TAS Bracketology 2011 Edition

[TheAsianSensation]

EAST

@Cleveland
1) Ohio St (27-2) vs. 16) McNeese St (14-9)/Texas Southern (16-10)
8 )UNLV (22-7) vs. 9) Cincinnati (22-7)

@Tampa
4) Connecticut (21-7) vs. 13) Belmont (27-4)
5) Texas A&M (21-6) vs. 12) UAB (20-7)

@Charlotte
3) North Carolina (22-6) vs. 14) Vermont (22-7)
6) UCLA (21-8 ) vs. 11) Gonzaga (20-9)

@Chicago
2) Notre Dame (23-5) vs. 15) Long Island (24-5)
7) Kentucky (20-8 ) vs. 10) Richmond (22-7)

WEST

@Denver
1) BYU (26-2) vs. 16) Northern Colorado (15-10)
8 )Florida St (22-8 ) vs. 9) Washington (19-9)

@DC
4) Syracuse (24-6) vs. 13) Charleston (22-9)
5) Kansas St (19-9) vs. 12) Missouri St (23-7)

@Tampa
3) Florida (22-6) vs. 14) Milwaukee (18-12)
6) Georgetown (21-8 ) vs. 11) Baylor (17-10)

@Chicago
2) Purdue (24-5) vs. 15) Bucknell (22-8 )
7) Temple (22-6) vs. 10) Marquette (18-11)

SOUTHEAST

@Cleveland
1) Pittsburgh (25-4) vs. 16) Florida Atlantic (19-9)/Bethune-Cookman (14-11)
8 )Missouri (21-7) vs. 9) Old Dominion (24-6)

@Denver
4) Xavier (22-6) vs. 13) Princeton (21-5)
5) Vanderbilt (21-7) vs. 12) Colorado (17-11)/Butler (20-9)

@Tulsa
3) Texas (24-5) vs. 14) Fairfield (23-6)
6) Villanova (21-8 ) vs. 11) Georgia (19-9)

@Charlotte
2) Duke (26-3) vs. 15) Coastal Carolina (22-4)
7) West Virginia (18-10) vs. 10) Illinois (18-11)

SOUTHWEST

@Tulsa
1) Kansas (27-2) vs. 16) Murray St (21-7)
8 )Utah St (25-3) vs. 9) Virginia Tech (19-8 )

@DC
4) Louisville (22-7) vs. 13) Oakland (21-9)
5) Arizona (23-6) vs. 12) Michigan St (15-12)/Alabama (19-9)

@Tuscon
3) San Diego St (25-2) vs. 14) Kent St (18-10)
6) St John's (19-9) vs. 11) St Mary's (21-7)

@Tuscon
2) Wisconsin (22-6) vs. 15) Long Beach St (17-10)
7) George Mason (25-5) vs. 10) Tennessee (17-12)

[TheAsianSensation]

The above bracket was done Monday, so 2 changes: take out Baylor and Alabama after insufferable losses yesterday.

I won't update the whole bracket after yesterday but here's my updated bubble:

Next 4 in:
Richmond
Georgia
St Mary's
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Butler
Boston College
Colorado
Memphis

Last 4 out:
Harvard
Alabama
Michigan
Wichita St

Next 4 out:
Baylor
Nebraska
Colorado St
USC

[TheAsianSensation]

Daily updates!

Next 4 in:
Richmond
Georgia
St Mary's
Michigan St

Last 4 in:
Butler
Boston College
Harvard
Alabama

Last 4 out:
Michigan
Wichita St
Baylor
Colorado

Next 4 out:
Memphis
Nebraska
Colorado St
USC

[TheAsianSensation]

I suspect interest in gone for this year in this thread, as the MVC interests this year are pretty cut-and-dry - MSU isn't probably going to go and Indiana St will probably end up as a 14 seed now.

I'd continue, but this year, more than ever, the bubble is filled with nothing but power conference garbage. That's not completely bad news, because it means the likes of Gonzaga, Butler, St Mary's, Richmond, ODU, and George Mason are all safely above the bubble right now.

[Bravesfan]

I suspect interest in gone for this year in this thread, as the MVC interests this year are pretty cut-and-dry - MSU isn't probably going to go and Indiana St will probably end up as a 14 seed now.

I'd continue, but this year, more than ever, the bubble is filled with nothing but power conference garbage. That's not completely bad news, because it means the likes of Gonzaga, Butler, St Mary's, Richmond, ODU, and George Mason are all safely above the bubble right now.

Well, I understand how you feel about the Valley this year TAS, but I'm one of the few who thinks MSU still has at least a semi-decent shot of making it, still under 50%, but not completely dead either.

My question to you is this: Browsing Jerry Palm's Bracketology page on CBSSports.com (which is far better than Lunardi's, and free too!), I just don't see how the likes of Michigan, Michigan St., Georgia and Alabama can get in ahead of Missouri St.! Let me give you a few examples.

First, Georgia. They are 3-9 against the RPI top 50 and 1-3 against the RPI top 25. No sub 100 RPI losses though. They are 4th in the SEC East. Michigan is 3-8 vs. the top 50 and 0-7 (!) vs the top 25. Puhleeze! And they are considered a team that "should be in" by most pundits???

How about Michigan St.? Another "stellar" 1-8 record vs. the top 25 and 3-9 vs. the top 50! And then you have Alabama with that "great" (NOT!) 5-4 record vs the RPI 101-200!

There are other examples of bubble teams with similar resumes as well. Marquette is 4-11 vs the top 50, but at least they are 4-8 vs. the top 25. They are more qualified than the above group. Even USC with three hideous losses to sub 200 RPI teams, ourselves included, are also a very solid 5-4 against the RPI top 50 and 2-2 vs. the RPI top 25. I'd even put them in ahead of those first four teams!

The only issue with Missouri St. is that through a combination of bad luck which they could not control, they played only one game against the top 50 which they lost, and have only two really bad losses to sub 100 teams. And because of that, their top 50 record should not even be counted. There are other factors that can be used, one of which is a Valley championship, a second is that they won most of the games they were supposed to, and third, they are more consistent than those first four teams I mentioned. While those four teams show they can beat good teams, the fact that most averaged only 3 wins out of over 12 games shows me that it is not how many wins over the top 50 that should be considered, but what percentage of games are won. And while Missouri St. does not have enough raw data to determine how well they would do against the elite teams, they do show that they probably at least have as good a chance as any of those above mentioned teams to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Why should the selection committee eliminate them from consideration just because they played the hand they were dealt with?

I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and give Missouri St. that tournament bid that they truly deserve, in spite of the down MVC this year. If nothing else, with the exception of their Bracketbuster game against Valpo, they have had the look of a tournament team all year!

[TheAsianSensation]

The only issue with Missouri St. is that through a combination of bad luck which they could not control, they played only one game against the top 50 which they lost, and have only two really bad losses to sub 100 teams. And because of that, their top 50 record should not even be counted. There are other factors that can be used, one of which is a Valley championship, a second is that they won most of the games they were supposed to, and third, they are more consistent than those first four teams I mentioned. While those four teams show they can beat good teams, the fact that most averaged only 3 wins out of over 12 games shows me that it is not how many wins over the top 50 that should be considered, but what percentage of games are won. And while Missouri St. does not have enough raw data to determine how well they would do against the elite teams, they do show that they probably at least have as good a chance as any of those above mentioned teams to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Why should the selection committee eliminate them from consideration just because they played the hand they were dealt with?

It's not bad luck, it's bad scheduling. Or at least rather marginal scheduling.

Missouri St would have a much much MUCH stronger case if they could've converted any of their 4 best opportunities in the non-con. In order to properly make the argument you present, you have to convert at least a couple of the semi-real opportunities you get. That way you can claim opportunity to play quality opponents was a problem. However,they lost their 4 best non-con games.

I usually champion the idea of the mid major not getting a sufficient opportunity, but in order to do that, the team has to convert some of what opportunity they do get.

[TheAsianSensation]

The 1 line
Ohio St (29-2)
Kansas (29-2)
Pittsburgh (27-4)
Duke (27-4)

The 2 line
Notre Dame (25-5)
North Carolina (24-6)
Florida (24-6)
BYU (27-3)

The 3 line
Purdue (25-6)
Texas (25-6)
San Diego St (27-2)
Syracuse (25-6)

The 4 line
Wisconsin (23-7)
Louisville (23-8 )
Xavier (24-6)
Arizona (25-6)

The 5 line
St John's (20-10)
Connecticut (21-9)
Kansas St (21-9)
Georgetown (21-9)

The 6 line
Kentucky (22-8 )
West Virginia (21-10)
Texas A&M (22-7)
Vanderbilt (21-9)

The 7 line
Villanova (21-10)
Temple (24-6)
George Mason (26-6)
UCLA (22-9)

The 8 line
Cincinnati (24-7)
Old Dominion (27-6)
UNLV (23-7)
Tennessee (18-13)

The 9 line
Utah St (27-3)
Florida St (21-9)
Washington (20-10)
Missouri (21-9)

The 10 line
Gonzaga (22-9)
Richmond (24-7)
Illinois (19-12)
Marquette (18-13)

The 11 line
UAB (22-7)
Boston College (19-11)
Virginia Tech (19-10)
St Mary's (22-7)

The 12 line
Butler (21-9)
Michigan (18-12)
Michigan St (16-13)
Clemson (20-10)
Harvard (21-5)
Colorado (18-12)

The 13 line
Belmont (30-4)
Oakland (23-9)
Morehead St (22-9)
Milwaukee (19-12)

The 14 line
Kent St (20-10)
Indiana St (19-13)
St Peter's (20-13)
Bucknell (24-8 )

The 15 line
Long Beach St (18-10)
Long Island (26-5)
Wofford (20-12)
Northern Colorado (17-10)

The 16 line
Boston (20-13)
NC-Asheville (16-13)
Texas Southern (18-11)
McNeese St (15-10)
Bethune-Cookman (16-11)
North Texas (20-10)

Next 7 in
Richmond
Illinois
Marquette
UAB**
Boston College
Virginia Tech
St Mary's
Butler

Last 4 in
Michigan
Michigan St
Clemson
Harvard**
Colorado

Last 4 out
Alabama (20-10)
Georgia (20-10)
Missouri St (25-8 )
USC (18-13)

Next 4 out
Wichita St (23-8 )
Colorado St (18-11)
Baylor (17-12)
Memphis (22-9)

Hope and a prayer
Penn St (16-13)
VCU (23-11)
Nebraska (19-11)
UTEP (22-8 )
Washington St (19-11)
Souther Miss (18-9)
Cleveland St (24-8 )
California (17-13)

[Bravesfan]

It's not bad luck, it's bad scheduling. Or at least rather marginal scheduling.

Missouri St would have a much much MUCH stronger case if they could've converted any of their 4 best opportunities in the non-con. In order to properly make the argument you present, you have to convert at least a couple of the semi-real opportunities you get. That way you can claim opportunity to play quality opponents was a problem. However,they lost their 4 best non-con games.

I usually champion the idea of the mid major not getting a sufficient opportunity, but in order to do that, the team has to convert some of what opportunity they do get.

That makes sense, but what about those four teams I mentioned? They each had plenty of opportunites but whiffed on just about all of them.

[Da Coach]

Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Missouri State is one of the "First Four Out"
And he has Indiana State as a #14 seed vs. #3 seed Syracuse.
Have any previous MVC bids ever been this low?
That would mean 1 and done for the MVC again, IMO.

[TheAsianSensation]

Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Missouri State is one of the "First Four Out"
And he has Indiana State as a #14 seed vs. #3 seed Syracuse.
Have any previous MVC bids ever been this low?
That would mean 1 and done for the MVC again, IMO.

I'm almost positive the MVC hasn't had a seed that low in at least 15-20 years. Bradley's '06 seed (13) is the only one close, and that seed was almost certainly the result of a "procedural move" from the 12 line.

Valley rooting interests the next few days: Oral Roberts over Oakland and Anyone over Kent St. Those may be the keys to squeezing Indiana St onto the 13 line and at least a fighting chance.

[TheAsianSensation]

Really interesting story brewing out of Weber State. I'll give you the cliff notes version:

In his 9th game of the season, their star point guard Damian Lillard went down for the season with an injury. Now, we all know the 30% rule when it comes to medical redshirts. And right now, Weber St is doing everything in its power to get there. They need to play 31 games this season to get Lillard qualified for a medical redshirt.

They had 29 games on the regular season schedule. Since they're theoretically only guaranteed one conference tournament game, that could leave them one short of getting the redshirt.

However, they had one opening left on their schedule, one more regular season game they were allowed to schedule because of the NCAA scheduling rules.

Enter St Mary's.

And that's how St Mary's just got sucked into a potential catastrophic loss when they will play Weber St in a non-con game on Friday.

[Bravesfan]

Really interesting story brewing out of Weber State. I'll give you the cliff notes version:

In his 9th game of the season, their star point guard Damian Lillard went down for the season with an injury. Now, we all know the 30% rule when it comes to medical redshirts. And right now, Weber St is doing everything in its power to get there. They need to play 31 games this season to get Lillard qualified for a medical redshirt.

They had 29 games on the regular season schedule. Since they're theoretically only guaranteed one conference tournament game, that could leave them one short of getting the redshirt.

However, they had one opening left on their schedule, one more regular season game they were allowed to schedule because of the NCAA scheduling rules.

Enter St Mary's.

And that's how St Mary's just got sucked into a potential catastrophic loss when they will play Weber St in a non-con game on Friday.

And this is the second year St. Mary's scheduled a post WCC Tournament game on their schedule to try to convince the selection committee that they are at-large worthy. Obviously that will be a bit of a problem should they lose this game!

Oh, do you think Villanova's bubble popped after the loss tonight to S. Florida in the Big East tourney?

[TheAsianSensation]

And this is the second year St. Mary's scheduled a post WCC Tournament game on their schedule to try to convince the selection committee that they are at-large worthy. Obviously that will be a bit of a problem should they lose this game!

Oh, do you think Villanova's bubble popped after the loss tonight to S. Florida in the Big East tourney?

I can't imagine St Mary's scheduled this game for resume purposes. It doesn't move the needle any. My guess is that Weber is making this worth while for some other reason.

Nova is in. 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, top 20 SoS, .500 in the #1 conference, there's just too much meat on that bone. Their form is ugly, though. For them to drop out, teams like Illinois and Michigan would have to be ahead of them. Ick.

[Bravesfan]

I can't imagine St Mary's scheduled this game for resume purposes. It doesn't move the needle any. My guess is that Weber is making this worth while for some other reason.

Nova is in. 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, top 20 SoS, .500 in the #1 conference, there's just too much meat on that bone. Their form is ugly, though. For them to drop out, teams like Illinois and Michigan would have to be ahead of them. Ick.

Yeah. That's scary!

[TheAsianSensation]

Here's an updated look at The Seth Greenberg Memorial Bubble:

Next 8 in
Villanova
Richmond
Illinois
Marquette
UAB**
Boston College
Virginia Tech
St Mary's
Michigan

Last 4 in
Michigan St
Clemson
Harvard**
Colorado
Georgia

Last 4 out
Alabama
Missouri St
USC
Wichita St

Next 4 out
Colorado St
Baylor
Memphis
Penn St

Hope and a prayer
VCU
UTEP
Washington St
Southern Miss
Cleveland St
California