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The Big East gets 9, at the most. Maybe "only" 8. The "experts" say 10 to 12 bids every year, but there is enough parity in the middle that a few teams will play their way out of the tournament before the end of the season.
I can see the other BCS teams starting to complain about the same thing we have for years, but this time I see the NCAA listening to them. Big East breakup on the horizon when the other big boys start to not like what's going on here with all of the bids.
I am pretty sure the Big East is preparing for a football breakoff regardless.
ACC - only 6 teams above .500, and 3 of those (Clemson, Va Tech, Maryland) have some embarassing losses and are on the bubble
Big East - a full dozen teams above .500, but five of those are definitely bubble teams like Marquette (15-9, 6-5) & they're only above .500 because DePaul, USF, and Providence are absorbing all the losses
Big Ten - only four teams above .500, the rest (like Michigan State at 14-10, 6-6 & Minn, Penn State at 5-7 are on the outside)
Big 12 - only four teams above .500
SEC - only 3 or 4 teams are locks, the rest are all pretty weak bubble teams (Georgia, Mississippi St.)
Pac 10 - only 3 teams look even close to getting bids - Arizona, then maybe Washington & UCLA
So -- last year teams 32 qualified from these six power conferences, and 36 the year before -- but possibly only 26 or 28 look to be deserving right now.
BUT -- as I have said again and again -- never underestimate the generosity of the selection Committe when it comes to BCS schools' at large bids.
I predict they will get at least 32 this year despite the weakness in many of the top conferences.
BTW -- speaking of DePaul....they just passed a milestone that goes back THREE YEARS!!!
Dating back to 2/09/08 -- DePaul has won only ONE of their last 51 Big East Conference games.
they are 1-50 in that span with their only conference win since their 2/09/08 win over USF, being a very narrow 51-50 home win over Marquette on 1/20/10.
More proof the mid-level teams in the power conferences do NOT deserve at large bids..
Maryland loses again today to go to 5-5 in the ACC
Clemson drops to 6-5 - same as Boston College
seems only 3 teams in the ACC really deserve a bid...but whattya wanna bet at 5 or 6 get one!
Kentucky loses to Vandy - they are now 5-5 in the SEC
Anyone wanna bet that they'll get a bid even if they are under .500 in the mediocre SEC??
Dayton also loses and drops to 5-6 in the A-10 and the Flyers fans are melting down...they thought they had a lock on an NCAA bid with their 12-3 non-conference record!
More proof the mid-level teams in the power conferences do NOT deserve at large bids..
Maryland loses again today to go to 5-5 in the ACC
Clemson drops to 6-5 - same as Boston College
seems only 3 teams in the ACC really deserve a bid...but whattya wanna bet at 5 or 6 get one!
Kentucky loses to Vandy - they are now 5-5 in the SEC
Anyone wanna bet that they'll get a bid even if they are under .500 in the mediocre SEC??
Dayton also loses and drops to 5-6 in the A-10 and the Flyers fans are melting down...they thought they had a lock on an NCAA bid with their 12-3 nonconference record!
Great analysis of the at-large bids tornado! If the "big boys" don't end up with the usual number of bids they get, which mid-major teams will get bids? Remember, this is a year where some traditional mid-major powers are also down. Butler, Gonzaga and Memphis will most likely need to win their conference tournaments to get in. Of course that could lead to multiple bids from each conference if they do, because teams like St. Mary's and UTEP have good cases for bids. If there are a lot of mid-major upsets, that should take care of any extra bids floating around.
But I believe that two mid-major conferences outside of the A-10 will benefit the most this year. Look for the MWC to get four bids if a lot of the big boys are left out. And look out for the Colonial Athletic Conference to get two, maybe even three bids if the upsets are kept to a minimum.
With the big upset of SIU over WSU this week, the Valley will need a whole lot of luck to get a second bid, but keep in mind the three extra bids to the Big Dance this year. This will give some teams bids that probably have no business earning one!
Maryland has no kind of resume whatsoever. If Gary Williams gets a bid this year I give you all the license to riot about it.
The SEC is interesting - they're weak overall, but the East division is very stacked compared to the West. Florida, UK, UT, Georgia, Vandy, they're all playing each other twice, so 9-7 in the SEC East is going to stronger for the resume than 11-5 in the SEC West.
CAA will probably get 2 teams. ODU has a much better resume than people think.
Maryland has no kind of resume whatsoever. If Gary Williams gets a bid this year I give you all the license to riot about it.
....
as it should be but... apparently not according to the talking heads....
did anyone watch last night as UNC beat Maryland to send the Terps to 18-11 & 7-7 in the ACC and a 6-7th place tie in the ACC
Their RPI is 90 and their SOS is 75...but we were told that their resume is solid and that it would be a shame if they did not get a bid --
I don't know that they would but would it actually surprise anyone if they do?? Their final two games are easily winnable so they'll finish with an RPI of maybe 70 or so......
This happens every year ... some team in a BCS conference getting in despite an RPI in the 60-70's...
In the past few years Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Minnesota, and even Seton Hall (2006) have all gotten at-large bids with RPI's over 60!
In fact - two seasons ago -- Maryland got an at-large bid despite a 7-9 record in the ACC
So the Big East Conference appears poised to send a record 11 teams to the NCAA tournament.
Should any team that finishes 10th or 11th in a 16-team conference expect to get an AT LARGE bid??
the borderline teams...
Marquette - 14 losses, RPI 62, loss to Seton Hall, 5-5 in last 10 games, 11-11 in last 22 games
Villanova - RPI 37 but lost last five games and 7 of the last 9..and 10 of last 15 -- knocked out in 1st game of Big East Tourney to USF - not sure how their RPI stays so high!
Cincinnati - RPI 37, SOS 76, 8-10 in last 18 games
all these guys' RPI was way worse than Barry Hinson's when they snubbed him...
If the conference is good enough, sure their 11th place team can go.
Villanova is the dicey one the way they finished. But the conference is just simply so good this year, head and shoulders above every other conference.
Or, to put it another way: I can think of marginal ACC or Big 10 schools that people would be more justified getting mad at than the 11th place Big East team.
So the Big East Conference appears poised to send a record 11 teams to the NCAA tournament.
Should any team that finishes 10th or 11th in a 16-team conference expect to get an AT LARGE bid??
the borderline teams...
Marquette - 14 losses, RPI 62, loss to Seton Hall, 5-5 in last 10 games, 11-11 in last 22 games
Villanova - RPI 37 but lost last five games and 7 of the last 9..and 10 of last 15 -- knocked out in 1st game of Big East Tourney to USF - not sure how their RPI stays so high!
Cincinnati - RPI 37, SOS 76, 8-10 in last 18 games
all these guys' RPI was way worse than Barry Hinson's when they snubbed him...
I predict that one of these three does not get in. Well, in reality they probably all do get in, so let me rephrase that and say it would not be surprising if one of these teams get snubbed, thereby opening a spot up for a mid-major team some where.
The mid majors aren't going to benefit in any way from what has happened the past couple days. Alabama, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Colorado, USC, and possibly Penn State have all quite possibly played their way in. It's looking bleaker by the minute for teams like Missouri State and UAB.
The mid majors aren't going to benefit in any way from what has happened the past couple days. Alabama, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Colorado, USC, and possibly Penn State have all quite possibly played their way in. It's looking bleaker by the minute for teams like Missouri State and UAB.
The team no one's worrying about that people should start doing is St Mary's. They're not in the clear.
Yah not lookin to good for Illinois now. Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State all took care of business today. 3 of the 4 teams tied at 9-9 in the Big Ten with Illinois.
Michigan State slaughtered #9 Purdue and Penn State takes out #13 Wisconsin in 1 of the worst combined shooting performances i've seen in quite some time.
For an outsider looking in, I would say either Purdue or Wisconsin slacked off so that the Big Ten could get another team in the tourney since Michigan had beat Illinois earlier in the day. Lets see if Ohio State slacks off tomorrow, it will get interesting then.
On a side note, the 9th seed 20-12 (7-9) Dayton takes out #1 seed 24-6 (15-1) Xavier by 1 point after knocking down 2 free throws with 5 seconds left.
Also in the Atlantic 10, the 12th seed 10-21 (4-12) St. Josephs knocked off 4th seed 18-11 (10-6) Duquesne. St. Josephs will play Dayton and 1 of those teams will have the chance to pull off the upset over for sure big dance teams of #2 seed Temple or #3 seed Richmond. Could throw a real whack in things if they do manage the championship upset, especially if Richmond gets to the champ game.
It's looking a lot worse for Missouri State after a couple upsets yesterday bumped a couple likely NCAA teams into the at-large category, and moved a couple teams that were out of the picture back onto the bubble.
Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology as of Saturday morning-
After another wild day of conference tournament action, what has the Bracketologist concocted in his laboratory?Did Notre Dame's overtime loss to Louisville knock the Fighting Irish off the No.
Missouri State was one of his "First Four Out" as of Friday.
This link was still showing the March 11 bracket projections-
Visit ESPN for live scores, highlights and sports news. Stream exclusive games on ESPN+ and play fantasy sports.
but now as of this morning (March 12) Lunardi has moved Memphis up into the "First Four Out", and bumped Missouri State down into the "Next Out".
It is possible they could fall even farther if any more upsets occur today and tomorrow.
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