C/S Hoops Report (Sun Times) Top 30 1/10/11

[45otseoj]

http://blogs.suntimes.com/hoopsreport/2011/01/heralded_2011_down_to_final_tw.html

[tornado]

Funny -- but when they went head to head Bielfeldt vs. Egwu -- the entire state saw who was easily the better player -- and not only a little bit better -- but enormously better ...yet Egwu is still ranked 7th compared to Max barely cracking the Top 30!

Has Anthony Davis' Chicago Perspectives team won any games yet??
And aren't these the same guys who ranked Kyle Rowley as the top senior and top prospect in the state a couple years ago?
They also had (in 2008 ) Stan Simpson several spots higher than John Shurna and in 2007 had Koshwal ahead of Evan Turner.

[cpacmel]

Funny -- but when they went head to head Bielfeldt vs. Egwu -- the entire state saw who was easily the better player -- and not only a little bit better -- but enormously better ...yet Egwu is still ranked 7th compared to Max barely cracking the Top 30!

Oh Tornado when will you ever learn? Are you really going to use one game as the barometer? I go back to my Aaron Carter example. Is he better than Andrew Warren? Carter doubled Warren's scoring in their last game (14 to 7). Now who in their right mind is ever going to think that Carter is a better player than Warren? Not trying to take away from Max B here either.

Has Anthony Davis' Chicago Perspectives team won any games yet??
And aren't these the same guys who ranked Kyle Rowley as the top senior and top prospect in the state a couple years ago?
They also had (in 2008 ) Stan Simpson several spots higher than John Shurna and in 2007 had Koshwal ahead of Evan Turner.

Yes Davis team has won a few games, but not sure that matters when it comes to how good or bad Davis is as a player. He is only 1 guy. There are plenty of great players on bad teams.

And yes these guys have missed some in the past. We all do. Even you with your predictions on guys like Kyle Kuric. Or your predictions about Kanter and the NCAA.

[45otseoj]

Henrickson is rating the players as prospects.

Prospect: 1. Usually, prospects.
a. an apparent probability of advancement, success, profit, etc.
b. the outlook for the future: good business prospects.
2. anticipation; expectation; a looking forward.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/prospect

He is rating what he believes will be rather than what is.

Randle is an awesome player RIGHT NOW, and I believe he is college-ready.
Davis is still very raw, but his body, insticts and athletic ability make him a player with outrageus potential.

tornado, I'd like to see you come out with a Top 30, and we can compared how well your predictions come out.

[Da Coach]

I think what is lost a bit in this partisan debate is the point that Joe Henricksen has been ranking kids in Illinois for a number of years and his rankings are extremely biased toward a) Chicago kids over downstate kids, b) toward kids who have signed with Illinois and other Big Ten schools or high-majors c) and he mistakenly equates athleticism or HS scoring averages with true D1 potential.

Here is his 2010 rankings-

http://blogs.suntimes.com/hoopsreport/2009/04/illini_recruits_rule_2010_rank.html

Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard seem to be appropriately ranked #1 and #2, but then Big Ten kids Crandell Head, Lenzelle Smith, Ben Brust, and Anthony Johnson have not shown anything yet (all averaging around 1 ppg or less in very limited play) though I expect them to produce eventually. But then his rankings are loaded with kids who now appear greatly overrated like Karl Madison, Reggie Smith, Phillip Jackson, Alex Rossi, Jordan Threloff, Alex Dragicevich, Anthony Shoemaker, Isiah Jones, Levonte Dority, Tim Rustoven, Jarod Oldham, Brandon Spearman, and everyone on the list from #17 to #40.

Note that Walt Lemon did not even make Henricksen's top 40, but is producing and having a far better freshman year in college than more than half of the kids on that list will ever have. And there are other examples of kids he did not even rate in his top 40 who are doing better than most of those kids he did list. If I had more time I would dig up Henricksen's rankings from 2009, 2008, and earlier and the point will be even more clear how poorly his rankings have correlated with any college success.

[Da Coach]

OK, here is Joe Henricksen's ranking for 2009, and it is loaded with kids who have been total busts in college-

http://blogs.suntimes.com/hoopsreport/2009/04/final_look_at_the_class_of_200.html#comments

Note that Dyricus Simms-Edwards is #21, and at least 12 of the 20 kids ranked ahead of him haven't had nearly the success DSE has had in college. Jordan Prosser was #26. And most of the kids in the ranking have not distinguished themselves at all.

[DUBulldog]

Here is his 2010 rankings-

http://blogs.suntimes.com/hoopsreport/2009/04/illini_recruits_rule_2010_rank.html

Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard seem to be appropriately ranked #1 and #2, but then Big Ten kids Crandell Head, Lenzelle Smith, Ben Brust, and Anthony Johnson have not shown anything yet (all averaging around 1 ppg or less in very limited play) though I expect them to produce eventually. But then his rankings are loaded with kids who now appear greatly overrated like Karl Madison, Reggie Smith, Phillip Jackson, Alex Rossi, Jordan Threloff, Alex Dragicevich, Anthony Shoemaker, Isiah Jones, Levonte Dority, Tim Rustoven, Jarod Oldham, Brandon Spearman, and everyone on the list from #17 to #40.

Da Coach, overall I agree with what you're saying, but I don't know how you can say that Karl Madison now would appear greatly overrated. He's redshirting at Drake this season due to sprains of both ankles prior to the season. If healthy, he would probably be Drake's starting point guard right now. I could understand saying he was overrated if he was just sitting on the end of the bench due to ability, but not when he hasn't played yet due to injury.

[Da Coach]

OK, remove Madison from the list if you want, but my points remain the same. Henricksen does a great job following and writing about high school basketball, and I love reading his stuff. But his rankings each year have not correlated at all with success in college, so it's hard to argue he is considering "potential".
BTW, I have heard from a Drake insider who says Madison was not ready for D1, and would have probably redshirted anyway, even though Drake could use another point guard.

[cpacmel]

I think what is lost a bit in this partisan debate is the point that Joe Henricksen has been ranking kids in Illinois for a number of years and his rankings are extremely biased toward a) Chicago kids over downstate kids, b) toward kids who have signed with Illinois and other Big Ten schools or high-majors c) and he mistakenly equates athleticism or HS scoring averages with true D1 potential.

Here is his 2010 rankings-

http://blogs.suntimes.com/hoopsreport/2009/04/illini_recruits_rule_2010_rank.html

Jereme Richmond and Meyers Leonard seem to be appropriately ranked #1 and #2, but then Big Ten kids Crandell Head, Lenzelle Smith, Ben Brust, and Anthony Johnson have not shown anything yet (all averaging around 1 ppg or less in very limited play) though I expect them to produce eventually. But then his rankings are loaded with kids who now appear greatly overrated like Karl Madison, Reggie Smith, Phillip Jackson, Alex Rossi, Jordan Threloff, Alex Dragicevich, Anthony Shoemaker, Isiah Jones, Levonte Dority, Tim Rustoven, Jarod Oldham, Brandon Spearman, and everyone on the list from #17 to #40.

Note that Walt Lemon did not even make Henricksen's top 40, but is producing and having a far better freshman year in college than more than half of the kids on that list will ever have. And there are other examples of kids he did not even rate in his top 40 who are doing better than most of those kids he did list. If I had more time I would dig up Henricksen's rankings from 2009, 2008, and earlier and the point will be even more clear how poorly his rankings have correlated with any college success.

I am sorry Da Coach, but I disagree with you here. First of all because some of the above aren't playing this year or playing much this year doesn't mean they were, how do you put it, greatly overrated. Some of the kids you have listed above are being redshirted, while others are at JUCO's and some are at some pretty big time schools that have some big time players / upperclassman playing ahead of them.

This is not a swipe at Lemon or Bradley and I hope no one takes it this way, but he is in a situation where he has to contribute this season. To his credit he has done well.

Would it be fair to say that Prosser was overrated last season because he was being redshirted? I don't think so.

But man it's alittle premature to rank this class based on what 20 games? Let's bump this tread up 4 years from now and then discuss who was overrated and who wasn't.

[Da Coach]

But man it's alittle premature to rank this class based on what 20 games? Let's bump this tread up 4 years from now and then discuss who was overrated and who wasn't.

But the farther out you go (see Henricksen's rankings from 2009, 2008, 2007, etc.) the more my point is proven true. With very few exceptions, the kids he ranks highly do not have better success than many who were ranked much lower, or not ranked at all. He overrates kids, especially the certian types I outlined.