My 2nd annual non-conference scheduling analysis thread

[TheAsianSensation]

After it was such a hit last year, it's time to look at non-conference scheduling again, as everyone in the Valley is done with theirs (sans BracketBuster). I'll be looking at each Valley team, critiquing not just the schedule at face value, but the intent of the schedule. We'll see if the Valley is on the right track (hint: No.)

This year, it may turn into a Valley bashing thread, but I promise all criticism to be constructive.

Also, no Illinois St bashing this year, on the grounds that it's too easy. A blind mini-Ditka could criticize that non conference schedule

[TheAsianSensation]

Just one for tonight, we'll start with us:

Bradley

non-conference SoS: 191

the schedule:
non D-1
Northern Illinois (RPI 256)
Loyola Marymount (291)
N-USC (50)
N-TCU (90)
Eastern Illinois (266)
@Western Carolina (218 )
Utah (171)
@Duke (3)
Jackson St (122)
Detroit (196)

The forced games: Utah was the MWC/MVC challenge
The tournament games: non D-1, Loyola Marymount, USC, TCU

Grade: C

The good: You obviously take a game at Duke whenever you can get it. We're about out of positives after that

The bad: The series with Western Carolina has been abysmal for us from every angle. EIU went from mid-level OVC team to SoS disaster. Detroit underachieved. And the SWAC is the SWAC, I don't care if JSU will win that league.

The ugly: The HoF tournament was a disaster, saddling us with Marymount (underachieving) and a non D-1.

Analysis: Basically every opponent BU scheduled on their own turned into a worst case scenario. EIU went into the tank. NIU went into the tank. They were both supposed to be at least decent. Detroit was supposed to be Butler's main threat in the Horizon. Nope. Utah underachieving a little bit too. Marymount was supposed to be a mid-level WCC team. So our 191 SoS is near a worst-case scenario. But 191 is not good. I felt like, pre-season, this felt like a 110-120 SoS.

I feel like BU took a solid strategy. But they had back luck with the tournament, and had bad luck with basically every opponent. 191 is a very bad number for BU, but you're bound to get unlucky sooner or later. Hence, my grade of C.

As a sidenote, BU's done well in the scheduling department in the past, so I guess we chose a good year to get unlucky with the schedule.

How to fix the schedule: For each team, I'll describe how I'd improve scheduling practices. For Bradley, I don't think anything needs to change, outside of never scheduling a SWAC team again (duh). Scheduling has never been a problem before, so I'll allow an off year. As an aside though, if we're going to go on the road, let's not do it at a SoCon school if possible. If we really need to, we can get home-and-homes with the Horizon if you really want to do that.

[Bravesfan]

Excellent job as always TAS! I will say though that the HoF tourney did get us a game against an up and coming USC team that has already upset a top 25 team and nearly took out #3 Kansas. So the creampuffs we played leading to this game were worth it.

The 191 SOS actually hurt us even more badly than usual this year as we lost to a couple of those bad teams at home. So the lesson here is that if we have an off year in scheduling, we have to take better advantage of it than we did. But hopefully this year was the exception rather than the rule.

[TheAsianSensation]

Illinois St

non-conference SoS: 312

the schedule:
SIU-Edwardsville (RPI 324)
Tennessee St (24
@Arkansas-Little Rock (125)
South Dakota (285)
Louisiana-Monroe (311)
Jacksonville St (345)
UNLV (13)
Montana St (224)
Ohio (143)
Illinois-Chicago (22
@NC-Wilmington (135)

The forced games: UNLV is the MWC team. USD, LaM, and JSU are the Roundball Classic games.

Grade: F--

No need wasting text, since we all know the problems. Take out UNLV and the other teams are a combined 40-70.

How to fix the schedule: Rather than tell them to schedule tougher, they also need to schedule smarter. Jank should use these helpful hints:

-If you're going to schedule teams from really bad conferences, target their conference leaders. For example, Jackson St. Also, for example, don't pick the OVC bottom feeders in Jacksonville St and Tennessee St, target Austin Peay (I know ISU has Morehead St next year, so ok). At the very least, you have to try and avoid the 300+ RPI lemons.
-This better be the last tournament ISU ever hosts. That thing's been a disaster.
-If you go for home-and-homes, you can target better opponents. UNCW is a bottom team in the CAA now. Try and find a better mid-major to do it with. Same with UALR, although that one earns a pass in my book - they're at least supposed to be competent.
-Play a buy game. I know, I know. The one thing Jank doesn't want to do. But what he's doing isn't working, so he needs to recognize that and adjust.
-The Horizon, CAA, A-10, etc. are your friends. You don't need multiple OVC teams and multiple Sun Belt teams on your schedule. You're in a class above them, act like it.

With those tips, you can turn a 320 SoS into a 200 SoS, and at least be manageable.

[TheGuy]

Have no fear. As it turns out, Pantagraphs Jim Benson mentioned on White and Blue Review that ISU will be matched up against Rutgers in the Cancun Challenge next year. Still a big east team.....i guess. He also mentions that if ISU wins and also Illinois, they will most likely meet in a divisional championship. *there are two divisions in Cancun, so the possibility was out there that we might not even see them. I am just glad to hear it would be out there and not at Illinois as part of one of the 2 games played in the U.S.

[TheAsianSensation]

Have no fear. As it turns out, Pantagraphs Jim Benson mentioned on White and Blue Review that ISU will be matched up against Rutgers in the Cancun Challenge next year. Still a big east team.....i guess. He also mentions that if ISU wins and also Illinois, they will most likely meet in a divisional championship. *there are two divisions in Cancun, so the possibility was out there that we might not even see them. I am just glad to hear it would be out there and not at Illinois as part of one of the 2 games played in the U.S.

Thank goodness. I hope Jank makes these kinds of tournaments the rule, not the exception. I hope he never hosts another one in his lifetime.

[TheAsianSensation]

Southern Illinois

non-conference SoS: 222

the schedule:
@Illinois (52)
Northeastern (172)
Austin Peay (130)
Charleston Southern (256)
N-Purdue (16)
N-Wright St (174)
New Mexico (64)
@Chicago St (276)
Southeast Missouri St (319)
@Western Kentucky (123)
Northern Illinois (236)

The forced games: New Mexico was the MWC. The CIC tournament was APU, CSU, Purdue, and Wright St.

Grade: B-

The good: Getting Purdue on a neutral is worth the price of a tournament, and the other 3 opponents were actually pretty reasonable. @Illinois is obviously good too.

The bad: @Chicago St? What's the story behind that one? SEMO is not good either.

The ugly: Northeastern, Wright St, Western Kentucky....these are all teams that are usually better. SIU got a bit unlucky here.

Analysis: I feel a little bit of bad luck. @WKU should be a road game against a RPI Top 75 team most years. That's quality. Northeastern, Wright St, and APU all should be threats to be RPI Top 100. To have all 4 be down in some sort of fashion is a bit unlucky. That said, NIU turned out to be a bad idea (BU knows that to be fact too), and there are two terrible anchors (Chi St, SEMO). This just shows how harmful it can be having 2 anchors on your schedule. Charleston Southern is also an anchor, but was a package deal to get Purdue, so that's fine.

SIU got a neutral with Purdue and a road at Illinois. That's quality. The more the MVC as a whole can infiltrate the Big 10, even if it's a buy game at UI, the better, IMO.

Even though the SoS sits at 222, I think SIU is two games away from a reasonable schedule, actually. Get reasonable opponents in the place of SEMO and Chi St and I think you have something. I'm giving the B-, just above average, for 2 sterling opportunites against Big 10 schools and a solid series with WKU weighted against a couple fattening cupcakes. Their other games are alright - nothing to get thrilled at, but more often than not, are sufficient.

I would classify SIU as being a little unlucky with the schedule this year.

How to fix the schedule: Replace SEMO and Chi St with opponents more like APU, NIU, and N'eastern. Since SIU got a little unlucky with APU, NIU, and N'eastern being down, finding more of those types of schools to play reduces bad luck.

[TheAsianSensation]

Evansville

SoS: 164

the schedule:
Texas-San Antonio (RPI 212)
@Indiana (201)
@Middle Tennessee St (197)
@Butler (12)
@Air Force (152)
North Carolina (16)
Maryland-Eastern Shore (295)
Middle Tennessee St (197)
Norfolk St (32

The forced games: No tournament, so just Air Force.

Grade: B

The good: One power conference team in your home, another one as a true roadie, and at Butler to boot! I don't care if Indiana is RPI 201, that's the kind of top 3 every Valley school should aim for.

The bad: UMES and Norfolk St are the kind of cupcakes you need to avoid

The ugly: A home-and-home with MTSU? Really?

Analysis: Really, with those top 3 games, how can you give a C or below? Even if UNC fell into your lap because of other circumstances and Indiana isn't good and Butler was already an existing series, you still tip your cap.

However, that said, every single other game they got provided negative value to the schedule. I don't know what the circumstances behind that home and home is, but avoid that in the future, please. Or at least pick a quality opponent for it. There's 2 cupcakes who are obvious cupcakes: UMES and NSU. UE may be at the bottom of the Valley, but even the bottom teams need to try and avoid cupcakes. UTSA is the type of opponent who should be targeted as the easiest opponent on the schedule.

UE, being the Valley bottom feeder, probably feels like they need to stockpile wins. So I'll be a little more lenient on them. But a schedule with Butler and UNC should be above the 160's, IMO. In a vacuum, it's not an ideal schedule, but as a general rule, I don't mind the bottom team in the Valley sitting on an SoS hovering in the 160s.

How to fix the schedule: Don't pull that home-and-home stunt again without good reason. Try and upgrade the cupcakes just a little bit. Continue to find a way to get marquee games.

Not bad, UE.

[TheAsianSensation]

Indiana St

SoS: 131

the schedule:
N-Texas-Pan American (327)
N-Loyola-Chicago (207)
N-Eastern Kentucky (313)
@Ball St (76)
@Oral Roberts (151)
Buffalo (144)
@Notre Dame (19)
@Wyoming (31
DePaul (25
Oakland City (NA)
N-Purdue (1

The forced games: Those 3 lemons up top are part of the same tournament. Wyoming was the MWC team, so we can't hold that one against them.

Grade: B+

The good: Everything but the tournament.

The bad: Everything to do with the tournament.

The ugly: Did I mention the tournament? Also, the non-D1 isn't desirable, but there was plenty of beef on the schedule to counter it.

Analysis: Let's forget about the tournament (Nick Kladis Classic - Chicago, IL) for a moment, and look at the rest: a "neutral" with Purdue, 2 games against the Big East, and a 3-game stretch against 3 reasonable opponents (BSU-ORU-BU). That's quality, folks. They hit on all the "mid majors" they scheduled, although I doubt Ball St stays anywhere near the RPI Top 100. ORU and Buffalo are exactly the type of opponents a school like Indiana St should target for the middle-to-bottom of the schedule, quality wise. Notre Dame and Purdue are exactly the type of opponents you target for the top end of the schedule.

I'm not thrilled with the presence of Oakland City, but I'll allow it given the circumstances of the rest of the schedule.

Now, to that tournament. Can someone explain the idea behind signing up for that? That's just bad basketball teams everywhere. I wouldn't get within 10 miles of it. I'd much rather not play that tournament and add a couple RPI 250 cupcakes than take your chances with that. Spread out the cupcakes, given how filling the rest of the schedule is. That 3-game stretch ruins what could've been a top 50 schedule, easily. I'm curious what the thought process was behind that one.

P.S. If you replace the tournament with 2 other games against Buffalo-type opponents, Indiana St gets an A+ from me. It's worth a full letter grade.

How to fix the schedule: I think we've learned one lesson from both ISUs this year and previous years: Don't sign up for tournaments just for the sake of being in one! They can be SoS slayers, like this one would. Other than that, keep doing what you're doing.


One final note: Someone with a better memory help me. I remember hearing Indiana St turned down a home-and-home with an A-10 school (URI?) to play the Notre Dame game. Now, I can't really fault deciding to take the buy game at an in-state school, but it seems like you have to take the home-and-home for the betterment of the Valley and your own school. But I can't really criticize anyone who wants the UND game instead.

[TheAsianSensation]

If you're curious, these were the grades from last year:

Indiana St A
Northern Iowa A-
Bradley A-
Creighton B
Missouri St B-
Drake D+
Wichita St D+
Southern Illinois D+
Evansville D
Illinois St F--


As unbelievable as it sounds, from an SoS standpoint, the Valley is slightly better this year. Remember, last year, we had 4 teams in the bottom 25 in non-conference SoS.

As you can see, for now, Indiana St Respect +1 to me right now.

[TheAsianSensation]

Northern Iowa

non-conference SoS: 104

the schedule:
@Syracuse (2)
Coe (NA)
@Wisconsin-Milwaukee (135)
North Dakota (332)
Iowa St (101)
@TCU (139)
@Iowa (182)
Morehead St (123)
South Carolina St (343)
SIU-Edwardsville (322)
N-Indiana (194)
N-New Mexico (55)

the forced games: The Las Vegas Classic accounted for Indiana and New Mexico....and SIUE and SCSU. MWC game was TCU. Iowa St and Iowa are "forced", if you will.

Grade: A-

the good: Syracuse! Indiana and UNM on a neutral! 4 BCS teams in total!

the bad: North Dakota.

the ugly: The price you pay to be in a tournament...SCSU and SIUE...

analysis: I can't find much to fault. Part of me wants to criticize the SCSU and SIUE games...but if that's the price to pay to be in the tournament? I can't exactly criticize going for the tournament, but ouch that is an ugly price to pay for the SoS. Imagine how good it'd be without those 2 lemons. Looks like it's just one of those things.

@UWM and Morehead St represent 2 solid games that don't hurt the SoS. Valley teams should always look for these kinds of opponents to fill out the schedule.

The Iowa games always help, although Iowa is a drag this year

The only questionable game is North Dakota, in part because the tournament forced a couple cupcakes on the schedule already.

How to improve the schedule: not much improvement needed. Only one suggestion: If you know cupcakes are coming as part of a tournament, try to avoid them elsewhere.

That could be a top 50 SoS if the Las Vegas tourney could've just found competent opponents instead. Aargh.

[FortyTwo]

Illinois St

non-conference SoS: 312

the schedule:
SIU-Edwardsville (RPI 324)
Tennessee St (248 )
@Arkansas-Little Rock (125)
South Dakota (285)
Louisiana-Monroe (311)
Jacksonville St (345)
UNLV (13)
Montana St (224)
Ohio (143)
Illinois-Chicago (228 )
@NC-Wilmington (135)

The forced games: UNLV is the MWC team. USD, LaM, and JSU are the Roundball Classic games.

Grade: F--

No need wasting text, since we all know the problems. Take out UNLV and the other teams are a combined 40-70.

How to fix the schedule: Rather than tell them to schedule tougher, they also need to schedule smarter. Jank should use these helpful hints:

-If you're going to schedule teams from really bad conferences, target their conference leaders. For example, Jackson St. Also, for example, don't pick the OVC bottom feeders in Jacksonville St and Tennessee St, target Austin Peay (I know ISU has Morehead St next year, so ok). At the very least, you have to try and avoid the 300+ RPI lemons.
-This better be the last tournament ISU ever hosts. That thing's been a disaster.
-If you go for home-and-homes, you can target better opponents. UNCW is a bottom team in the CAA now. Try and find a better mid-major to do it with. Same with UALR, although that one earns a pass in my book - they're at least supposed to be competent.
-Play a buy game. I know, I know. The one thing Jank doesn't want to do. But what he's doing isn't working, so he needs to recognize that and adjust.
-The Horizon, CAA, A-10, etc. are your friends. You don't need multiple OVC teams and multiple Sun Belt teams on your schedule. You're in a class above them, act like it.
With those tips, you can turn a 320 SoS into a 200 SoS, and at least be manageable.

While I agree with the logic, this is the exact thing BCS conference teams would say about scheduling the MVC, yet we complain about them dodging us. Again, not saying I disagree with the assessment just feel like we fans can be a bit hypocritical when it comes to evaluating non-BCS scheduling versus the BCS schools approach. Your point about scheduling top end teams from lesser conferences if your going to do it is spot on.

[cpacmel]

The only questionable game is North Dakota, in part because the tournament forced a couple cupcakes on the schedule already.

Jacobsen if a grad of North Dakota. I think he's just trying to help his alma mater out.

[TheAsianSensation]

While I agree with the logic, this is the exact thing BCS conference teams would say about scheduling the MVC, yet we complain about them dodging us. Again, not saying I disagree with the assessment just feel like we fans can be a bit hypocritical when it comes to evaluating non-BCS scheduling versus the BCS schools approach. Your point about scheduling top end teams from lesser conferences if your going to do it is spot on.

Well, I don't complain about them dodging us. Others obviously do but I understand this is a business that isn't a good environment for mid-majors to get those kinds of games.

Jacobsen if a grad of North Dakota. I think he's just trying to help his alma mater out.

I think I vaguely remember it being discussed last year too. Can't criticize that too much.

[TheAsianSensation]

The Drake

non-conference SoS: 308

the schedule:
Texas Southern (147)
@Iowa St (96)
N-Southern Utah (260)
N-St John's (7)
N-Weber St (184)
@Colorado St (71)
@Eastern Michigan (340)
Boise St (179)
Iowa (182)
Dartmouth (231)
Chicago St (282)

The forced games: Colorado St is the MWC/MVC opponent. The 3 neutrals were part of the Great Alaska Shootout. And then there's the Iowa/Iowa St thing.

Grade: D+

The good: The GAS provided an opportunity

The bad: Forgetting the forced games above, the best game they scheduled themselves was Boise St.

The ugly: The SWAC and Chicago St.

Analysis: D+ seems a bit harsh, to be honest, but it has to be done. To be fair, though, it's not their fault there's zero depth in the Alaska tourney. Those are the types of tourneys that are supposed to keep out Southern Utah-like teams. Weber St will get better and get their RPI up, so don't worry about that.

That rise, however, will be offset by the absolute plummeting of Texas Southern. A SWAC school. That RPI will plummet about 150 spots. Ugh. What do I say about the SWAC?

Obviously the Iowa games don't hurt, but like for UNI, they didn't help much either.

So once we're to the other games Drake willingly scheduled, that's where their efforts fall off a cliff entirely. A road game at RPI 340. Willingly scheduling Chicago St, always a bad bad idea. They are a bit unlucky with Boise St. And Dartmouth? Curious. It's not often you see an Ivy play a buy game at a MVC school. And for good reason.

How to improve the schedule: Drake serves as a case study in filling out the back end of your schedule. The front end of the schedule isn't all that terrible, but you see what happens when you let a SWAC school, Dartmouth, Chicago St, and EMU onto the back end? The bottom falls out.