Pantagraph beat writer predicts the 2010-2011 Valley finish

[tornado]

He sums up all the action since season's end and claims the Valley will go this way...

1- Wichita State
2- Creighton
3- Missouri State
4- Northern Iowa
5- Bradley
6- Illinois State
7- Indiana State
8- Southern Illinois
9- Drake
10- Evansville

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/article_f4cb5ed8-50ef-11df-9898-001cc4c03286.html

My thoughts - I think Drake will do better than 9th, ISU is surely better than a 6th place team, and I think Bradley will do better than 5th.
Picking Creighton 2nd, given all the turmoil, player losses, coach gone, and juco incoming is also risky...and I think the loss of Hannah is bigger for the Shockers than he is considering.
Also - recall, in the 2nd half of the season, when all those new & young players should have been gelling at Missouri State...they went 7-9 and finished only 2 games out of 9th place
in the Valley and their four game run in the eieio tourney was against four opponents whose RPI's total over 500!!

[PTownHawkeye]

This is pure speculation, but I think the top is about right and the bottom needs to be shuffled. I think ISU is the biggest unknown. My instinct is that they will be in the 7-10th range due to lack of leadership and a major lack of cohesiveness. However, if Hill and Carmichel break out and they find some leadership at PG, they could be a 3-5th place team.

I also agree that Drake will be higher and that SIU and Evansville will be at fighting for 9-10.

[LittleBrave]

I will refrain from the temptation of repeating last year's popular saying, "Bradley will NOT finish worse than 3rd this season!".
However, if we land a true big, I think we have one of the best teams (talent-wise) in the Valley heading into next season, and no other team boasts the quality of our guards (AW, SM, DD, DSE, JE, WL?).

[TNMSUFAN]

Also - recall, in the 2nd half of the season, when all those new & young players should have been gelling at Missouri State...they went 7-9 and finished only 2 games out of 9th place in the Valley and their four game run in the eieio tourney was against four opponents whose RPI's total over 500!!

OR 2 games out of 4th...all how you looked at it I suppose

We improved 13 games from the year before with a 2nd year coach who still hasn't turned over the roster completely and still has players adjusting to a new system. We lost 7 of our 10 Valley games by 6pts or less so we weren't far off with 7 new players. We will be improved with everyone back and 3 new recruits coming in...Scheer will challenge for FOY next season.

[LittleBrave]

OR 2 games out of 4th...all how you looked at it I suppose

We improved 13 games from the year before with a 2nd year coach who still hasn't turned over the roster completely and still has players adjusting to a new system. We lost 7 of our 10 Valley games by 6pts or less so we weren't far off with 7 new players. We will be improved with everyone back and 3 new recruits coming in...Scheer will challenge for FOY next season.

I will not rule MSU out for contender for winning the Valley reg. season.
They were in almost every game last year and I believe you guys got better as the season went along (though the Valley record didn't show it).
Hope we can give you a better game next year at JQH arena!

[srw]

He sums up all the action since season's end and claims the Valley will go this way...

1- Wichita State
2- Creighton
3- Missouri State
4- Northern Iowa
5- Bradley
6- Illinois State
7- Indiana State
8- Southern Illinois
9- Drake
10- Evansville

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/article_f4cb5ed8-50ef-11df-9898-001cc4c03286.html

My thoughts - I think Drake will do better than 9th, ISU is surely better than a 6th place team, and I think Bradley will do better than 5th.
Picking Creighton 2nd, given all the turmoil, player losses, coach gone, and juco incoming is also risky...and I think the loss of Hannah is bigger for the Shockers than he is considering.
Also - recall, in the 2nd half of the season, when all those new & young players should have been gelling at Missouri State...they went 7-9 and finished only 2 games out of 9th place
in the Valley and their four game run in the eieio tourney was against four opponents whose RPI's total over 500!!

All things equal BU should be picked 2nd or 3rd based on many of the things listed above. To pick BU lower would be to pick BU lower based on history.

But remember BU will have a minimum of 1 new assistant, and likely more.
Im sure terminology will be the same, but emphasis may be different, and it may take the guys some time to pick that stuff up.

[BradleyBrave]

BU being picked that low is purely based on past performance, which is pretty telling on what the rest of the league thinks of our program. On paper, there's no way one can argue that Creighton, UNI, or Missouri St will finish ahead of the Braves. I think Platt will make a noticeable difference, and expect us to contend for a title.

I really hope we don't hear people saying in February "Well, we were picked 5th and are probably going to finish 4th, so we overachieved. What were you expecting?" We heard that WAY too much this past season.

[Da Coach]

BU being picked that low is purely based on past performance, which is pretty telling on what the rest of the league thinks of our program. On paper, there's no way one can argue that Creighton, UNI, or Missouri St will finish ahead of the Braves. I think Platt will make a noticeable difference, and expect us to contend for a title.

I really hope we don't hear people saying in February "Well, we were picked 5th and are probably going to finish 4th, so we overachieved. What were you expecting?" We heard that WAY too much this past season.

You heard this way too much?
Where? I never heard it once. I am not saying it might not have been said here, but I don't think anyone was satisfied with how last season went.

[CubbieBear]

BU being picked that low is purely based on past performance, which is pretty telling on what the rest of the league thinks of our program. On paper, there's no way one can argue that Creighton, UNI, or Missouri St will finish ahead of the Braves. I think Platt will make a noticeable difference, and expect us to contend for a title.

I really hope we don't hear people saying in February "Well, we were picked 5th and are probably going to finish 4th, so we overachieved. What were you expecting?" We heard that WAY too much this past season.

Should we finish better than 5th in the Valley this year?? YES!! But, as I have repeatedly said, it will NOT happen until we hire a new head coach.

I truly must give the Pantagraph writers credit...they don't blow smoke up ISU's dress every year in their predictions (like our PJS...who always pick us to finish top 3 and we NEVER do)

[BradleyBrave]

You heard this way too much?
Where? I never heard it once. I am not saying it might not have been said here, but I don't think anyone was satisfied with how last season went.

I was involved with a number of conversations on this board during the season with people who said that we were picked 6th, so finishing 6th was OK because it's where we were picked, and finishing in the 4-5 game was overachieving. It was then followed by a myriad of excuses. At this point it's neither here nor there, it's in the past and what's done is done. Onward and upward. I just don't want to be having those conversations again this year. I don't think anyone does!

[Da Coach]

I truly must give the Pantagraph writers credit...they don't blow smoke up ISU's dress every year in their predictions (like our PJS...who always pick us to finish top 3 and we NEVER do)

It will happen this year, barring key injuries.

[tornado]

I was involved with a number of conversations on this board during the season with people who said that we were picked 6th, so finishing 6th was OK because it's where we were picked...

I never saw this sentiment expressed once...

but I did see conversation relating to coach of the year talk in which people pointed out which coaches finished higher than was predicted...but that sure isn't anything like saying that poster was happy where we finished....

[BradleyJD]

It will happen this year, barring key injuries.

It should happen this year, no matter what. BU has to finish in the top 3.

[BradleyBrave]

I never saw this sentiment expressed once...

Then I guess it never happened. It is settled.

[real fan]

I think it is way to early for anyone to predict what places teams will finish next season, you still have teams recruiting players and changing in coaching staffs, plus injuries happen during the summer that can have huge effects, the one thing I can say is that BU had better finish top 3 or someone will most likely not return as coach.