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Taking a red pen to my colleague's top 25
May, 12, 2010
MAY 12
10:38
AM ET
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By Fran Fraschilla
Editor's note: He's much too modest to point it out publicly, but Fran Fraschilla did this exercise last year after Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb picked their preseason top 25s. Our favorite coach was a perfect 7-for-7 in his selections. Check it out here.
It's that time of year to debunk some of my friend Andy Katz's top-25 selections. He's obviously done his homework, but here are six teams on which I will take issue with him:
Baylor
Andy's Take: Baylor at No. 4
My Take: A little too high
No one has more respect for the Bears than I do. I've been on this bandwagon since the beginning of the Scott Drew era. But the loss of Ekpe Udoh will be huge. It's not often that your team's "glue guy" is a potential lottery pick, but Udoh's effect on Baylor's Elite Eight run transcended statistics. Tweety Carter's leadership will be missed as well. Baylor will be a top-25 team, however, because LaceDarius Dunn is an enormous offensive weapon and Drew has stocked the cupboard with fresh talent. Multiskilled 6-foot-10 forward Perry Jones has as much pure talent as any incoming freshman in the country. If he develops a killer instinct, he'll affect the Big 12 race single-handedly.
Kansas
Andy's Take: Kansas at No. 16
My Take: Don't disrespect the Jayhawks like that!
I realize Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry are gone, but there is enough talent on the roster to make a customary run to the Big 12 title (although Andy is right about Missouri being in the top 15). The Morris twins should only get better as juniors, and Tyshawn Taylor's junior season should have less drama than his sophomore season. Freshman point guard Josh Selby has Bill Self's kind of toughness, and senior Mario Little, who redshirted last season, was one of the nation's best junior-college players two seasons ago. The roster is still stocked with talent, so the Jayhawks won't fall off as much as Andy thinks.
Northwestern
Andy's Take: No Northwestern
My Take: The Wildcats crack the top 25
Maybe I am going out on a ledge here, but the Wildcats return all five starters from an NIT team that won 20 games. The Wildcats also return their best player, Kevin Coble, from a foot injury that sidelined him all last season. While Coble led Bill Carmody's club in scoring and rebounding his first three seasons, 6-8 junior John Shurna stepped out of his shadow last season to finish third in the Big Ten in scoring (18.2 points per game). The backcourt of Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford is quietly one of the Big Ten's best. The league should have at least three teams in the top 10 all season, and that should bode well for Northwestern's RPI and ultimately its opportunity to make its first NCAA appearance. Who needs a 96-team field?
Gonzaga
Andy's Take: Gonzaga at No. 9
My Take: Too high
Don't worry, Zags fans. Your team will be back at its customary place at the top of the West Coast Conference this season, especially with rivals Portland and Saint Mary's depleted by graduation. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre certainly will dominate conference opponents, but in order to justify a high ranking, guard play will be critical for Mark Few's club. Ultimately, the loss of Matt Bouldin will be huge, especially since returning backcourt mates Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson have been more up-and-down than a roller coaster at Six Flags. This is a top-25 team for sure, but I think top-10 is too high.
Florida
Andy's Take: Florida at No. 10
My Take: Too high
Five starters return to the Gators, and many of the SEC East's stars are off to the NBA, so there is a golden opportunity to get back into a prime position to win a conference title. The problem, for me, is that the same five starters who return struggled to defend and make a lot of perimeter shots this past season. Remember, they squeaked into the NCAA tournament before being ousted in the first round by BYU. Andy is correct when he writes that there might not be a future NBA player on the roster, but I am not sure any of the five starters realizes that. Billy Donovan has added nice depth up front, but the backcourt is thin. That ultimately could be an Achilles' heel.
Ohio State
Andy's Take: Ohio State at No. 6
My Take: The Buckeyes are a precarious pick
I love the overall talent of this Ohio State roster. It easily merits a No. 6 ranking. There is a great combination of experience returning (David Lighty played in the 2007 Final Four) and a monster recruiting class heading to Columbus. Freshmen Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas will punish opponents inside. Here's the issue Thad Matta's team must overcome: the lack of a proven point guard. Freshman Aaron Craft will get the first crack at it, and if he succeeds, the sky is the limit for Ohio State. If not, Matta will have to think creatively and come up with a Plan B. Moving Evan Turner to point guard was a stroke of genius. Lighty, get ready.
Fran Fraschilla is a college basketball analyst for ESPN and a frequent contributor to ESPN.com. You can follow him on Twitter at franfraschilla.
Obstacles don't have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don't turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.
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