenders (I'm calling UNI, CU and WSU contenders) is that they have head-to-head wins over the MWC teams they've played.

The A-10 looks like it could go 4-5 deep.

Pac 12 looks like a 2-3 bid league.

WCC looks like it could grab two bids, although Gonzaga doesn't have any spectacular wins either. The Zags do have more non-conference opportunities to get good wins...and I think they're the best team in that league. St. Mary's is good, though.

A lot will depend on how the ACC is treated. They have four teams - Duke, UNC, Florida State and Virginia -- that would be in right now. Usual bubble suspect Va Tech is probably the next best, but the rest of them aren't very good.

The SEC is better this year than it has been and will probably suck up around 6 bids, give or take.

The Big 12 is pretty good this year and they'll get a ton. Big East isn't as good, but they'll still be in the 7-8 range.

Big Ten is loaded with tournament teams. I think they'll be in the 6-7-8 range as well. I'm not sold on Minnesota, but they have a gaudy record and their opponents have good records so maybe I should be more sold on them. Northwestern is Northwestern, but they are a decent team and might work their way to the bubble. We'll see them against Creighton next week.

Indiana really only has one good win and one marginal win...but the good win is a huge win.