Three-bid league?

[LittleBrave]

I'm going with 2 teams in the Big Dance.
A lot would have to fall into place for 3. Wichita still has little room for error, and I think would need to finish 1st or 2nd.

UNI with at least 12 league wins will likely get in with a good showing in St. Louis.
CU is well on their way.

With the conference RPI being a lot better this season, it should help keep these Top 3 up there this season as long as they don't have bad losses (to the bottom 3-4 teams)

[Chibearsfan10125]

And by bottom, you're referring to SIU and BU?

I think the league is pretty strong aside from these 2, and I think BU could still make a run for 6th or 7th if we show continual improvement.

BU has a lot of talented players. The only problem is the lack of a true PG and lack of an outside shooter. If Walt can cut down on his T/O's though, and if someone (Dyricus, Taylor, Jake, Jalen, or maybe even Milos) can hit the 3 with any consistency, this could be a good team. Not a great team, mind you, but not a team that is going to hurt the Valley overall. SIU is the only team that bad this year.

[LittleBrave]

BU has a lot of talented players. The only problem is the lack of a true PG and lack of an outside shooter. If Walt can cut down on his T/O's though, and if someone (Dyricus, Taylor, Jake, Jalen, or maybe even Milos) can hit the 3 with any consistency, this could be a good team. Not a great team, mind you, but not a team that is going to hurt the Valley overall. SIU is the only team that bad this year.

Then we'd better not lose to SIU!
I think JC's 3 the other night really took the monkey off the team's back.
I think some nights we can repeat the 50% performance from behind the arc, but other nights, we may see like 15%.
One big positive on Tuesday is the confidence this team gained from their long-distance shots. We know we are capable of hitting 40% & up for the game - just a matter of keeping confidence up...and Jake getting out of his funk.

[cpacmel]

With the conference RPI being a lot better this season, it should help keep these Top 3 up there this season as long as they don't have bad losses (to the bottom 3-4 teams)

LittleBrave, can I ask what's the big deal about conference RPI? In a prefect world at-large bids would be somewhat slotted based on conference RPI. But in reality, outside of the BCS conferences this doesn't happen. History has really shown us that it doesn't happen.

The saying goes "teams get bids, not conferences".

Here are some interesting things I found from last year:

The SEC is the 6th rated conference. They got 5 bids.

The Mountain West is the 4th best conference and it only got 3 bids.

And just to take it a step further, the PAC-10, which is the 7th best conference got 4 bids.

So here you have conferences that are rated below the 4th rated Mountain West Conference, but they get more bids?

Also the 9th and 10th rated conferences both got 3 bids, while the 8th rated conference only got 2.

[TheAsianSensation]

As for conferences getting different number of bids.....allow me to introduce variance, the mathematician's mortal enemy.

[LittleBrave]

LittleBrave, can I ask what's the big deal about conference RPI? In a prefect world at-large bids would be somewhat slotted based on conference RPI. But in reality, outside of the BCS conferences this doesn't happen. History has really shown us that it doesn't happen.

The saying goes "teams get bids, not conferences".

Here are some interesting things I found from last year:

The SEC is the 6th rated conference. They got 5 bids.

The Mountain West is the 4th best conference and it only got 3 bids.

And just to take it a step further, the PAC-10, which is the 7th best conference got 4 bids.

So here you have conferences that are rated below the 4th rated Mountain West Conference, but they get more bids?

Also the 9th and 10th rated conferences both got 3 bids, while the 8th rated conference only got 2.

Not going to argue with you on this one, cpacmel. You did your homework and I'm buyin' it. But it's got to hold some value at least - I thought that the committee would take notice of a conference with an RPI of 7 vs. a conference with RPI of 9 or 10.
And let's say that the 3rd place team has a 12-6 conf. record with some quality non-conf. wins. That 12-6 conf. record looks a lot more significant in a league with Conf. rank of 7 vs. one of 10. Maybe that's just my thinking though.

[Bravesfan]

And by bottom, you're referring to SIU and BU?

I think the league is pretty strong aside from these 2, and I think BU could still make a run for 6th or 7th if we show continual improvement.

I was also including ISU red and Drake. But perhaps one or two of those four could have a decent Valley showing.

I'm just comparing the non-conference showing we had in 2006 with now. I believe we had every team but one finish above .500 that year, while we may have three or four teams finishing below .500 this year. And perhaps with SIU only winning 2 or 3 non-conference games, if they are lucky! I think this year's SIU team could be as bad as those Drake teams of about 10, 12 years ago where they finished with back to back winless conference seasons, and had only 3 wins all total one of those years if I remember correctly. That won't help the Valley earn more than two, maybe three bids at the most, though we did get two bids both of those years.

[Bravesfan]

LittleBrave, can I ask what's the big deal about conference RPI? In a prefect world at-large bids would be somewhat slotted based on conference RPI. But in reality, outside of the BCS conferences this doesn't happen. History has really shown us that it doesn't happen.

The saying goes "teams get bids, not conferences".

Here are some interesting things I found from last year:

The SEC is the 6th rated conference. They got 5 bids.

The Mountain West is the 4th best conference and it only got 3 bids.

And just to take it a step further, the PAC-10, which is the 7th best conference got 4 bids.

So here you have conferences that are rated below the 4th rated Mountain West Conference, but they get more bids?

Also the 9th and 10th rated conferences both got 3 bids, while the 8th rated conference only got 2.

Chalk some of this up to the "teams earn bids, not conferences theory, and some to Selection Committee bias against the non-BCS conferences.

[cpacmel]

Not going to argue with you on this one, cpacmel. You did your homework and I'm buyin' it. But it's got to hold some value at least - I thought that the committee would take notice of a conference with an RPI of 7 vs. a conference with RPI of 9 or 10.
And let's say that the 3rd place team has a 12-6 conf. record with some quality non-conf. wins. That 12-6 conf. record looks a lot more significant in a league with Conf. rank of 7 vs. one of 10. Maybe that's just my thinking though.

I actually didn't do any homework here. I copied and pasted that from a post I did on redbirdfan last March.

The thing is, it happens EVERY year.

A matter of fact the selection committee chair a few years ago said:

"The committee is not going to consider Conference RPI," Slive said. "It will not be a factor. It will not be part of the nitty-gritty, not on the cheat sheet and not available in the room."

http://www.kentucky.com/2009/02/11/6...-consider.html

[jasonpeoria911]

95% chance the Valley gets 2 in the Big Dance, 2 in the NIT and maybe 1 or 2 in the lesser tourneys.

Jason

[tornado]

Here's the headline on Saluki sports...
"2011 is a year to forget for Saluki Athletics"

..and you thought their problems were only in basketball....?

http://dailyegyptian.com/2011/12/13/2011-is-a-year-to-forget-for-saluki-athletics/

a possible bright spot...the Salukis now prepare for a trip Hawaii but the teams they play are not going to be easy..

http://dailyegyptian.com/2011/12/13/not-just-fun-in-sun-for-siu/

[tornado]

Indiana State was getting talk of being an at large possibility but...
their poor SOS and now their 1-3 start in Valley play had thrown that into doubt
looks like Creighton and WSU are the only schools who have a bid already waiting to to lose...everyone else has to prove something

[Bravesfan]

Indiana State was getting talk of being an at large possibility but...
their poor SOS and now their 1-3 start in Valley play had thrown that into doubt
looks like Creighton and WSU are the only schools who have a bid already waiting to to lose...everyone else has to prove something

Perhaps UNI is still in the mix, but would be in the "work left to do" category. Missouri St. is looking good now, and they finally got their quality top 25 win in conference. But they blew about five good opportunities in non-conference play which kills any at-large talk for them, at least for now. And what really hurt them is that they were in most of those games. So yes, as long as CU and WSU don't have too many bad losses the rest of the way, they should be in good shape, which is an improvement for the Valley over the last four years.

[tornado]

I agree but think UNI has some real work to do to convince any selection committee...
UNI's Strength of Schedule is well over 100, have nothing of note to boast about in their non-conference schedule, have lost at home to Ohio & Evansville, and are 2-2 so far in the MVC

[TheAsianSensation]

UNI's Strength of Schedule is well over 100,

That's funny, I didn't know the number 8 was greater than 100.

That said, you're still right. Their signature wins (Iowa St, Colorado St) have articifically high RPIs right now. If they find a split of their CU/WSU games and a BB win and no bad losses, they'll be fine. Their non-con SoS (11) is going to give them a fighting chance down the stretch in any event.

Ohio is actually not a bad loss at the moment. UE and IlSU are though.