Latest realtimerpi Valley standings

[Bravesfan]

The current realtimerpi.com rankings have the Valley "deservedly" ranked at #12. However, they still do show two NCAA Tournament worthy teams with MSU and WSU both ranked in the top 50. So hopefully those two teams win the games they need to in order for the Valley to field two at-large worthy teams.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html

Then again, tonight I don't care as I hope Bradley messes up MSU's RPI.

[tornado]

Just a thought -- see if anyone really differs.........

Missouri State is 7-0, 1st in MVC, 15-3 overall, but SOS 129 and no real quality non-conference wins, the best being a win over 9-8 Tulsa whose RPI is 114.

Wichita State is 6-1, 2nd in MVC, 14-3 overall, SOS 94, best quality win would be over Tulsa or RPI 132 Virginia.

Indiana State is 6-1, 2nd in MVC, 10-7 overall, but their RPI is 111, and their best non-conference win is over 8-12 Oral Roberts whose RPI is 163!

honestly, nobody else in the Valley is even in this discussion.....


so who would possibly be deserving of an AT LARGE bid should they NOT get the auto-bid on March 13?
Do you know how often a team gets an at large bid with an RPI over 40 and a SOS over 100, or if they have NO wins over any team in the TOP 100 RPI?

[electricmayhem]

In a perfect at-large world, MSU goes 18-0, wins the BB and loses to anyone else in the Arch Madness finals. They would be 28-4 at that point, and I can't see the committee leaving a 28-win team out... although it is MSU...

Something tells me that the team with the highest win total left out of the dance this year will be either MSU or WSU.

[Bravesfan]

Just a thought -- see if anyone really differs.........

Missouri State is 7-0, 1st in MVC, 15-3 overall, but SOS 129 and no real quality non-conference wins, the best being a win over 9-8 Tulsa whose RPI is 114.

Wichita State is 6-1, 2nd in MVC, 14-3 overall, SOS 94, best quality win would be over Tulsa or RPI 132 Virginia.

Indiana State is 6-1, 2nd in MVC, 10-7 overall, but their RPI is 111, and their best non-conference win is over 8-12 Oral Roberts whose RPI is 163!

honestly, nobody else in the Valley is even in this discussion.....


so who would possibly be deserving of an AT LARGE bid should they NOT get the auto-bid on March 13?
Do you know how often a team gets an at large bid with an RPI over 40 and a SOS over 100, or if they have NO wins over any team in the TOP 100 RPI?

ISU blue does not figure in the discussion at the moment since they have too many losses and have yet to play WSU and MSU. However, if WSU and MSU each win 15+ Valley games while splitting against each other (meaning WSU must win at MSU later this season), I could still see one of them possibly earning an at-large bid. Not likely, but possible. And there are three reasons this could happen.

First, we have seen the NCAA Tournament committee choose strong mid-major teams in the past that did not have very good quality wins. Second, both teams are now ranked in the top 40 on both the ESPN and AP polls, once again garnering notice from the national media. And finally, the slightly expanded field this year gives hope for a second bid from a non-BCS conference or two who would normally not get receive one under the old 65 team format.

I agree with you tornado that it's probably less than a 50% chance that the Valley gets a second bid unless these two teams meet in the finals and one loses by two points. But I have seen the committee do some strange things in the past, so you just never know.

[bugregshu]

Missouri State finishes 18-0, 1 seed

Wichita State finishes 17-1, 2 seed

Indiana State finishes 12-6, 4 seed

Everyone wins their bracketbuster

4 Indiana State knocks off 1 Missouri State in STL

4 Indiana State knocks off 2 Wichita State in the finals

Missouri State finishes 28-4

Wichita State finishes 29-4

Indiana State finishes 21-12

All 3 teams make the NCAA tournament

[electricmayhem]

The committee would leave MSU out.

[tornado]

wow -- I don't know what's more improbable...both scenarios are way less likely than 50-50!

A) the scenario you guys are all assuming where MSU and WSU both basically run the table

or

B) that the NCAA actually would take a 21-12, 3rd place team from a horribly weak MVC when their best non-conference win was against a sub-.500 ORU!!

I stand by the thought that it's almost a given the MVC is one-bid, and also maybe no better than a 8 or 9 seed then one and done.

[TheAsianSensation]

Let's discard the Indiana St pipe dream.

We'll have to see on the other 2. BB is a game-changer, so we won't know much until we know their opponents. I think 50-50 is a fair estimate of chances of a 2-bid league at this point.

[LittleBrave]

Missouri State finishes 18-0, 1 seed

Wichita State finishes 17-1, 2 seed

Everyone wins their bracketbuster

Missouri State finishes 28-4

Wichita State finishes 29-4

All 3 teams make the NCAA tournament

The conference records for MSU & WSU couldn't be such; if Missouri State knocks off WSU again, the Shockers would be 16-2. Conversely, if WSU returns the favor to the Bears, Missouri state could be 17-1 and the Shockers could be 17-1. This would still give both teams a shot at an At-Large Bid, provided both make it to the Championship game and somebody wins by 1 in 5 overtimes!!!

[PeoriaLou]

The committee would leave MSU out.

Not this year.... If they finish with 4 or 5 losses, I believe they're in as in at-large. Biggest thing going for them is Cuonzo Martin. If they continue to win, more press coverage will come for the former Purdue star and cancer survivor, who turned MSU's program around in less than 3 years. Good publicity and a good story certainly helps.....

[squirrelgotdead]

Not this year.... If they finish with 4 or 5 losses, I believe they're in as in at-large. Biggest thing going for them is Cuonzo Martin. If they continue to win, more press coverage will come for the former Purdue star and cancer survivor, who turned MSU's program around in less than 3 years. Good publicity and a good story certainly helps.....

Those things make for a nice story, but they will not and should not be used as an argument for them to get into the NCAA Tournament.

-However-the MVC is so bad this year, that WSU and MSU should both post gaudy numbers and put themselves into a two-bid situation for the Valley. However, neither one can absorb more than one bad Valley loss. And even one is playing with fire.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm putting the cutoff at 14.5-3.5 for conference record necessary to feel good about Selection Sunday.

[MacabreMob]

Let's face it - the best the MVC is gonna get from the NCAA this year is:

1 bid league

Seeded as a "play-in" team where the winner will then meet #4 seed UIUC.

[Bravesfan]

wow -- I don't know what's more improbable...both scenarios are way less likely than 50-50!

A) the scenario you guys are all assuming where MSU and WSU both basically run the table

or

B) that the NCAA actually would take a 21-12, 3rd place team from a horribly weak MVC when their best non-conference win was against a sub-.500 ORU!!

I stand by the thought that it's almost a given the MVC is one-bid, and also maybe no better than a 8 or 9 seed then one and done.

Actually that scenario would have Indiana St. winning the Valley Tournament. I don't think he meant that ISU gets an at-large bid. NO one would have them receiving an at-large bid unless they finish first in the Valley, meaning they would probably at least have to split against MSU and WSU, which would be their best wins of the year.

[Bravesfan]

Those things make for a nice story, but they will not and should not be used as an argument for them to get into the NCAA Tournament.

-However-the MVC is so bad this year, that WSU and MSU should both post gaudy numbers and put themselves into a two-bid situation for the Valley. However, neither one can absorb more than one bad Valley loss. And even one is playing with fire.

I have to agree, because the Valley did have three straight two bid seasons from 1994 to 1996 when the Valley was ranked 12th to 15th. Granted, the at-large bid teams those three years, Tulsa twice and Bradley in 1996 had better non-conference wins, but still WSU and MSU have both shown that they can make a case for the tournament this year. This once again supports the theory that teams earn bids, not conferences.