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Conference Realignment
- Thread starter thefish7
- Start date
My guess would be UCONN or maybe if lucky Boston College for a huge TV deal. Syracuse is closer to New England then NY metro area. If the Big X cannot get UT they can always try to pry away Pitt or WVU. On another note the ACC will not be going anywhere. They are a predominant basketball conference but the football programs are doing well. I'd have to believe though that they will fend off any conference realignment pretty well.
Now what will come out of this which maybe good for BU, or not, are three other basketball conferences that will make the jump to a mega league. I would be that the TV deals being made are for football and a basketball deal would have to factor in more teams. That is more of a reality right now. Imagine the PR backlash on the BCS boys if they try to completely wipe away the mid-maors. Americans are sport traditionalists by nature and the TV guys would not want to upset a decent percentage of the basketball fans.
Basketball will play by a different set of rules then football.
Yeah, well, who cares what they think!
I know it's all about greed and every last penny they can steal, but you would think they make a good profit as things stand now. Plus the best postseason sporting tournament in the world will be blown up to satisfy their own egos.
What a shame!
Yeah, well, who cares what they think!
I know it's all about greed and every last penny they can steal, but you would think they make a good profit as things stand now. Plus the best postseason sporting tournament in the world will be blown up to satisfy their own egos.
What a shame!
What these guys are trying to do does not even come close to the greed that Goldman Sachs and the other big financial institutions has displayed. Talk about blowing up an economy to satisfy their pocketbook!
Until our society starts changing or going back to certain moral values this type of behavior is inevitable.
TheAsianSensation
New member
The more and more I look at it, the more and more I'm starting to think everyone BUT the Valley does some shuffling.
If the Big East splits, they'll just poach the A-10 and Butler and not take a Valley school.
Everyone else shifts, but the MVC stays - and that's bad, because the MVC would definitely end up in the lower level of college athletics in that scenario.
If the Big East splits, they'll just poach the A-10 and Butler and not take a Valley school.
Everyone else shifts, but the MVC stays - and that's bad, because the MVC would definitely end up in the lower level of college athletics in that scenario.
That is exactly what I'm afraid of. If you listen to Elgin he believes or maybe his job believes that the MVC is in a great overall position for any type of realignment. I just hope our administration is ready and is starting to position ourselves for the inevitable. I do not feel like we are a lock regardless of anyone says of being a part of a spin-off of the Big East. If they decide to only form one conference of the likes of DePaul, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette we could be outside looking in. Our best chance would be if they decided to form two large divisions.
houstontxbrave
New member
Personally I dont think the MVC will stay as is simply because one or more of the Valleys Football playing members is going to make a move. UNI, SIU, ISU or Missouri State are not going to sit around if they get an offer to upgrade into a better football conference.
I have been saying I really hope the Valley is being proactive and has a long range plan. But even if they do, there isnt much they can do to be eating at the big boys table when it comes to basketball. A conference like the Valley will be a footnote in a few years with all this upcoming potential movement.
TheAsianSensation
New member
Projecting out what a Big East fallout could look like:
12 teams:
East - Providence, Georgetown, Seton Hall, St John's, Villanova, Temple
West - Dayton, Xavier, Marquette, DePaul, St Louis, Butler
No way any MVC school penetrates that.
16 teams:
Rhode Island, Charlotte, St Joseph's feel like they'd be involved. After those 3, then it's Creighton, Wichita, and Bradley, along with the option of poaching a CAA school or settling for a George Washington or St Bonaventure. Bradley being within the borders and Creighton and Wichita being too far out west may save us.
14 teams:
Not an unheard of option. Rhode Island and St Joe's are added.
Hmm.
TheAsianSensation
New member
Also, watch the CAA in all this. They have really good FCS programs. They can poach the A-10 if the A-10 runs into trouble.
TheAsianSensation
New member
And here's the doomsday scenario:
The A-10 chooses to add Creighton and Wichita but not Bradley
The football members choose to break off elsewhere (IlSU, InSU, MSU, SIU, UNI, let's throw Drake in for funsies)
Evansville chooses to drop to D3 (it's been rumored)
Bradley is all alone and conferenceless.
The only play would be a Horizon League that loses Butler (to the A-10), Valpo (to footblal) and Youngstown St (to football).
Bradley
Loyola(Chi)
Illinois-Chicago
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Wright St
Cleveland St
Detroit
Oakland
IUPUI
And the scary thing? There's almost nothing Bradley could do about those chain of events above. It could be our fate.
The A-10 chooses to add Creighton and Wichita but not Bradley
The football members choose to break off elsewhere (IlSU, InSU, MSU, SIU, UNI, let's throw Drake in for funsies)
Evansville chooses to drop to D3 (it's been rumored)
Bradley is all alone and conferenceless.
The only play would be a Horizon League that loses Butler (to the A-10), Valpo (to footblal) and Youngstown St (to football).
Bradley
Loyola(Chi)
Illinois-Chicago
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Wright St
Cleveland St
Detroit
Oakland
IUPUI
And the scary thing? There's almost nothing Bradley could do about those chain of events above. It could be our fate.
I totally understand the reasons for a football conference to go to 12 teams. Im still not convinced why expanding beyond that really necessarily improve profitability for individual teams in the conference. Because of this I don't really see the megadoom others do. If your six bcs conferences all go to 12 football programs you're talking about those conferences adding a total of 7 teams to the bcs system (1 for b10, 2 for pac10, and 4 for the big east). I think that same process could also "output" eight non-bball teams from the big east. I haven't seen a well thought out business case for 4 super mega dootball conferences of ~20 teams.
TheAsianSensation
New member
The mathematical key is adding a market which provides a greater revenue than the current average revenue brought by each program. Using Rutgers as a crude example, bringing along the New York market (the Big 10 network, etc) will increase the average revenue brought by each program, therefore increasing revenue for each program.
So, in theory, if you select the right programs, you can keep adding and adding forever, making more money while doing so.
squirrelgotdead
New member
I read a study about the economics of the Big East going to 16 teams that broke down the individual winners and losers financially.
The biggest loser: Syracuse is losing over $2.5 million in revenue every year with the bloated conference.
The biggest winner: Cincinnati's football profits have nearly doubled and increased revenues overall have been close to net $3 million. However, most of their profits are being committed to facilities as part of their obligation to universal upgrades to be added to the Big East.
But the reason why a 64-team elite division of college athletics could be forthcoming is this. . .$$$.
You can't think of it in terms of what dollars are lost upfront by jeopardizing the NCAA Tournament. Because that will be moot when football profits double and other sports profits like baseball increase exponentially. Simply by cutting FBS football nearly in half, you take half the competition out of the equation. While yes that takes part of the market away, you increase marketability and profits by brand.
Football controls everything. Some schools football budgets alone are 4-5 times larger than some schools overall athletic budgets.
Lol I love iPhone typos. "dootball" -- maybe that can help us limit the confusion with soccer.
I totally get what you're saying, Tas, but my point is I haven't seen a business case that convinced me that there was profit as opposed to just revenue. Im too lazy to type all the downsides i see in megaconferences on the phone... But when I get home I'll try to post something coherent.
I totally get what you're saying, Tas, but my point is I haven't seen a business case that convinced me that there was profit as opposed to just revenue. Im too lazy to type all the downsides i see in megaconferences on the phone... But when I get home I'll try to post something coherent.
squirrelgotdead
New member
Well let me start off then.
The reason a playoff in football doesn't happen now is because the bowls are profitable for pretty much everyone and everyone has a seat. The problem with a playoff is it drastically reduces the participation rate and institutional revenue. But all FBS NCAA conferences would demand and likely have to be given a seat. While the event would likely be extremely profitable, universally revenues would be down.
If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams. . .3 other leagues likely do exactly the same thing. Why? Concentration of power and brand.
By doing so, instead of TV being divvied up hundreds of ways, these 64 teams will have the airwaves to themselves. Sure, everyone else will likely continue to have TV coverage and audience. But the "Big 3" + ESPN and Fox will not be involved in anything off-brand.
Those 64 teams go on their own, create their own organization, they can not only put together an insanely profitable football playoff, they can eliminate all riffraff and debate over who should or should not be included.
Basketball. . .because there won't be cupcake buy games. . .nearly every game will pit top 50 teams against one another. The talent will mostly migrate entirely to that level. That will increase profits exponentially for basketball. They can also run a 16-team playoff that makes more money for ALL members then the 64-team NCAA.
Baseball becomes profitable because it will become a much clearer scouting tool for MLB as TV coverage will become more prevalent and increase exposure. And again the talent increases because it all migrates to this level.
The reason a playoff in football doesn't happen now is because the bowls are profitable for pretty much everyone and everyone has a seat. The problem with a playoff is it drastically reduces the participation rate and institutional revenue. But all FBS NCAA conferences would demand and likely have to be given a seat. While the event would likely be extremely profitable, universally revenues would be down.
If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams. . .3 other leagues likely do exactly the same thing. Why? Concentration of power and brand.
By doing so, instead of TV being divvied up hundreds of ways, these 64 teams will have the airwaves to themselves. Sure, everyone else will likely continue to have TV coverage and audience. But the "Big 3" + ESPN and Fox will not be involved in anything off-brand.
Those 64 teams go on their own, create their own organization, they can not only put together an insanely profitable football playoff, they can eliminate all riffraff and debate over who should or should not be included.
Basketball. . .because there won't be cupcake buy games. . .nearly every game will pit top 50 teams against one another. The talent will mostly migrate entirely to that level. That will increase profits exponentially for basketball. They can also run a 16-team playoff that makes more money for ALL members then the 64-team NCAA.
Baseball becomes profitable because it will become a much clearer scouting tool for MLB as TV coverage will become more prevalent and increase exposure. And again the talent increases because it all migrates to this level.
TheAsianSensation
New member
I think it's worth mentioning in basketball that the 64-team organization would likely become, say, 80. I can't see a deal where the likes of Villanova, Georgetown, and a couple other basketball-only heavy hitters are left behind. That's leaving a LOT of money on the table (D.C. area, Philly, NYC with St John's, Chicago area with DePaul even).
The other white elephant in the room worth discussing is lacrosse and hockey, the other 2 sports that I think are big enough to warrant special consideration when determining a split.
Lacrosse would be played by about 13-14 members of a split. Hockey would be played by about 8-9 members of a split. Not sure if that's enough. In addition, stalwarths in both sports would be left behind. Sure, you could get a few to join for that sport only, or they could demand to be included for all sports. Some of the negotiating here could get messy.
Other sports aren't big enough to warrant consideration. Some will be played by all member schools, other sports only played by a few. Won't matter.
The other white elephant in the room worth discussing is lacrosse and hockey, the other 2 sports that I think are big enough to warrant special consideration when determining a split.
Lacrosse would be played by about 13-14 members of a split. Hockey would be played by about 8-9 members of a split. Not sure if that's enough. In addition, stalwarths in both sports would be left behind. Sure, you could get a few to join for that sport only, or they could demand to be included for all sports. Some of the negotiating here could get messy.
Other sports aren't big enough to warrant consideration. Some will be played by all member schools, other sports only played by a few. Won't matter.
There's is no way that John Hopkins or Princeton would be left off of any lacrosse league, PERIOD!
I also believe basketball would have to be treated differently then football and there is no way Georgetown, Villanova would be left off any reorganization. With that said I'm betting that there will be 4 Football Conferences with 16 teams comprising of these geographical logical locations with their hope of also controlling basketball:
ACC - needs 2 more and will absorb them from the Big East football teams
SEC - needs 2 more and a Texas school and Louisville may make sense
Big X - Needs 5 schools will be fighting for Syracuse and Texas
Pac X - needs 6 The 2 Utah schools are a lock and throw in Nebraska, Colorado
You still have a few schools being courted hard ie Kansas, Oklahoma and perhaps a school or two from those conferences changing affiliations. There will be a few schools left out which then will go into panic mode and try to start another competative league ie Cincy, S. Florida, Iowa State and that is where the 2nd flood of realignments happen at the mid-major level. BU at that time better be aligned with a power basketball conference that consist of 16 teams which spreads from the east coast to the mid-west. There will also be a west-coast power basketball conference which I expect to see Gonzaga be a part of.
I also believe basketball would have to be treated differently then football and there is no way Georgetown, Villanova would be left off any reorganization. With that said I'm betting that there will be 4 Football Conferences with 16 teams comprising of these geographical logical locations with their hope of also controlling basketball:
ACC - needs 2 more and will absorb them from the Big East football teams
SEC - needs 2 more and a Texas school and Louisville may make sense
Big X - Needs 5 schools will be fighting for Syracuse and Texas
Pac X - needs 6 The 2 Utah schools are a lock and throw in Nebraska, Colorado
You still have a few schools being courted hard ie Kansas, Oklahoma and perhaps a school or two from those conferences changing affiliations. There will be a few schools left out which then will go into panic mode and try to start another competative league ie Cincy, S. Florida, Iowa State and that is where the 2nd flood of realignments happen at the mid-major level. BU at that time better be aligned with a power basketball conference that consist of 16 teams which spreads from the east coast to the mid-west. There will also be a west-coast power basketball conference which I expect to see Gonzaga be a part of.
squirrelgotdead
New member
I disagree that Georgetown or Villanova will have to be part of any re-organization.
Football controls everything. I can not stress that enough. Basketball controls nothing, or at best very little or controls the economy of a very small handful of schools. . .Bradley would be in that pool along with the likes of Georgetown and Villanova.
If there's a split, it could happen by 1 of 3 ways, IMO.
1) NCAA-initiated. The NCAA could handle this in a variety of ways. And each of those I could provide a dissertation on. But I want to break it down to the lowest common denominator. This could go either way for Valley schools, IMO. Without FBS football we could be on the wrong side of the divide. However, if concessions are made for basketball and the split is close to including 40-60% of DI then they would be on the right side.
2) Modest wave of expansion and/or separation. . .the 6 BCS conferences expand and absorb the biggest threats (such as BYU, Utah, UNLV etc). The NCAA could opt to recognize them as the new FBS, or possibly the BCS goes off and creates its own organization. This would be the most flexible option for affiliate basketball schools.
3) The 64-team Major College Association. If this doomsday scenario is indeed the end game. . .those schools are not going to offer any consolation prizes for those outside the bubble. This is where it gets real up in here. Football is king. No one will want to be left out, most likely, but those who are for sure in won't be looking out for anyone's interest but their own.
Where Bradley really has its problem is its total lack of football. Georgetown and Villanova, for instance, if threatened with this reality, could bite the bullet and commit to making the move. In scenario 3, if the Big East is to survive they will almost have to. But if they do not want to commit, the other schools will not hesitate to exclude them. The Big East members won't be sticking around long enough to support them, IMO.
The other thing is that could make things easier on everybody is the NCAA gets out of the football business altogether. The institutions could still do the football thing, but under a completely different umbrella and organization. That would create some flexibility in what schools could do.
Football controls everything. I can not stress that enough. Basketball controls nothing, or at best very little or controls the economy of a very small handful of schools. . .Bradley would be in that pool along with the likes of Georgetown and Villanova.
If there's a split, it could happen by 1 of 3 ways, IMO.
1) NCAA-initiated. The NCAA could handle this in a variety of ways. And each of those I could provide a dissertation on. But I want to break it down to the lowest common denominator. This could go either way for Valley schools, IMO. Without FBS football we could be on the wrong side of the divide. However, if concessions are made for basketball and the split is close to including 40-60% of DI then they would be on the right side.
2) Modest wave of expansion and/or separation. . .the 6 BCS conferences expand and absorb the biggest threats (such as BYU, Utah, UNLV etc). The NCAA could opt to recognize them as the new FBS, or possibly the BCS goes off and creates its own organization. This would be the most flexible option for affiliate basketball schools.
3) The 64-team Major College Association. If this doomsday scenario is indeed the end game. . .those schools are not going to offer any consolation prizes for those outside the bubble. This is where it gets real up in here. Football is king. No one will want to be left out, most likely, but those who are for sure in won't be looking out for anyone's interest but their own.
Where Bradley really has its problem is its total lack of football. Georgetown and Villanova, for instance, if threatened with this reality, could bite the bullet and commit to making the move. In scenario 3, if the Big East is to survive they will almost have to. But if they do not want to commit, the other schools will not hesitate to exclude them. The Big East members won't be sticking around long enough to support them, IMO.
The other thing is that could make things easier on everybody is the NCAA gets out of the football business altogether. The institutions could still do the football thing, but under a completely different umbrella and organization. That would create some flexibility in what schools could do.
squirrelgotdead
New member
If there is a new organization built altogether apart from the NCAA, there will be 3 sports on the men's side: Football, basketball, and baseball. Possibly hockey and soccer. But the women's side will still need to meet Title IX requirements and football will still distort the numbers. And schools could still compete at the highest level of the NCAA in whatever sport since it isn't sanctioned by the new association.
squirrelgotdead We all are on the same belief that football is completely a different monster then the rest of the sports.
Basketball though is still played at a high level in small schools and the fan base would revolt if there is a huge exclusion from the ability to participate at the top. Who knows really what will happen. Maybe they could create a system like the English Premier League.
Basketball though is still played at a high level in small schools and the fan base would revolt if there is a huge exclusion from the ability to participate at the top. Who knows really what will happen. Maybe they could create a system like the English Premier League.