TAS Bracketology 2011 Edition

[TheAsianSensation]

Last 3 in
St Mary's
Alabama
Boston College

Last 5 out
Georgia
UAB
Penn St
Missouri St
USC


If you're curious....Illinois, the Michigans, are clear of the bubble, IMO. So is Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Colorado.

On the other end, Wichita St, VCU, the loser of Memphis/UTEP, Wazzu, UNM and CSU, fall off on the other side.

We're down to 8 teams for 3 spots, with minimal bid poacher risk (the last realistic bid poacher will be lurking in the A-10 final)

[Bravesfan]

Last 3 in
St Mary's
Alabama
Boston College

Last 5 out
Georgia
UAB
Penn St
Missouri St
USC


If you're curious....Illinois, the Michigans, are clear of the bubble, IMO. So is Clemson, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Colorado.

On the other end, Wichita St, VCU, the loser of Memphis/UTEP, Wazzu, UNM and CSU, fall off on the other side.

We're down to 8 teams for 3 spots, with minimal bid poacher risk (the last realistic bid poacher will be lurking in the A-10 final)

I agree about Alabama being in. I mean 12-4 from a power conference not being in the tournament? I don't care how weak a division they played in, I don't believe there has ever been a power conference team not making the tourney with a .750 conference winning percentage outside of a team on probabation.

And if Alabama does not make the tourney, I would not at all blame them for griping about being passed over the same way Missouri St. will probably be doing tomorrow!

[Bravesfan]

Just to update for the final time, Joe Lunardi has Colorado and USC in, with USC in one of the "first four" games. Jerry Palm of CBSsports.com has Colorado and USC out, with VCU and Georgia in, with VCU in one of the "first four" games. So obviously there is still room for error, and who knows what has been discussed in the committee room over night.

Both have Harvard now in the "last four out" category, and I also agree that this team needs a serious look, if they haven't got one yet. They beat fellow bubble teams Colorado and Boston College, and split against Princeton in the regular season. And this gives them a better bubble profile against other bubble teams, especially Missouri St. Plus outside of a bad loss to Yale, they too have won all the games they were supposed to. So I'm hoping if Missouri St. can't get in, Harvard can, considering yesterday's game was about as close to finishing as a tie as you can get.

[TheAsianSensation]

THE FINAL BUBBLE

Last 2 in
St Mary's
Alabama

Last 5 out
Georgia
USC
Harvard
UAB
Boston College

My last act is to take Missouri St off the board - they're behind Harvard, UAB, and St Mary's if the committee decided to go mid-major with their final spots, so they're out no matter what.

Again, what this list means: if anyone above the bubble misses the tourney, I'll be shocked, and if anyone below this bubble makes it, I'll be incensed. These are the swing teams.

[Tulsa Brave]

Looks like you have the same 68 in that I do, and Alabama is really the only one I'm concerned about.

[TheAsianSensation]

The 1 line
Ohio St (31-2)
Kansas (32-2)
Pittsburgh (27-5)
Duke (30-4)

The 2 line
Notre Dame (26-6)
North Carolina (26-7)
Connecticut (26-9)
San Diego St (30-2)

The 3 line
BYU (29-4)
Texas (27-7)
Purdue (25-7)
Louisville (25-9)

The 4 line
Kentucky (25-
Florida (26-7)
Syracuse (26-7)
Wisconsin (23-

The 5 line
Arizona (27-7)
Xavier (24-7)
Texas A&M (23-
St John's (21-11)

The 6 line
Georgetown (21-10)
Vanderbilt (23-10)
Temple (25-7)
West Virginia (20-11)

The 7 line
George Mason (26-6)
Washington (23-10)
UCLA (22-10)
Cincinnati (25-

The 8 line
Kansas St (21-10)
UNLV (24-
Old Dominion (27-6)
Florida St (21-10)

The 9 line
Missouri (22-10)
Richmond (27-7)
Utah St (29-3)
Gonzaga (23-9)

The 10 line
Butler (22-9)
Marquette (20-14)
Villanova (21-11)
Tennessee (19-14)

The 11 line
Michigan (19-13)
Michigan St (18-14)
Memphis (25-9)
Virginia Tech (21-11)

The 12 line
Illinois (19-13)
Penn St (19-13)
Clemson (21-11)
Colorado (20-13)
St Mary's (23-
Alabama (21-11)

The 13 line
Belmont (30-4)
Princeton (24-6)
Oakland (24-9)
Morehead St (22-9)

The 14 line
Indiana St (19-13)
St Peter's (20-13)
Akron (22-12)
Long Island (27-5)

The 15 line
Wofford (21-12)
Bucknell (25-
Northern Colorado (19-10)
Boston (21-13)

The 16 line
UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)
Hampton (23-
NC-Asheville (16-13)
Texas-San Antonio (16-13)
Arkansas-Little Rock (17-16)
Alabama St (15-17)

[amckillip]

SDSU and BYU in the same regional so only 1 could advance? It really would surprise me...

[TheAsianSensation]

SDSU and BYU in the same regional so only 1 could advance? It really would surprise me...

There's explicit bracket rules against that.

In fact, according to the bracket rules and the fact the Big East is everywhere in the top seeds....I have projected that Duke, the worst #1, is going to have the worst #2 and #3 seeds in its regional.

[Bravesfan]

Looks like you have the same 68 in that I do, and Alabama is really the only one I'm concerned about.

I have Alabama in too. Any team with a 12-4 record in a BCS should be a shoo-in despite the rotten division they played in.

[Bravesfan]

THE FINAL BUBBLE

Last 2 in
St Mary's
Alabama

Last 5 out
Georgia
USC
Harvard
UAB
Boston College

My last act is to take Missouri St off the board - they're behind Harvard, UAB, and St Mary's if the committee decided to go mid-major with their final spots, so they're out no matter what.

Again, what this list means: if anyone above the bubble misses the tourney, I'll be shocked, and if anyone below this bubble makes it, I'll be incensed. These are the swing teams.

Yup, I think I have to finally admit that Missouri St. has very little if any chance of making it. And if it came down to several mid-major teams, I would give it to Harvard over MSU due to some nice non-conference wins.

And I like Alabama as well. (See my above post).

And that's one UGLY looking 16 line, thanks to all of those low-major upset victims now clogging up the NIT! I don't think we will be seeing any 16/1 upsets this year.

[TheAsianSensation]

EAST

@Cleveland
1) Ohio St (31-2) vs. 16) NC-Asheville (16-13)/Alabama St (15-17)
8 )Florida St (21-10) vs. 9) Missouri (22-10)

@Tampa
4) Florida (26-7) vs. 13) Princeton (24-6)
5) St John's (21-11) vs. 12) Colorado (20-13)/St Mary's (23-8 )

@Tulsa
3) Texas (27-7) vs. 14) St Peter's (20-13)
6) Temple (25-7) vs. 11) Virginia Tech (21-11)

@DC
2) Connecticut (26-9) vs. 15) Boston (21-13)
7) UCLA (22-10) vs. 10) Michigan (19-13)

WEST

@Charlotte
1) Duke (30-4) vs. 16) Hampton (23-8 )
8 )Richmond (27-7) vs. 9) Utah St (29-3)

@Tuscon
4) Syracuse (26-7) vs. 13) Morehead St (22-9)
5) Texas A&M (23-8 ) vs. 12) Penn St (19-13)

@Tampa
3) Louisville (25-9) vs. 14) Long Island (27-5)
6) Vanderbilt (23-10) vs. 11) Memphis (25-9)

@Tuscon
2) San Diego St (30-2) vs. 15) Northern Colorado (19-10)
7) George Mason (26-6) vs. 10) Marquette (20-14)

SOUTHEAST

@Cleveland
1) Pittsburgh (27-5) vs. 16) Arkansas-Little Rock (17-16)/Texas-San Antonio (16-13)
8 )Kansas St (21-10) vs. 9) Old Dominion (27-6)

@Denver
4) Wisconsin (23-8 ) vs. 13) Oakland (24-9)
5) Arizona (27-7) vs. 12) Clemson (21-11)/Alabama (21-11)

@Denver
3) BYU (29-4) vs. 14) Indiana St (19-13)
6) Georgetown (21-10) vs. 11) Michigan St (18-14)

@Charlotte
2) North Carolina (26-7) vs. 15) Bucknell (25-8 )
7) Cincinnati (25-8 ) vs. 10) Tennessee (19-14)

SOUTHWEST

@Tulsa
1) Kansas (32-2) vs. 16) UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)
8 )UNLV (24-8 ) vs. 9) Gonzaga (23-9)

@DC
4) Kentucky (25-8 ) vs. 13) Belmont (30-4)
5) West Virginia (20-11) vs. 12) Illinois (19-13)

@Chicago
3) Purdue (25-7) vs. 14) Akron (22-12)
6) Xavier (24-7) vs. 11) Villanova (21-11)

@Chicago
2) Notre Dame (26-6) vs. 15) Wofford (21-12)
7) Washington (23-10) vs. 10) Butler (22-9)

[TheAsianSensation]

Break it down!

Big East 11
Big 10 7
Big 12 6
ACC 5
SEC 5
Pac 10 3
A-10 3
MWC 3
CAA 2
WCC 2

[Bravesfan]

Break it down!

Big East 11
Big 10 7
Big 12 6
ACC 5
SEC 5
Pac 10 3
A-10 3
MWC 3
CAA 2
WCC 2

Not too bad a showing from the mids, but still could be a LOT better. I'm still hopeful Harvard can get in, even if at the expense of Missouri St.

[TheAsianSensation]

NIT

EAST
1) Boston College (20-12) vs. 8 )Bethune-Cookman (17-12)
4) Hofstra (20-11) vs. 5) Nebraska (19-12)
3) Cleveland St (24-8 ) vs. 6) Fairfield (24-7)
2) Harvard (21-6) vs. 7) Vermont (23-8 )

SOUTH
1) Georgia (21-11) vs. 8 )Florida Atlantic (19-10)
4) Dayton (22-13) vs. 5) California (17-14)
3) Wichita St (23-8 ) vs. 6) Charleston (24-10)
2) VCU (23-11) vs. 7) Coastal Carolina (24-5)

MIDWEST
1) Missouri St (25-8 ) vs. 8 )McNeese St (17-11)
4) Southern Miss (19-10) vs. 5) New Mexico (20-12)
3) Washington St (19-12) vs. 7) Milwaukee (19-13)
2) UAB (22-8 ) vs. 7) Murray St (21-8 )

WEST
1) USC (19-14) vs. 8 )Long Beach St (20-11)
4) Baylor (17-13) vs. 5) Tulsa (19-13)
3) Colorado St (18-12) vs. 6) Kent St (22-11)
2) UTEP (24-9) vs. 7) Texas Southern (19-12)

Note: The geography of these brackets are quite screwy. I don't see how the NIT keeps teams from major road trips without majorly comprimising the seeds of the teams in the field.

[TheAsianSensation]

Not too bad a showing from the mids, but still could be a LOT better. I'm still hopeful Harvard can get in, even if at the expense of Missouri St.

Only 6 out of 37 is actually really bad this year.