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What-if poll: Illinois or Missouri State in dance?

B

BUSongwriter

New member
Let's say good ol' inconsistent Illinois finishes, as expected, at .500 in the Big Ten. Let's say they lose early (quarterfinals) in the Big Ten tournament.

Let's also say Missouri State advances to the finals of the MVC tourney, but drops a close one in the title game and finishes with a record of 25-8.

If you could only pick one of these two teams for the Big Dance, which would it be? I'm not asking who you think the committee would pick....who would YOU pick?

I would pick Missouri State. A conference champion in one of the Top 12 conferences (I'd be more comfortable saying Top 10, but here we are) deserves respect and reward for their months of success. A match-up involving mid-or-lower division finishing "power conference" teams makes me yawn.

Your pick?
 
Illinois has a better overall profile. Missouri St holds advantages in only 2 categories: overall wins (something just about everyone diminishes these days) and conference finish. And I'm not sure winning the #12 conference has much value - historically, it usually doesn't. Illinois has better wins, and has more depth on their quality win ledger. Of course, balance that with opportunity, but still.
 
Illinois for sure.

They have played better teams - period.
MSU has failed every time they've played someone they could beat outside of the conference. (0-for-4) Yes, they did well in the down Valley, but I think that Creighton 2 years ago was more deserving than this year's Missouri St. team. The Illini have 4 quality non-conf. wins and have marquee wins over Top 20 teams (at that time) Mich. St. & Wisconsin.
Given the scenario at the top, the RPI's would be very close (about 40) But the resume speaks for itself.
 
IMO it doesn't really matter what criteria are looked at, MSU will not get an atlarge bid ahead of Illinois. No matter what other criteria we look at, they will claim some lame excuse like the "eye test". Recall that MSU got left out a few years ago with RPIs of 18 and 24.
 
Da Coach said:
IMO it doesn't really matter what criteria are looked at, MSU will not get an atlarge bid ahead of Illinois. No matter what other criteria we look at, they will claim some lame excuse like the "eye test". Recall that MSU got left out a few years ago with RPIs of 18 and 24.
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While true, MSU is also going to lose most of the stat-based arguments as well this year.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Illinois has a better overall profile. Missouri St holds advantages in only 2 categories: overall wins (something just about everyone diminishes these days) and conference finish. And I'm not sure winning the #12 conference has much value - historically, it usually doesn't. Illinois has better wins, and has more depth on their quality win ledger. Of course, balance that with opportunity, but still.
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There's one other category you're forgetting that I've always heard was important.....how are the teams playing heading into the tournament?

My scenario of Illinois losing in the Big 10 quarterfinals has them ending the season losing 10 of their final 15, with not one of the five wins being a surprisingly good one.

That's simply not a team I feel has earned its way into the Dance. Give me a conference champion any day.
 
BUSongwriter said:
There's one other category you're forgetting that I've always heard was important.....how are the teams playing heading into the tournament?

My scenario of Illinois losing in the Big 10 quarterfinals has them ending the season losing 10 of their final 15, with not one of the five wins being a surprisingly good one.

That's simply not a team I feel has earned its way into the Dance. Give me a conference champion any day.
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The only good thing going for MSU is that they won the conference in front of a national audience (ESPN2); however they lost in embarrassment on ESPN2 a week earlier. The Bears might squeak into the last 4 if they don't win Arch Madness, but U of I gets in with a better seed easily, and I would seed them better myself.
 
Missouri State swung and missed every chance they had in the non-conference. It's really a no-brainer that Illinois gets in WAY ahead of Missouri State.
 
So......here we are. And I'd still take Mo State over an Illinois team that lost 10 of its last 16. Not that it's going to happen. Just my preference.

I could be convinced that neither of them earned it, but I'd take a conference champion over the way Illinois finished.
 
when a mid-major wins it sells more Sports Illustrateds...so I go with Missouri State

0330_mid.jpg
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I'm not an Illini fan (I do not hate them either) and I'd rather have MSU get the bid but Illinois deserves to be in and MSU frankly did not do enough. The Big 10 was the #1 conference and there is no reason they cannot see 6 teams in the dance.

Ohio
Purdue
Wisky
MSU
Illinois
Mich.
 
tornado said:
when a mid-major wins it sells more Sports Illustrateds...so I go with Missouri State

0330_mid.jpg
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Click to expand...

It may sell more SI's but, even as an MVC and Mid-Major fan in general, the rating DECREASE when a non-BCS school advances further.

I was surprised to hear and see it, but when George Mason went to the Final Four, it was one of the least viewed Final Four games of all time. Same thing with Boise and/or TCY playing in BCS games. While it seems like EVERYONE watches them, but numbers just to bare this out... I do not have the facts in front of me but nearly every situation like this results in lower ratings (one of "The Herd's" biggest arguments about Mid-majors being "feel good stories..." yadda yadda yadda. I don't often like seeing him correct, but after some research, he was correct.

If it was the other way around, the NCAA would want mid-majors in the field...
 
Magazine covers is not an official selection criteria ;)

My answer is Illinois, but it's close now.

Last 4 in
Michigan St
Illinois
Alabama
Harvard**
Boston College

Last 4 out
USC
Georgia
UAB
Missouri St
 
MSU wins our conference and loses one important game in ST L. ILL limps in with a horrible finish but they will take the BCS over the Valley . Hope its MSU
 
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