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My 2nd annual non-conference scheduling analysis thread

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  • #16
    Missouri St

    non-conference SoS: 266

    the schedule:
    Oral Roberts (183)
    N-Arkansas St (209)
    @Tennessee (27)
    @Tulsa (129)
    Pepperdine (266)
    Pacific (124)
    Arkansas-Little Rock (175)
    Central Arkansas (31
    @Oklahoma St (44)
    St Louis (151)
    Arkansas St (209)

    The forced games: As part of the PNIT, in addition to UT, they added Arkansas St, Pepperdine, and Pacific. (and that's the reason ASU is on there twice, so no concerns from me regarding that)

    Grade: B-

    The good: The preseason NIT presents a prime opportunity as usual.

    The bad: The RPIs don't match the SoSs (more on that below)

    The ugly: Nothing good ever happens in the state of Arkansas

    Analysis: That schedule above doesn't feel like a 266 schedule, does it? Not to me either. Upon further investigation, it's a unique case - although they avoid RPI anchors (except Central Arkansas), only 2 teams on their sked have winning records (guess which 2). It's sort of an unusual schedule with a lot of bad luck sprinkled in. This had to be the year Oral Roberts' bottom fell out? The year Tulsa slipped back? The year St Louis is fading? Before the season, I would've said those 3 games provided great depth to the schedule; now, they're actually hurting the SoS slightly.

    The PNIT was very good. I'd be willing to take my chances with Pepperdine and Pacific in the consy bracket most years. Didn't pan out. MSU did do good getting 2 marquee opportunities for signature wins. Not getting them is another discussion for another thread.

    I wonder what the fascination with the state of Arkansas is. ASU, CAU, UALR. Although UALR isn't that bad a game, it seems like that's 3 too many games against that state. They're not exactly basketball powerhouses. CAU in particular raises my eyebrow. Those plus St Louis and Oral Bob....seems like they're going out of their way to NOT go out of their way. Very regional games. MSU needs to work to branch out, find opponents from other parts of the country.

    How to improve the schedule: Think national, not local. Arkansas and Missouri and Oklahoma schools are fine and all, but this is a program that should work a bit harder at getting more exposure by getting teams from all over the country.

    Comment


    • #17
      Creighton

      non-conference SoS: 203

      the schedule:
      Northern Arizona (155)
      Louisiana-Lafayette (304)
      N-Iowa St (96)
      Kennesaw St (331)
      @Northwestern (61)
      BYU (2)
      @Nebraska (111)
      St Joseph's (176)
      Idaho St (260)
      Western Illinois (322)
      Samford (223)

      The forced games: N Arizona, Iowa St, and KSU were part of a tourney. BYU was the MWC game. Nebraska is an annual series.

      grade: D-

      The good: @Northwestern is a solid game...

      The bad: Just about everything else

      The ugly: Someone explain the tourney please

      Analysis: First off, since BYU was scheduled for them, no credit for that. They get credit for getting Northwestern, and it moves them off an F and onto a D-.

      First, that tourney. Do you need that tourney to get someone like Iowa St on the schedule? No, you don't. And you had to take on water (Kennesaw St) to get it (NAU isn't that bad for a "cupcake").

      However, look at all the other fattening cupcakes on there. WIU, Samford, Idaho St, La-Lafayette, 4 bad cupcakes all on there. They're a bit unlucky St Joe's has been so terrible since they started that series. But man, that is a tremendous amount of cupcakes they're taking on.

      How to improve the schedule: What happened to Creighton being the one Valley team that could get games against like mid majors? Get back to your Altman roots, guys.

      Comment


      • #18
        Wichita St

        non-conference SoS: 113

        the schedule:
        Texas Southern (160)
        N-Connecticut (6)
        N-Chaminade (NA)
        N-Virginia (144)
        Missouri-Kansas City (210)
        Chicago St (306)
        @San Diego St (7)
        Nicholls St (77)
        Alabama St (27
        @LSU (216)
        Tulsa (127)

        The forced games: SDSU was the MWC game, so unfortunately, can't give credit for getting the game themselves.

        grade: C+

        The good: Maui, baby

        The bad: The cupcakes are too fattening

        The ugly: TWO SWAC SCHOOLS?!?!?!?!??!?!? RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE

        Analysis: I told myself, "if you get to Maui, C is the worst possible grade you can get". I mean, it's Maui. That's the coup to end all coups. How can I give a below average grade to someone who gets an invite to Maui? I also told myself I would never give above a D to a team that willingly schedules two SWAC teams. ugh

        Well, Wichita tried.

        First things first: A bit unlucky in Maui. Beat UConn and WSU gets 2 shots at a combination of UK, MSU, U-Dub, OU. That's high quality. Instead, they get one win with marginal value. Those are the breaks sometimes.

        Tulsa and LSU are two games that I have no qualms with. Schedule and play those games.

        Everything else is rather dubious. First, my usual SWAC rant can be inserted here. Ugh. Why why why. Nicholls St's RPI won't hold up and maybe WSU knew something I didn't about them, so I give them a pass there. UMKC, Chicago St....two bad ideas on top of 2 bad SWAC-related ideas. That bottom 4 is terrible, terrible, terrible, unforgivable. All the goodwill of Maui is erased by this.

        How to improve the schedule: I'll give you one hint: NO MORE SWAC, EVER

        Wichita St could've had a top 25 schedule with simple SWAC avoidance and a win over UConn. So close, but now so, so far.

        Comment


        • #19
          Final grades:

          Northern Iowa A-
          Indiana St B+
          Evansville B
          Southern Illinois B-
          Missouri St B-
          Wichita St C+
          Bradley C
          Drake D+
          Creighton D-
          Illinois St F--


          two year rolling average:
          Indiana St A-
          Northern Iowa A-
          Bradley B
          Missouri St B-
          Creighton C
          Wichita St C
          Southern Illinois C
          Evansville C
          Drake D+
          Illinois St F--

          Comment


          • #20
            Updated non-conference SoS numbers

            Wichita St 56
            Indiana St 130
            Northern Iowa 203
            Bradley 212
            Evansville 244
            Creighton 250
            Southern Illinois 253
            Missouri St 265
            Drake 309
            Illinois St 335

            Holy crap did those numbers go to h&$! in a handbasket. At least the majority of teams are pooling in the 200s instead of the 300s like last year. ISU is still, well, ISU.

            Comment


            • #21
              Thanks to last night's loss, Bradley is very likely in the basement this year, and as a result, in the 2012-2013 season, will not participate in the MWC/MVC challenge (the MWC currently is scheduled to have 9 teams that year, but stay tuned )

              Comment


              • #22
                Cancun Challenge semi-finals next season:
                ISU vs. Rutgers
                Illinois vs. Richmond

                We're still locked in to a bad sked, but at least it's something.
                "But instead lets just hate while their MBB and WBB programs play blackjack against BU. Twenty-One in a row, seven by the Men & 14 by their women." ~NSBF

                @FrontRowSto

                Comment


                • #23
                  The final non-con SoS numbers!

                  Wichita St 75
                  Evansville 128
                  Indiana St 143
                  Northern Iowa 159
                  Missouri St 194
                  Southern Illinois 229
                  Creighton 236
                  Drake 272
                  Bradley 279
                  Illinois St 330

                  At least all but one of our teams got out of the 300s this year, and 4 of our teams broke the 50% threshold, thank goodness. But only 1 top 100 team is unforgivable. As are, really all of those numbers.

                  Comment

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