Conference Realignment

[SFP]

We'll see. The key is going to be once the Big East split happens. The likes of BU, Creighton, and WSU (and probably Butler too) will have to act immediately. Like, within hours. Of course, you risk straining MVC relations with everyone else.

We should be in talks with Creighton right now discussing a package deal with any new league that may or may not sprout up. For that fact we should also bring Butler to the table. It's all about planning and setting yourself up for the best outcome, period.

[squirrelgotdead]

I agree SFP. I would hope we haven't limited ourselves to any one school. I hope we've had similar talks with Creighton, DePaul, Marquette, Butler and SLU. The gorilla in the room is Drake. Bradley and Drake have always had each others backs. . .so it is possible we also stipulate Drake be included. Of course, Drake and Butler both have football covered, so they could be in a completely different category then what we're talking.

But the reality for Bradley is this: Creighton and DePaul have a bigger basketball ceiling (bigger facilities, larger markets) and right now, being brutally honest, instant name recognition.

Drake and Butler have football. And sadly, more recent basketball recognition.

When you get right down to it. . .Bradley is very low on the totem poll for priority here. So we MUST have someone willing to be our partner and usher us in someplace.

[Da Coach]

Drake's football team is non-scholarship. It carries no weight whatsoever, and would not be considered any advantage for them.

Peoria has always been considered a small market, and always will be. That has nothing to do with how well Bradley has played in recent years, or anytime. But despite Des Moines being the bigger market, Bradley would be the much more attractive school for a bigger conference over Drake and their 3,000 fans for basketball.

However, I don't see it happening. Bradley will remain in the MVC, and the MVC will remain one of the top couple non-BCS conferences for many years.

[squirrelgotdead]

Drake's football team is non-scholarship. It carries no weight whatsoever, and would not be considered any advantage for them. .

I subscribe to the thought that football controls everything. It doesn't matter what the perceived level is. The sheer existence of football puts you in the forefront of any consideration or at a distinct advantage for future conference realignment.

I get that's a minority opinion, but I think people are underestimating just how much football shapes all of this.

So I believe that because Bradley does not have football, they are at a distinct disadvantage. That's not being negative towards Bradley at all. Just the belief that in the future, football determines all classification and realizing where that places us.

[TheAsianSensation]

I don't think Drake football will be a factor. I expect non-scholarship football programs to stay that way - one possible exception is Georgetown, only if a move is necessary to stay with the Big East.

[thefish7]

Yeah I also don't think drake or butler football programs are factors. I also think Bradley basketball is a little more marketable than you're giving it credit for because of its level of market dominance even if ts an undersized market. Bradley basketball is much bigger than drake and historically much bigger than butler. We also tend to be "bigger" than many of the eastern schools in this discussion. I think our basketball program is an attractive one.

[squirrelgotdead]

I believe others may be tempted to jump from non-scholly. Because if there are teams that fall out of the Major picture there will be opportunities for schools to capitalize.

Drake plays in the same non-scholly league as Dayton, Butler, Davidson, Jacksonville and San Diego among others.

Dayton and Butler might be in a position to make the jump if for no other reason then they can be at the highest level in all sports. As the number of southern schools starting new football programs increases (Campbell, UTSA, USA, and possibly Stetson and FGCU) schools like Davidson and Jacksonville may be able to move into new leagues and dominate by already being established and offering schollies over new programs and not have to play in trans-continental leagues.

San Diego may be in a prime position to latch on to a better league by sheer virtue of them having football over other WCC schools.

So if Drake wants to continue to play football, you know it sees the possibility that the Pioneer League membership could be dissipating when all this shakes out.

Drake, Valpo and Morehead could be all that's left and that would not qualify as a league.

[thefish7]

As an example of this market dominance thing I keep babbling about St Johns is a great example. They are located in NYC and play their home games at Madison Square Garden. They're in the Big East and have a stellar tradition. However their average attendance last season was right around 5400/game. Bradley plays in a market about 1/50 the size and draws nearly twice as many fans to a game. St Johns just isn't that big of a deal in the NY market. You could argue they have good potential for good ratings on a tourney game but in general it would seem to me that they don't necessarily offer more revenue than Bradley-- and I feel like almost certainly less than CU or WSU.

[squirrelgotdead]

St. John's right now, at least, plays most of their home games at the 6K Carnesecca Arena because they don't draw enough for games at MSG.

Last year they played 9 home games at CA vs. 6 at MSG. One of those games at MSG was their SEC challenge game vs. GA.

The Johnnies did actually play more games overall at MSG, though this year. They played 2 games in the MSG Holiday tourney which rotates among the bigger NY schools and an additional pair in the Big East Tournament.

So, overall it was 9 at CA and 10 at MSG, but only 6 of those were official home games.

[houstontxbrave]

As an example of this market dominance thing I keep babbling about St Johns is a great example. They are located in NYC and play their home games at Madison Square Garden. They're in the Big East and have a stellar tradition. However their average attendance last season was right around 5400/game. Bradley plays in a market about 1/50 the size and draws nearly twice as many fans to a game. St Johns just isn't that big of a deal in the NY market. You could argue they have good potential for good ratings on a tourney game but in general it would seem to me that they don't necessarily offer more revenue than Bradley-- and I feel like almost certainly less than CU or WSU.

It is not about attendance. It is about eye balls tuned or potentially tuned to Television.

No one goes to Seton Hall, St Johns, DePaul games but those schools will be in demand because of the population and markets where they are located.

And Football will decide everything. BU not playing football will eventually be an issue. The school and the MVC better already be proactive regarding alignment.

[SFP]

It is not about attendance. It is about eye balls tuned or potentially tuned to Television.

No one goes to Seton Hall, St Johns, DePaul games but those schools will be in demand because of the population and markets where they are located.

And Football will decide everything. BU not playing football will eventually be an issue. The school and the MVC better already be proactive regarding alignment.

I agree with you and 99% of squirlegotdead's comment. If the MVC becomes irrelevant and we hold unto it because of tradition then the BU administration has some explaining to do. Once the unraveling starts it will happen quickly and all I'm saying a person entrusted to make sure our basketball program stay relevant better have a few contigancy plans. Let's not compare our program and Peoria with St John's. Two completely different markets. As Houston has commented it is all about the potential eye balls and the Peoria market does not come close in population, demographics or marketing dollars to what NY can bring.

[thefish7]

That's my point. It's about TV, but who in the monstrous NY market actually cares to watch a St Johns game on TV? How many do they televise? When one is telvised what kind of rating do they get? I'm just saying I don't think were as small market as we feel. I agree also that BCS football will be the driving force in realignment, but my point is I feel like Bradley can't wait for it and hope they land upright. We have a lot to lose and, to me at least, little to risk by trying to work ahead of the wave.

[squirrelgotdead]

Right, and I'm not necessarily saying these things are going to happen. It is just my own educated belief this is the direction things are going, just based on the economics and social implications of football.

I share the hopes that Bradley has several plans that it can pursue when the time arises.

I still think the easiest thing the NCAA could do when it announces new membership criteria are simply come out and say: In order to play DI basketball, your league or a certain % of its membership must also compete at the FBS level in football.

Right there, the MVC is out. However, a good number of its members could make a go of it long-term by making the move to FBS football. It won't be easy, and it won't happen quickly, but schools like SIU, IlSU, UNI, and MSU could succeed. Indiana State would be a problem, just because the entire state is a football wasteland.

So for BU's sake, I hope at the very least, those schools are prepared for that possibility (even though it's not likely).

I'm simply saying it's impossible to predict what will happen. All you can do is prepare for the worst but hope for the best. But if you sit idly by, you'll lose no matter what happens.

[houstontxbrave]

That's my point. It's about TV, but who in the monstrous NY market actually cares to watch a St Johns game on TV? How many do they televise? When one is telvised what kind of rating do they get? I'm just saying I don't think were as small market as we feel. I agree also that BCS football will be the driving force in realignment, but my point is I feel like Bradley can't wait for it and hope they land upright. We have a lot to lose and, to me at least, little to risk by trying to work ahead of the wave.

I look at it this way. If you put a BU game on there will be X potential viewers. Put a St Johns game on and there will be X + a substantially larger number of potential viewers.

There is no way that Bradley can compete potential viewer versus potential viewer with St Johns.

It really does not matter the actual number who MIGHT tune in its the potential of the number who MIGHT tune in.

Even put every BU game on in Chicago to STL and there still is no where near the potential viewers that a St Johns game could have in just NY/NJ and Conn.

I am very very worried about the future of both the MVC and that of Bradley as a upper level D1 product.

When it comes to BU's whole package it pales in comparison to any of the football playing members. Without Football we are way down the pecking order of desirable schools in the MVC.

Wonder who will be the first MVC school to announce a plan to go past the level of football they play right now... ISU, MSU, ISU or UNI. When that domino falls we will start to see a clearer picture with the MVC.

[SFP]

If I'm a guessing man I'd have to pick MSU. They have a substantial alum who is willing to shell out the dollars and that is what it will take. Unfortunately the way the economy is very few schools can make that leap right now. That is why it is a great time to make a plan based on basketball only schools as a contingency. It has a much better chance of making a cut now then it will 4-5 years from now. Then it needs to establish its brand of superior basketball play that competes with any league.