TAS Bracketology 2011 Edition

[TheAsianSensation]

Better late than never.

Get edumacated with my bubble watch today and bracket (hopefully) over the weekend.

Missouri Valley

Missouri St (19-6) (11-3) RPI 50 SoS 141
Non-con RPI/SoS 73/228
Road/neutral 6-5
0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Some clues to MSU's problems are in the non-conference numbers. Their only RPI Top 150 win out of conference is Pacific. They lost on the road to the Indiana schools, which negates their big run through the @WSU-@UNI-@CU gauntlet. Whiffed on their 3 biggest opportunities (@UT, @OSU, @Tulsa). I don't want to call @Valpo a must-win, but....it's a must win. They need to lean on the value of a regular-season MVC title if they get it.

Wichita St (19-5) (11-3) RPI 59 SoS 120
Non-con RPI/SoS 110/79
Road/neutral 8-2
0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100

At least the R/N numbers are there to help. Don't underestimate their power. But right now, their 2 RPI Top 100 wins are Tulsa and Evansville. Ruh roh. Again, the power of a MVC regular season title will help, but there's a distinct lack of meat on this resume. They have something MSU doesn't - a ghastly loss (SIU) on the resume.

Northern Iowa (17-8 )(9-5) RPI 71 SoS 122
Non-con RPI/SoS 54/194
Road/neutral 6-7
1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 100

On the brink of falling off the bubble, but those 4 wins keep them in. Simply put, winning at Missouri St AND Wichita St, plus the neutral of New Mexico, are 3 better wins than either MSU or WSU's best wins. However, there's a ghastly FIVE losses on the road to teams outside the RPI Top 100. They need a big close, but if they grab a piece of the Valley title, they'll have a better resume than either MSU or WSU. Worth noting.

Probable postseason teams:
Evansville (13-10) (8-6) RPI 99 SoS 92
Indiana St (12-12) (8-6) RPI 118 SoS 84
Creighton (15-11) (7-7) RPI 145 SoS 166

The bottom line: Right on the fence about this league getting an at-large bid.

[TheAsianSensation]

Big Televen

Ohio St (24-0) (11-0) RPI 3 SoS 55
Non-con SoS/RPI 18/106
Road/neutral 8-0
6-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-0 vs. RPI Top 100

Ho-hum. It's worth noting that 55 is a rather marginal number for an overall #1 seed, so they'll get overtaken more quickly than you think if they drop multiple games down the stretch.

Purdue (19-5) (8-3) RPI 12 SoS 28
Non-con RPI/SoS 17/77
Road/neutral 6-5
2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-5 vs. RPI Top 100

They're in a good battle to be a protected seed. Whiffed on 4 toughest road games, which is a potential black mark, and there's really not a win you can get truly excited about (their quality wins are probably Minnesota and Michigan St right now). Still in lockdom, though.

Wisconsin (18-5) (8-3) RPI 21 SoS 66
Non-con RPI/SoS 30/155
Road/neutral 5-5
5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI Top 100

In slightly better shape than Purdue right now as there's a little more bulk in their quality win category. They've beaten Purdue already, and the return game in Purdue may be for the 3 line.

Illinois (16-8 )(6-5) RPI 31 SoS 24
Non-con RPI/SoS 35/66
Road/neutral 5-7
4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-6 vs. RPI Top 100

I'd suggest staying above .500 in conference, but they're peaches if they do. All the rest of the numbers are too good to leave out (although another road win to supplement the one over Minnesota would be nice).

Minnesota (16-8 )(5-7) RPI 35 SoS 22
Non-con RPI/SoS 4/130
Road/neutral 5-5
3-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-6 vs. RPI Top 100

Probably #5 in Big 10 pecking order by default. Whiffed on road at Wisky/MSU/OSU/Purdue, and they're out of opportunites for an impact road win. The good news for them is they have 2 neutral wins vs. WVU and UNC to hang their hat on. And also, their final 6 Big 10 games are easy. They really should win 4 or 5 of them. Prediction: If they get back to 9-9 in conference, they're good to go. But now, for them, comes the pressure of winning the games you're supposed to. Two Penn States, an Iowa, a Northwestern, and both Michigans.

Michigan St (13-10) (6-6) RPI 49 SoS 15
Non-con RPI/SoS 59/23
Road/neutral 3-8
3-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-9 vs. RPI Top 100

In trouble, with the SoS saving them for now. Look at the next 4: @OSU, UI, @UM, PU. We'll know a lot more after those. 2-2 is the target, IMO.

Michigan (14-10) (5-7) RPI 56 SoS 13
Non-con RPI/SoS 51/58
Road/nuetral 3-6
1-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-9 vs. RPI Top 100

Only here really because of the SoS, but 1-7 vs. RPI Top 50 says all that needs to be said. We'll pay attention because the schedule sets up for a potential 4-2 or 5-1 finish that can get them in play.

Penn St (12-11) (5-7) RPI 68 SoS 5
Non-con RPI/SoS 86-16
Road/neutral 1-7
3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-10 vs. RPI Top 100

Slim and none, but slim made a hotel reservation. We've seen the committee do funky things for teams with sterling SoS numbers, but 4-10 vs. RPI Top 100? No way that makes it.

Northwestern (14-9) (4-8 )RPI 79 SoS 81
Non/con RPI/SoS 11/295
Road/neutral 4-6
1-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-9 vs. RPI Top 100

If 4-10 isn't good enough for PSU, 2-9 sure as heck isn't for NU. Probably a loss away from sliding off the list.

The bottom line: 5.5 bids for the Big 10. The odds of Minny falling off are roughly equal to the odds of one of NU, PSU, or UM moving up. Michigan St is the swing school.

[TheAsianSensation]

Big Beast

Pittsburgh (22-2) (10-1) RPI 5 SoS 20
Non-con RPI/SoS 20/74
Road/neutral 8-1
6-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-2 vs. RPI Top 100

Easily the resume of a #1 seed, so we'll move on. Note the wins over N-Texas, UConn, and @Georgetown. It's nice to have trump cards over teams that might threaten your #1 seed status down the line.

Connecticut (18-5) (6-5) RPI 13 SoS 19
Non-con RPI/SoS 7/34
Road/neutral 7-3
5-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Probably a couple too many losses to fit on the 1 line, but should be an easy protected seed. I'd try to gravitate from .500 in conference just in case, though. Very quality non-conference work here, by the way. N-Kentucky, @Texas for starters.

Georgetown (19-5) (8-4) RPI 4 SoS 3
Non-con RPI/SoS 13/3
Road/neutral 10-3
8-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-5 vs. RPI Top 100

This resume is more solid than people think. This feels like a resume worthy of the 2 line to me. A couple too many losses, but more than enough quality. 13 games vs. RPI Top 50! They will be rewarded for this aggressive scheduling out of conference.

Notre Dame (20-4) (9-3) RPI 7 SoS 21
Non-con RPI/SoS 2/148
Road/neutral 5-4
8-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Only if that non-con SoS was a little stronger. And it even includes Georgia, Wisky, and Gonzaga! Maybe a bit unlucky there. Can't see this profile getting to the 1 line, although a Big East title would be a magic elixir.

Villanova (19-5) (7-4) RPI 14 SoS 33
Non-con RPI/SoS 5/141
Road/neutral 6-4
6-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Alas, the difference between the above teams and Nova: Losses at Provi and Rutgers. The bad loss is always the difference between the 2 line and the 4 line. Easily in the tourney, though.

Syracuse (20-5) (7-5) RPI 19 SoS 32
Non-con RPI/SoS 10/156
Road/neutral 7-2
5-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Your quintessential 4 seed. Nothing really to discuss here. They're fine.

West Virginia (15-8 )(6-5) RPI 17 SoS 4
Non/con RPI/SoS 43/5
Road/neutral 6-6
5-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-8 vs. RPI Top 100

That SoS with the rest of those numbers ain't missing a tournament. Borderline 4 seed. Their problem is the rather even split of wins and losses in their quality games - protected seeds usually creep up above .500. But the #4 SoS will be rewarded.

Oh, by the way, WVU is the Big East NUMBER SEVEN. SEVEN OF THE SIXTEEN PROTECTED SEEDS COULD EASILY BE BIG EAST TEAMS.

Louisville (18-6) (7-4) RPI 26 SoS 38
Non-con RPI/SoS 39/86
Road/neutral 3-4
5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100

And really, UL as a protected seed can be argued too. I just don't know how much room is available! They're safely inside the bubble.

St John's (14-9) (6-5) RPI 20 SoS 2
Non-con RPI/SoS 27/40
Road/neutral 5-6
5-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-7 vs. RPI Top 100

Onto team #9 in the Beast. And is this resume worth punishing? Nope. Wins over UConn, ND, G'town, Duke...this is the NUMBER NINE TEAM!!! They're looking at more of the 4-7 seed range, though.

Marquette (15-9) (6-5) RPI 54 SoS 37
Non-con RPI/SoS 46/208
Road/neutral 3-7
3-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-9 vs. RPI Top 100

Finally we get into bubble territory. Their best road win is Rutgers - that won't fly. They need a road scalp, even if it's just one, just to prove they can do it. The R/N numbers and non-con SoS aren't good enough. This will be the team everyone argues about when comparing, say, Missouri St with Marquette. Missouri St whiffed on all their chances, Marquette gets a billion chances and did convert a couple of them (ND in particular). In a vacuum, Marquette has the better resume, but got way more many chances to improve it than MSU.

Cincinnati (19-5) (6-5) RPI 36 SoS 137
Non-con RPI/SoS 9/285
Road/neutral 5-4
2-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-5 vs. RPI Top 100

You have to try to have an SoS that low when you're in the Big East. For that reason, I can't take them seriously for now, but as always, there's chances in the Big East to enhance the resume.

Probable postseason teams
Rutgers (13-11) (4-8 )RPI 84 SoS 46
Providence (14-10) (3-8 )RPI 100 SoS 89

The bottom line: It's absurd to say a conference has 9 locks, but tell me which of those 9 isn't one. Go ahead, I dare you. I say the odds of Marquette missing are about equal to the odds of Cincinnati making, so we'll settle on 10 bids.

[MacabreMob]

Big Televen


Northwestern (14-9) (4-8 )RPI 79 SoS 81
Non/con RPI/SoS 11/295
Road/neutral 4-6
1-8 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-9 vs. RPI Top 100

If 4-10 isn't good enough for PSU, 2-9 sure as heck isn't for NU. Probably a loss away from sliding off the list.

Seems like every year (anymore), there is some extra love put out for Northwestern to FINALLY get to the NCAA. IMO, they are NOT even on the radar right now. Honestly - they need 4 wins in Indianapolis in March - otherwise... OUT.

[TheAsianSensation]

Colonial

Old Dominion (19-6) (10-4) RPI 34 SoS 70
Non-con RPI/SoS 69/28
Road/neutral 8-4
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Really, once you get past 10-4, doesn't this profile scream of an average-plus bubble team? I have a good feeling about ODU - if they can stay out of trouble in the CAA. They hold a few trump cards if they need them - Dayton, Richmond, Clemson, etc. I just can't see a team with that RPI and road record miss this year.

George Mason (20-5) (12-2) RPI 25 SoS 85
Non-con RPI/SoS 87/59
Road/neutral 8-5
1-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100

The CAA regular season title will have some weight this year, and if GMU can get home to 15-3, they're good to do, I think. Their non-con resume is more barren than the numbers suggest, as a couple of marginal losses (@NCSt, N-Wofford) are offset only by Harvard and @Duquesne. I suggest beating UNI just to be safe. Their only game with VCU is also coming up, so maybe a split of @VCU and @UNI, and maybe allowance for one bad loss, is what's required here.

VCU (20-6) (12-2) RPI 51 SoS 194
Non-con RPI/SoS 111/153
Road/neutral 9-6
2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100

Here's where it gets tricky, as the numbers are worse than GMU. The difference: questionable road losses at GSU and N'eastern, plus USF. UCLA is a nice win, but for the non-con, it's standing alone. In their next 2 games, they host ODU and GMU. Oh, what a sweep will do. Then it's @Wichita, then @Drexel and home James Madison. Yikes, what a gauntlet. This may make winning the CAA too much of a task. I feel strict saying 4-1 is required through this, but I'm not sure 3-2 is good enough.

Drexel (16-8 )(8-6) RPI 72 SoS 117
Non-con RPI/SoS 47/172
Road/neutral 7-6
2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100

Probably one loss away from falling all the way off the board. Only so much shelf life comes with a win at Louisville.

Probable postseason teams
James Madison (18-8 )(8-6) RPI 83 SoS 184
Hofstra (15-9) (10-4) RPI 95 SoS 129

The bottom line: Very optimistic for a 2nd bid for this league. Probably will be GMU and ODU, but the odds of one of them tripping up are pretty close to the odds of VCU emerging to solidify a bid, IMO.

[TheAsianSensation]

ACC

Duke (22-2) (9-1) RPI 8 SoS 64
Non-con RPI/SoS 14/133
Road/neutral 8-2
6-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-2 vs. RPI Top 100

Keep winning just in case, because that non-con SoS is weak. Historically weak for Duke.

North Carolina (17-6) (7-2) RPI 14 SoS 9
Non-con RPI/SoS 37/26
Road/neutral 6-6
3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Can't imagine UNC really missing at this point. That said, there's not as many quality wins as you think. 2nd place in the ACC will come with a solid enough collection of wins in the end, though. Their real problem is I can't really see them getting a protected seed with this resume.

Florida St (17-7) (7-3) RPI 48 SoS 87
Non-con RPi/SoS 49/243
Road/neutral 7-5
2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-6 vs. RPI Top 100

Think UNC's resume, only without the computer numbers to back it up. The trump card is the Duke win, so I think they're good to go too, but again, be careful. Keeping their head in the top 3 in the ACC should be sufficient for that purpose.

Boston College (15-9) (5-5) RPI 44 SoS 18
Non-con RPI/SoS 50/47
Road/neutral 5-6
1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-8 vs. RPI Top 100

We descend into bubble territory quickly in the ACC. Texas A&M is the only win of true value, and they lost to the 3 teams above them already. And Miami and Clemson currently hold trump cards over them. There's just too many losses to bubble teams on this schedule. Their next 2 - Maryland, @UNC - will solve this puzzle for us.

Virginia Tech (15-7) (5-4) RPI 64 SoS 102
Non-con RPI/SoS 60/170
Road/neutral 7-5
2-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Sigh. They have your typical bubble resume. What else is there to say? The non-con SoS is an improvement at least. This resume will go down to the wire in March.

Clemson (17-7) (6-4) RPI 63 SoS 116
Non-con RPI/SoS 42/256
Road/neutral 4-6
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100

These profiles in the ACC all look the same. Roughly split against other ACC bubble teams, not much OOC value, marginal computer numbers. Another one that will go to the wire in March.

Maryland (16-8 )(5-4) RPI 80 SoS 80
Non-con RPI/SoS 74/159
Road/neutral 4-5
0-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-8 vs. RPI Top 100

Get off my bubble, Gary Williams.

Miami (15-9) (4-6) RPI 61 SoS 54
Non-con RPI/SoS 34/111
Road/neutral 5-7
2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-9 vs. RPI Top 100

I'll pay attention to this so you don't have to.

Probable postseason teams
North Carolina St (12-11) (2-7) RPI 98 SoS 47
Virginia (12-11) (3-6) RPI 146 SoS 121

The bottom line: After the first 3 teams, odds dictate that 2 of the next 5 will probably get there.

[TheAsianSensation]

A-10

Xavier (17-6) (8-1) RPI 22 SoS 27
Non-con RPI/SoS 78/38
Road/neutral 6-5
3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 100

They'll be fine, it's all about jockeying for seed position for them. Anywhere from 4 to 8 is plausible, and they have a relatively soft schedule to work with. Of course, a couple untimely losses and we'll start panicking.

Temple (18-5) (8-2) RPI 37 SoS 131
Non-con RPI/SoS 90/90
Road/neutral 7-5
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Probably fine as well. Win over Georgetown is a big trump card. Expect them and Xavier to jockey for position and stay a tier above the bubble this year.

Richmond (19-6) (8-2) RPI 70 SoS 168
Non-con RPI/SoS 101/213
Road/neutral 10-3
1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Now we enter the bubble. And boy, are these bad computer numbers. An A-10 regular season title would go a long way here. So will having the N-Purdue win hold up. And with a couple of marginal losses already, I'd suggest stop doing that ASAP. Their fate is yet to be decided.

Duquesne (15-6) (8-1) RPI 76 SoS 154
Non-con RPI/SoS 155/150
Road/neutral 6-4
1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Still don't like paying attention to them. 3 Top 150 wins! THREE! This is not a good resume, and it's completely held afloat by that 8-1 at the top. This is not a tournament team.

Rhode Island (15-9) (6-4) RPI 73 SoS 90
Non-con RPI/SoS 91/103
Road/neutral 6-7
1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-5 vs. RPI Top 100

If I'm forced to pay attention to Duquesne, I get to pay attention to URI too. Not much here, though, and their final 6 is very soft.

Dayton (17-8 )(5-5) RPI 55 SoS 73
Non-con RPI/SoS 65/57
Road/neutral 4-6
1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI Top 100

Longshot at this point, but they at least have home opportunites to add quality wins down the stretch, so we'll pay attention.

Probable postseason teams
Massachusetts (12-9) (5-4) RPI 112 SoS 101
St Bonaventure (12-10) (4-5) RPI 102 SoS 91
George Washington (12-12) (5-5) RPI 182 SoS 196

The bottom line: I'm settling on 3 bids here. Richmond in, Duquesne waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out.

[LittleBrave]

Missouri St (19-6) (11-3) RPI 50 SoS 141
Non-con RPI/SoS 73/228
Road/neutral 6-5
0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Some clues to MSU's problems are in the non-conference numbers. Their only RPI Top 150 win out of conference is Pacific. They lost on the road to the Indiana schools, which negates their big run through the @WSU-@UNI-@CU gauntlet. Whiffed on their 3 biggest opportunities (@UT, @OSU, @Tulsa). I don't want to call @Valpo a must-win, but....it's a must win. They need to lean on the value of a regular-season MVC title if they get it.

If MSU had won any 3 of those games you mentioned above, they'd have a happier picture right now.
I think they have a chance if they win their remaining games before Arch Madness (meaning they'd win the Valley outright) and then have a strong run in the tourney, not losing pathetically like ISU (red) 3 seasons ago, and CU did a couple seasons ago. It's a tall task, but doable.

Wichita needs to do the same - their biggest games are the B-busters game (vs. VCU) and the last Valley game (@ Missouri St.).

UNI is just about toast, but win out and they're back in At-Large talk (since their non-conf. resume is the best in the Valley by far)

Basically another loss by ANY of these teams will severely hurt their chances, if not pull them out of At-Large talk.

This weekend's Wichita-UNI game looms large.

[TheAsianSensation]

Big 12

Kansas (23-1) (8-1) RPI 1 SoS 11
Non-con RPI/SoS 3/41
Road/neutral 10-0
6-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 14-1 vs. RPI Top 100

1 line. Let's move on.

Texas (21-3) (9-0) RPI 9 SoS 23
Non-con RPI/SoS 29/88
Road/neutral 8-1
8-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 100

1 line. Let's move on. Texas > Kansas for current seeding purposes based on head-to-head.

Texas A&M (17-5) (5-4) RPI 27 SoS 44
Non-con RPI/SoS 8/219
Road/neutral 6-3
5-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Not a lock yet - locks don't lose to Nebraska. 2 of the league losses are a sweep by Texas, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. 1/2 game out of 3rd in the Big 12, finishing 3rd in the league will be plenty enough this year.

Missouri (17-6) (4-5) RPI 28 SoS 68
Non-con RPI/SoS 1/265
Road/neutral 4-6
4-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-6 vs. RPI Top 100

The problem is they're losing all their toughest road games. 3 of the 5 league losses are to the three teams listed above, so no real crime there, but you have to get one eventually. I feel like they don't need much more than 9-7 in the Big 12 to get home free, but that's no lock.

Baylor (16-7) (6-4) RPI 62 SoS 76
Non-con RPI/SoS 52/235
Road/neutral 3-6
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Absolutely NOTHING in this resume OOC, so that's a problem. And they have Texas twice, @Missouri, and A&M yet to come, so let's not get carried away with 6-4 yet. But at least they're in position to control their own destiny. This resume is yet to be written.

Kansas St (15-8 )(4-5) RPI 33 SoS 12
Non-con RPI/SoS 25/49
Road/neutral 4-6
0-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-8 vs. RPI Top 100

Profile looks deceivingly good until you get to the bottom line. 0-7 is bad; having 7 chances and whiffing every single time is catastrophic. One game apiece left against Kansas, Texas, and Missou - better get 2 of 3. But if they do, their pocket collection of wins from 51-100 will have some value.

Oklahoma St (16-7) (4-5) RPI 43 SoS 63
Non-con RPI/SoS 12/187
Road/neutral 5-6
3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-6 vs. RPI Top 100

They're in better shape than most realize (trump card wins over Missouri St, Alabama, and Kansas St among them), but @Texas and @Kansas down the stretch. Don't think they can get to .500 in the Big 12, and that's a stain this year. Too many road losses in conference (Colorado, Texas Tech, Baylor) already.

Colorado (14-10) (4-6) RPI 96 SoS 88
Non-con RPI/SoS 24/316
Road/neutral 3-8
4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-8 vs. RPI Top 100

That 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50 is single-handidly keeping them on this list.

Potential postseason teams
Nebraska (15-8 )(3-6) RPI 90 SoS 94
Oklahoma (12-10) (4-5) RPI 107 SoS 60

The bottom line: 4 locks, and you have to figure a 5th team will emerge from somewhere. The key is the middle of the standings. How many teams can stratch and claw to .500? How many quality wins will Kansas and Texas allow?

[TheAsianSensation]

$EC

Florida (19-5) (8-2) RPI 11 SoS 6
Non-con RPI/SoS 56/9
Road/neutral 8-2
7-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-2 vs. RPI Top 100

3 losses outside the top 100 is the difference between the 2 line and the 4 line. It's a shame, too, because they have decent depth in their quality win list.

Kentucky (17-6) (5-4) RPI 10 SoS 14
Non-con RPI/SoS 15/15
Road/neutral 6-6
5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-6 vs. RPI Top 100

The road is their weakness, and the NCAA usually punishes accordingly. The RPI/SoS won't miss the tournament, but don't be surprised if they are a seed or two lower than you expected them to be.

Vanderbilt (17-6) (5-4) RPI 18 SoS 17
Non-con RPI/SoS 19/37
Road/neutral 4-5
3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Should be safe for the tournament as well. Just enough quality wins to avoid such trouble, not enough actual signature wins to contend for a protected seed. Open and shut case.

Tennessee (15-9) (5-4) RPI 23 SoS 1
Non-con RPI/SoS 76/1
Road/neutral 6-4
6-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-7 vs. RPI Top 100

#1 SoS, 6 Top 50 wins...they're in. Don't sweat the 9 losses - we've seen the NCAA put in a lot worse for teams with the #1 SoS. Also, don't attempt to try to figure out their resume. 4 home losses outside the top 50, neutral wins over Pitt and Nova, 2 wins against Belmont, it's just a mess.

Georgia (16-7) (5-4) RPI 45 SoS 45
Non-con RPI/SoS 45/124
Road/neutral 6-4
2-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-7 vs. RPI Top 100

Finally a bubble candidate in the SEC. No bad losses, which is good news, but 2-7 isn't good news (and 1 of the 2 is UAB). They may be losing a couple too many swing games - when you get ND, Temple, Xavier, Vandy, Florida, Tennessee, and UK, you don't have to win 4 of them, but 2 would be nice. With Tennesee, Florida, Vandy still on the sked, getting 2 of 3 is the path to success. This will go down to selection Sunday.

Alabama (15-8 )(7-2) RPI 93 SoS 147
Non-con RPI/SoS 123/271
Road/neutral 3-8
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Yuck. Unfortunately, those 2 Top 100 wins are notables - Kentucky, @Tennessee. But those and that 7-2 mark is the only reason they're on the board to begin with. They need to continue winning - they won't survive 11-5 considering how bad the SEC West is. Remember, that's 10 games against the SEC West and 6 against the SEC East. 11-5 is fool's gold.

Mississippi (16-8 )(4-5) RPI 58 SoS 43
Non-con RPI/SoS 55/84
Road/neutral 6-4
2-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100

Whatever. They're out of quality win opportunites against the SEC West, but that also means 11-5 in the SEC is in play for them.

Probable postseason teams
South Carolina (13-9) (4-5) RPI 103 SoS 104
Arkansas (14-9) (4-6) RPI 119 SoS 107
Mississippi St (13-10) (5-4) RPI 130 SoS 93

The bottom line: They'll get the first 4 in, and probably one of Georgia and Alabama. Holy crap, the SEC West is bad. 5 bids total.

[TheAsianSensation]

Mountain West

Brigham Young (22-2) (9-1) RPI 2 SoS 8
Non-con RPI/SoS 21/10
Road/neutral 13-2
7-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 100

13 R/N wins! The committee gobbles up stuff like that. The only issue is probably a lack of a true bonafine signature win (except for SDSU). I'm willing to bet BYU could get to the 2 line by winning out, although I bet they end up at 3, followed by massive outrage from the general public wondering how BYU got so high.

San Diego St (22-1) (9-1) RPI 6 SoS 52
Non-con RPI/SoS 22/55
Road/neutral 12-1
3-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-1 vs. RPI Top 100

12 R/N wins! You know what the committee thinks of that. However, do note compared to BYU, the lack of quality opponent opportunites. SDSU will lose any head-to-head comparison with BYU without 2 more wins against them. That might eventually slide SDSU down near the 4 line.

UNLV (18-6) (6-4) RPI 24 SoS 35
Non-con RPI/SoS 33/83
Road/neutral 9-3
2-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100

I'm of the firm belief that any team that separates for 3rd place in the MWC will make the field of 68. UNLV has the best ancillary resume, by far. They at least have a win over Wisconsin they can lead hard on, although they missed most of their other chances. @CSU and @UNM are coming down the pipeline, so a split of those and no bad losses probably gets them in.

Colorado St (15-7) (6-3) RPI 42 SoS 40
Non-con RPI/SoS 71/61
Road/neutral 8-4
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Shockingly good computer numbers are keeping them right around the bubble. But there's really no depth to this resume. @UNLV is by far the best win, and their last 2 shots at BYU/SDSU are road shots. Win one of those however, and now we're talking. I just don't think CSU can hang on, though.

New Mexico (16-7) (5-4) RPI 67 SoS 140
Non-con RPI/SoS 41/254
Road/neutral 5-6
2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100

They're hanging on to the periphery of the bubble. Like CSU, road tilts at SDSU and BYU have yet to ensue, so get a split and we'll talk. Probably a couple too many losses (notably road losses at Wyoming, Utah, and Cal) to get away with losing both those big roadies.

Probable postseason teams
Air Force (12-9) (4-6) RPI 89 SoS 77

The bottom line: 3 teams seems fair, no?

[TheAsianSensation]

Pac-Fail

Arizona (20-4) (9-2) RPI 16 SoS 59
Non-con RPI/SoS 48/68
Road/neutral 7-4
1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100

Smells like the resume of a solid tourney team but not a protected seed team. There's nothing really to get excited about here outside of leading a solid mid-major conference. Really, it's George Mason-like. Except there's fewer bad losses (although the one bad one is a catastrophic one: Oregon St). Since the Pac 10 doesn't offer much to the resume, keep winning just in case.

Washington (16-7) (8-4) RPI 41 SoS 69
Non-con RPI/SoS 58/71
Road/neutral 4-7
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Profile is rather average for a "power conference" team. The home win over Arizona is the lynchpin of the resume for now. The R/N record is a cause for concern considering what caliber of team has beaten them (Wazzu, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon St among them). They've got to cut out losing to inferior teams. Life would be a lot easier. The good news is they're winning everything at home, and with just 2 roadies left in the Pac 10, continuing that trend should be enough. But don't test me.

UCLA (17-7) (8-3) RPI 38 SoS 30
Non-con RPI/SoS 107/30
Road/neutral 4-5
2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-6 vs. RPI Top 100

Well, N-BYU is a win that no team above can even approach, so they're one step ahead. And St John's probably qualifies too. Those 2 wins means staying up near the Pac 10 lead should be enough, but who knows with this league. One game left with UW and UA, so we'll raise some flags if they lose both.

Washington St (16-8 )(6-6) RPI 77 SoS 11
Non-con RPI/SoS 60/168
Road/neutral 7-5
1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI Top 100

Get off of my bubble. One-time quality wins over Gonzaga and Baylor, the wins that got WSU on the bubble to begin with, have disintegrated into little value.

USC (13-11) (5-6) RPI 86 SoS 42
Non-con RPI/SoS 100/54
Road/neutral 3-8
3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI Top 100

We're keeping them on for a single reason: wins over Texas and @Tennessee have value. If they beat Arizona and @Washington later in the season, they have a 3-3 split against the top 3 of the Pac-10. That's tough to ignore. Of course, 5 losses outside the RPI Top 100 is tough to ignore too.

Probable postseason teams
California (13-11) (6-6) RPI 64 SoS 7 (1-10 vs. RPI Top 50. ouch. Even just 3-8 and they're on bubble watch)
Stanford (13-10) (6-6) RPI 121 SoS 105

The bottom line: We'll let them have 3 this year. Still really bad. But not quite as bad as last year.

[TheAsianSensation]

CUSA

UTEP (17-5) (6-2) RPI 60 SoS 153
Non-con RPI/SoS 75/201
Road/neutral 5-4
0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100

When Michigan is your signature win, you have problems. Still, they lead CUSA, and that has theoretical value. They also haven't played Memphis or Southern Miss yet, so we'll see. This profile needs a minor miracle.

Memphis (18-6) (6-3) RPI 40 SoS 57
Non-con RPI/SoS 44/127
Road/neutral 5-4
2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI Top 100

At gunpoint, this is probably the best CUSA resume. At least there's two road conference wins worth pointing at (SMU, UAB) and a small collection of top 100 wins other CUSA teams can't touch. This team can lock a bid with a solo CUSA title, but good luck with that.

UAB (17-6) (7-3) RPI 32 SoS 53
Non-con RPI/SoS 40/145
Road/neutral 7-4
0-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100

VCU is the signature win (ruh roh). Despite the fancy computer numbers (32/53), the rest of the profile has no meat and is therefore in trouble. Still have to go @SMU and @Memphis, so 2 wins there would go a loooong way.

Southern Miss (16-5) (7-3) RPI 46 SoS 124
Non-con RPI/SoS 38/274
Road/neutral 7-4
1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 100

That 274 number is big trouble for USM, and will be their undoing unless they make major hay down the stretch. Having a tough time taking them seriously.

Probable postseason teams
Southern Methodist (12-8 )(6-3) RPI 195 SoS 256 (yikes!)
Marshall (13-9) (3-6) RPI 74 SoS 48
Tulsa (13-10) (6-3) RPI 88 SoS 31
Central Florida (13-8 )(1-8 )RPI 87 SoS 62
East Carolina (10-10) (5-4) RPI 124 SoS 67

The bottom line: Well, I guess if you figure the top 4 teams each have a 1 in 4 shot at an at-large bid, one of the 4 will get there.

[TheAsianSensation]

Horizon

Cleveland St (19-5) (10-4) RPI 39 SoS 132
Non-con RPI/SoS 36/149
Road/neutral 8-4
0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Absolutely zero heft on this resume. Just a couple too many road losses. Just short. But win at Old Dominion and win the Horizon, and everything can change, though.

Valparaiso (16-7) (10-3) RPI 57 SoS 98
Non-con RPI/SoS 95/107
Road/neutral 9-5
2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Probably too much damage done - split with both CSU and Butler. Needs to beat Missouri St and run out the rest of the Horizon - profile would look much better in that case. This isn't an impossible mission yet.

Butler (16-9) (9-5) RPI 47 SoS 34
Non-con RPI/SoS 85/12
Road/neutral 7-7
3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-5 vs. RPI Top 100

3 top 50 wins will be more than other bubble teams, but the damage has been done already. Shame.

Probable postseason teams
Wright St (15-10) (10-5) RPI 106 SoS 164
Milwaukee (14-11) (9-5) RPI 113 SoS 99
Detroit (13-13) (8-7) RPI 157 SoS 161

The bottom line: Shame that none of the teams in here could get over the hump into serious at-large consideration.

WCC

St Mary's (19-4) (9-1) RPI 30 SoS 138
Non-con RPI/SoS 96/75
Road/neutral 8-4
1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100

Light resume, whiffing their 3 best games (BYU, @SDSU, @Vandy). But there's a St John's win closely behind, and dominating a decent league just may be enough this year. Needless to say, Utah St can make or break this resume. Best to win that one.

Gonzaga (15-9) (6-3) RPI 75 SoS 58
Non-con RPI/SoS 152/22
Road/neutral 5-7
2-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-7 vs. RPI Top 100

Too many scars suffered in the non-con to recover. There ARE wins over Xavier, Okla St, Maruqette, and Baylor hidden in this resume, so I won't say it's impossible. Needless to say, @St Mary's is mandatory for that scenario to bear fruit.

Probable postseason teams
San Francisco (11-11) (7-2) RPI 126 SoS 79
Portland (17-8 )(4-5) RPI 82 SoS 127
Santa Clara (13-11) (5-4) RPI 162 SoS 160

The bottom line: Gonzaga isn't probably going to get there for the at-large.

WAC

Utah St (22-3) (11-1) RPI 29 SoS 176
Non-con RPI/SoS 68/183
Road/neutral 8-3
0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 0-2 vs. RPI Top 100.

Yikes, look at that bottom line. The WAC isn't helping by taking a collective dive this year. The 2 losses are @Georgetown and @BYU - how much can you exactly penalize for that? Not a lot. St Mary's is going to have such a ridiculously huge impact on the resume. Please don't lose to anyone else, because any other loss makes this profile deteriorate RAPIDLY.

Probable postseason teams
Idaho (13-10) (7-5) RPI 161 SoS 193
(New Mexico St is 2nd solo in the WAC and has an overall losing record. Nevada is T-3 and has an overall losing record. Everyone else is .500 or below in conference. What the heck is this?

The bottom line: What happened to the WAC this year?!?!?!?

[TheAsianSensation]

Ivy
Harvard (14-4) (5-1) RPI 52 SoS 203
Non-con RPI/SoS 92/185
Road/neutral 6-4
1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100

An interesting case is developing. Those aren't horrible numbers for a low-major school, and they actually have a top 50 road win (BC) on the board along with Colorado. The 4 top 100 losses are all road losses. This isn't impossible. Right now they're down 1/2 game to Princeton in the standings - if they beat them at home and both teams run the Ivy table, that sets up a one-game playoff. If Harvard loses that...they post 22-5 and probably a top 50 RPI, with no losses outside the RPI top 60. Stay tuned.

Princeton (16-4) (5-0) RPI 53 SoS 201
Non-con RPI/SoS 88/229
Road/neutral 7-4
0-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 100

Those 4 wins aren't nearly as good as Harvard's 2, but it's at least worth noting Pricneton's computer numbers, which on the surface are surprisingly sturdy.

The bottom line: Let's not forget about Harvard.

America East
Vermont (20-5) (11-2) RPI 81 SoS 240 - Their profile has a bit of a Utah St vibe, but it's not as good. If the RPI was down in the 60s, I'd give them a shot. As is, 0-2 vs. RPI Top 100 is all you need to know.

Probable postseason teams
Boston (13-13) (8-4) RPI 179 SoS 197
Maine (13-10) (8-4) RPI 191 SoS 277

Atlantic Sun
Belmont (22-4) (14-1) RPI 69 SoS 284 - Lost twice to Tennessee, once to vandy, nothing else in the RPI Top 100. Another mini-Utah St vibe. I give them 1% chance.

Probable postseason teams
East Tennessee St (16-9) (12-3) RPI 117 SoS 218
Lipscomb (14-10) (10-6) RPI 108 SoS 173
Jacksonville (15-7) (10-4) RPI 120 SoS 238 - 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50!

Big South
Coastal Carolina (19-2) (14-0) RPI 66 SoS 297 - Worth a shoutout for that overall record, but 0-2 vs. RPI Top 100 ends this discussion.

Probable postseason teams
Liberty (15-8 )(12-2) RPI 131 SoS 252