Conference Realignment

[thefish7]

I totally understand the reasons for a football conference to go to 12 teams. Im still not convinced why expanding beyond that really necessarily improve profitability for individual teams in the conference. Because of this I don't really see the megadoom others do. If your six bcs conferences all go to 12 football programs you're talking about those conferences adding a total of 7 teams to the bcs system (1 for b10, 2 for pac10, and 4 for the big east). I think that same process could also "output" eight non-bball teams from the big east. I haven't seen a well thought out business case for 4 super mega dootball conferences of ~20 teams.

[TheAsianSensation]

I totally understand the reasons for a football conference to go to 12 teams. Im still not convinced why expanding beyond that really necessarily improve profitability for individual teams in the conference. Because of this I don't really see the megadoom others do. If your six bcs conferences all go to 12 football programs you're talking about those conferences adding a total of 7 teams to the bcs system (1 for b10, 2 for pac10, and 4 for the big east). I think that same process could also "output" eight non-bball teams from the big east. I haven't seen a well thought out business case for 4 super mega dootball conferences of ~20 teams.

The mathematical key is adding a market which provides a greater revenue than the current average revenue brought by each program. Using Rutgers as a crude example, bringing along the New York market (the Big 10 network, etc) will increase the average revenue brought by each program, therefore increasing revenue for each program.

So, in theory, if you select the right programs, you can keep adding and adding forever, making more money while doing so.

[squirrelgotdead]

I totally understand the reasons for a football conference to go to 12 teams. Im still not convinced why expanding beyond that really necessarily improve profitability for individual teams in the conference. Because of this I don't really see the megadoom others do. If your six bcs conferences all go to 12 football programs you're talking about those conferences adding a total of 7 teams to the bcs system (1 for b10, 2 for pac10, and 4 for the big east). I think that same process could also "output" eight non-bball teams from the big east. I haven't seen a well thought out business case for 4 super mega dootball conferences of ~20 teams.

I read a study about the economics of the Big East going to 16 teams that broke down the individual winners and losers financially.

The biggest loser: Syracuse is losing over $2.5 million in revenue every year with the bloated conference.

The biggest winner: Cincinnati's football profits have nearly doubled and increased revenues overall have been close to net $3 million. However, most of their profits are being committed to facilities as part of their obligation to universal upgrades to be added to the Big East.

But the reason why a 64-team elite division of college athletics could be forthcoming is this. . .$$$.

You can't think of it in terms of what dollars are lost upfront by jeopardizing the NCAA Tournament. Because that will be moot when football profits double and other sports profits like baseball increase exponentially. Simply by cutting FBS football nearly in half, you take half the competition out of the equation. While yes that takes part of the market away, you increase marketability and profits by brand.

Football controls everything. Some schools football budgets alone are 4-5 times larger than some schools overall athletic budgets.

[thefish7]

Lol I love iPhone typos. "dootball" -- maybe that can help us limit the confusion with soccer.

I totally get what you're saying, Tas, but my point is I haven't seen a business case that convinced me that there was profit as opposed to just revenue. Im too lazy to type all the downsides i see in megaconferences on the phone... But when I get home I'll try to post something coherent.

[squirrelgotdead]

Well let me start off then.

The reason a playoff in football doesn't happen now is because the bowls are profitable for pretty much everyone and everyone has a seat. The problem with a playoff is it drastically reduces the participation rate and institutional revenue. But all FBS NCAA conferences would demand and likely have to be given a seat. While the event would likely be extremely profitable, universally revenues would be down.

If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams. . .3 other leagues likely do exactly the same thing. Why? Concentration of power and brand.

By doing so, instead of TV being divvied up hundreds of ways, these 64 teams will have the airwaves to themselves. Sure, everyone else will likely continue to have TV coverage and audience. But the "Big 3" + ESPN and Fox will not be involved in anything off-brand.

Those 64 teams go on their own, create their own organization, they can not only put together an insanely profitable football playoff, they can eliminate all riffraff and debate over who should or should not be included.

Basketball. . .because there won't be cupcake buy games. . .nearly every game will pit top 50 teams against one another. The talent will mostly migrate entirely to that level. That will increase profits exponentially for basketball. They can also run a 16-team playoff that makes more money for ALL members then the 64-team NCAA.

Baseball becomes profitable because it will become a much clearer scouting tool for MLB as TV coverage will become more prevalent and increase exposure. And again the talent increases because it all migrates to this level.

[TheAsianSensation]

I think it's worth mentioning in basketball that the 64-team organization would likely become, say, 80. I can't see a deal where the likes of Villanova, Georgetown, and a couple other basketball-only heavy hitters are left behind. That's leaving a LOT of money on the table (D.C. area, Philly, NYC with St John's, Chicago area with DePaul even).

The other white elephant in the room worth discussing is lacrosse and hockey, the other 2 sports that I think are big enough to warrant special consideration when determining a split.

Lacrosse would be played by about 13-14 members of a split. Hockey would be played by about 8-9 members of a split. Not sure if that's enough. In addition, stalwarths in both sports would be left behind. Sure, you could get a few to join for that sport only, or they could demand to be included for all sports. Some of the negotiating here could get messy.

Other sports aren't big enough to warrant consideration. Some will be played by all member schools, other sports only played by a few. Won't matter.

[SFP]

There's is no way that John Hopkins or Princeton would be left off of any lacrosse league, PERIOD!

I also believe basketball would have to be treated differently then football and there is no way Georgetown, Villanova would be left off any reorganization. With that said I'm betting that there will be 4 Football Conferences with 16 teams comprising of these geographical logical locations with their hope of also controlling basketball:

ACC - needs 2 more and will absorb them from the Big East football teams
SEC - needs 2 more and a Texas school and Louisville may make sense
Big X - Needs 5 schools will be fighting for Syracuse and Texas
Pac X - needs 6 The 2 Utah schools are a lock and throw in Nebraska, Colorado

You still have a few schools being courted hard ie Kansas, Oklahoma and perhaps a school or two from those conferences changing affiliations. There will be a few schools left out which then will go into panic mode and try to start another competative league ie Cincy, S. Florida, Iowa State and that is where the 2nd flood of realignments happen at the mid-major level. BU at that time better be aligned with a power basketball conference that consist of 16 teams which spreads from the east coast to the mid-west. There will also be a west-coast power basketball conference which I expect to see Gonzaga be a part of.

[squirrelgotdead]

I disagree that Georgetown or Villanova will have to be part of any re-organization.

Football controls everything. I can not stress that enough. Basketball controls nothing, or at best very little or controls the economy of a very small handful of schools. . .Bradley would be in that pool along with the likes of Georgetown and Villanova.

If there's a split, it could happen by 1 of 3 ways, IMO.

1) NCAA-initiated. The NCAA could handle this in a variety of ways. And each of those I could provide a dissertation on. But I want to break it down to the lowest common denominator. This could go either way for Valley schools, IMO. Without FBS football we could be on the wrong side of the divide. However, if concessions are made for basketball and the split is close to including 40-60% of DI then they would be on the right side.

2) Modest wave of expansion and/or separation. . .the 6 BCS conferences expand and absorb the biggest threats (such as BYU, Utah, UNLV etc). The NCAA could opt to recognize them as the new FBS, or possibly the BCS goes off and creates its own organization. This would be the most flexible option for affiliate basketball schools.

3) The 64-team Major College Association. If this doomsday scenario is indeed the end game. . .those schools are not going to offer any consolation prizes for those outside the bubble. This is where it gets real up in here. Football is king. No one will want to be left out, most likely, but those who are for sure in won't be looking out for anyone's interest but their own.

Where Bradley really has its problem is its total lack of football. Georgetown and Villanova, for instance, if threatened with this reality, could bite the bullet and commit to making the move. In scenario 3, if the Big East is to survive they will almost have to. But if they do not want to commit, the other schools will not hesitate to exclude them. The Big East members won't be sticking around long enough to support them, IMO.

The other thing is that could make things easier on everybody is the NCAA gets out of the football business altogether. The institutions could still do the football thing, but under a completely different umbrella and organization. That would create some flexibility in what schools could do.

[squirrelgotdead]

I think it's worth mentioning in basketball that the 64-team organization would likely become, say, 80. I can't see a deal where the likes of Villanova, Georgetown, and a couple other basketball-only heavy hitters are left behind. That's leaving a LOT of money on the table (D.C. area, Philly, NYC with St John's, Chicago area with DePaul even).

The other white elephant in the room worth discussing is lacrosse and hockey, the other 2 sports that I think are big enough to warrant special consideration when determining a split.

Lacrosse would be played by about 13-14 members of a split. Hockey would be played by about 8-9 members of a split. Not sure if that's enough. In addition, stalwarths in both sports would be left behind. Sure, you could get a few to join for that sport only, or they could demand to be included for all sports. Some of the negotiating here could get messy.

Other sports aren't big enough to warrant consideration. Some will be played by all member schools, other sports only played by a few. Won't matter.

If there is a new organization built altogether apart from the NCAA, there will be 3 sports on the men's side: Football, basketball, and baseball. Possibly hockey and soccer. But the women's side will still need to meet Title IX requirements and football will still distort the numbers. And schools could still compete at the highest level of the NCAA in whatever sport since it isn't sanctioned by the new association.

[SFP]

squirrelgotdead We all are on the same belief that football is completely a different monster then the rest of the sports.

Basketball though is still played at a high level in small schools and the fan base would revolt if there is a huge exclusion from the ability to participate at the top. Who knows really what will happen. Maybe they could create a system like the English Premier League.

[thefish7]

squirrelgotdeadWho knows really what will happen. Maybe they could create a system like the English Premier League.

I actually think this is the best answer for professional sports other than the NFL. Might work okay in college too, but it would take some (or all) of the fun of the tourney away.

[TheAsianSensation]

If there is a new organization built altogether apart from the NCAA, there will be 3 sports on the men's side: Football, basketball, and baseball. Possibly hockey and soccer. But the women's side will still need to meet Title IX requirements and football will still distort the numbers. And schools could still compete at the highest level of the NCAA in whatever sport since it isn't sanctioned by the new association.

Um, if these schools break away from the NCAA for the revenue sports, what's to stop the NCAA from giving the BCS schools the middle finger and just kicking them out of all sports? In fact, I'd expect it.

Also, I suppose, under your scenario, Villanova would jump from FCS to FBS faster than you can say "mid-major". Probably Georgetown too. UMass. Desperate programs will begin to do desperate things.

[thefish7]

TAS (and whomever else for that matter) - Home now, so I can type normally.

You hit the nail entirely on the head that the point is to bring in programs that offer more average profit than the average profit in your conference among current schools. Just adding revenue doesn't make you any better, it has to be profit. It also needs to be sustainable. This article http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...nnbin&hpt=Sbin claims that the Big Ten pays out $22M a year in revenues... So the question is, will adding a given team increase that or not.

Regarding profitability, I think Rutgers is actually a good example of a potentially bad team to add to your conference. To me, saying that Rutgers captures the NY market is a little like saying Butler captures the Indianapolis market (it may now actually, but prior to Championship appearance they just aren't all that well supported). I just don't think that Rutgers football is that big a of a deal to the NY market. This, by the way, is why I think Bradley is fairly more attractive than we tend to give it credit for, Peoria's not a huge market, but Bradley pretty much dominates it and has a loyal fanbase that buys tickets and watches TV.

Regarding sustainability, I think 16 teams puts you in a tough position. For the first couple of years you may actually increase viewership on the BTN and increase your ratings... But let's say you did at Rutgers, and they turned into the football doormat in your conference. How many people will keep tuning in to watch the Northwestern-Rutgers game. Also, you run into real problems with schedule balance that will start ticking off your member programs. A bad draw might affect your rankings and postseason in either of the major sports. The Big East is a good example for how quickly programs become dissatisfied when a conference is very large (as is the A10 for that matter). 12-team conferences such as the ACC, SEC, and B12 appear to be pretty stable and quite successful.

To me, for the Big Ten, Notre Dame is the obvious target -- huge football money, good academics, good other sports. If you can get them to see past their independence they can add a lot. Syracuse and Pitt probably also... But enough for a 16 team conference? You start playing with fire quick... And how do you keep everyone happy?

I think, an every bit as likely an outcome could come out like this (not necessarily in order):

1. B10 adds Notre Dame.

2. Pac 10 adds BYU and Utah St

3. The Big East football schools also look to get their football championship and add 4 football programs. Either Nova or G'Town could try to make the jump to FBS, or you could add the likes of Memphis, UCF, Temple, Miami (OH) -- or whatever, a lot of schools (Florida Atlantic, FIU, Tulane) could fit here that are "beneath the Big East" but the BE is the weakest power conference in terms of football and won't get the pick of best programs I don't think.

4. 20 teams is kind of a ridiculous in a conference that is already considered too large by some of it's members (or the football members didn't worry about the Big East and just struck out on their own), so the Big East non-football schools are kind of left out of the mix, which releases Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, and DePaul, with Georgetown and Villanova out there in the case they choose not to try to put in FCS.

5. Let's say Georgetown and Nova did not decide to make the FBS jump, and will leave the Big East as we know it. They form an "east coast basketball power conference" including G'Town, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, St. Joe's, URI, UMass, GWU, George Mason, ODU, and/or VCU.. Poaching the best eastern programs from the A10 and CAA. This conference easily gets 3-5 teams in the tourney each year.

6. Then a "midwestern basketball power conference" can form including western remnants of the A10 and Big East-- Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, SLU, Xavier, Butler, Bradley, Creighton, Wichita St, and then maybe Drake or Evansville or both-- or another good basketball program at a school that isn't interested in football. My research indicates, btw, that UE is better supported than we ever give it credit for, and their actions indicate they want no part of a return to D3, as far as I'm concerned. This conference, btw, contains a bunch of good basketball markets and uses that clout to sign a major broadcasting deal with Comcast who operates in those markets and doesn't have such a contract anywhere. This conference also usually sends 3-5 teams to the tourney every year.

7. The remainder of the MVC focuses their efforts on getting into the FBS. Remaining, you have, illinois st, Indiana St, UNI, Missouri St, and SIU. Since the Big East just had its way with the CUSA you have some interested schools that work with you to form a good basketball conference (with weaker football) by attracting the likes of Western Kentucky, Tulsa, UTEP, SMU, Rice, Houston, UAB.

It's a huge bunch of changes, but you end up with two very interesting new conferences focused on non-football sports. Excellent in basketball and soccer, and if they're smart they may work to add Lacrosse and Hockey programs and stake a claim in those up-and-coming college sports. The football interested portion of the MVC ends up more interested in football and at least as competitive as the CUSA or MAC is now and quite a bit better in basketball. In a lot of ways, I struggle to see how the above isn't quite a bit better for almost every program involved.

[SFP]

thefish7 you have part of the story right IMO. I believe thought that the ACC, SEC, Big X and Pac X will want to grow quickly to 16 teams each, which will open the doors for some BCS schools to left out and probably form another conference with the likes of TCU, Boise State and others. I'd expect to see 3 other decent regional football conferences form and expand along with as you stated an east coast and mid-west basketball power schools. We do need to hope that there will be a split between the Big East with Georgetown and Villanova and that they will not try to poach Butler and Xavier.

[TheAsianSensation]

T
5. Let's say Georgetown and Nova did not decide to make the FBS jump, and will leave the Big East as we know it. They form an "east coast basketball power conference" including G'Town, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, St. Joe's, URI, UMass, GWU, George Mason, ODU, and/or VCU.. Poaching the best eastern programs from the A10 and CAA. This conference easily gets 3-5 teams in the tourney each year.

As for your steps, I think this is the one I don't quite agree with. I think the likes of G'town, Nova, Provi, SHU, and St John's would rather stick with Marquette and DePaul and nab the Ohio schools (Xavier, Dayton) and a couple others rather than nabbing, say, VCU. Plus, with G'town, they won't take ODU because they infringe on their market. Technically St Joe's infringes on Nova's too.

And most importantly, the Big East castoffs will realize that if they don't purge the A-10 harder, the A-10 can do exactly what you described in step 6 and be on par with the conference formed in step 5. They don't want to be on par. They want to be the best of the best.

Regarding profitability, I think Rutgers is actually a good example of a potentially bad team to add to your conference. To me, saying that Rutgers captures the NY market is a little like saying Butler captures the Indianapolis market (it may now actually, but prior to Championship appearance they just aren't all that well supported). I just don't think that Rutgers football is that big a of a deal to the NY market. This, by the way, is why I think Bradley is fairly more attractive than we tend to give it credit for, Peoria's not a huge market, but Bradley pretty much dominates it and has a loyal fanbase that buys tickets and watches TV.

The thing is, the Rutgers market is so big (New Jersey/New York) that you don't have to dominate it to profit from it.