Expansion

[houstontxbrave]

To me all this is doing is swallowing up the NIT and putting lipstick on those 32 teams by now saying they are NCAA tourney teams.

This has everything to do with more BCS schools. The more BCS schools who play the more eyeballs for ESPN, dont kid yourself this has everything to do with ESPN, and more eyeballs means more advertising dollars.

This thing generates a ton of money now, more games more dollars.

32 auto bids

Leaving 64 at large.

73 BCS total schools - the 6 auto bids leaving 67 BCS schools.

Virtually any BCS who can get to .500 will be in the tourney. This also brings up why ever would any BCS ever knowingly schedule a non BCS ever again?

They have not eliminated non BCS but this is doing non BCS no favors. You might get a few more in the tourney who will now have to play more games but the overall % of BCS in the tourney and likely not having to play any additional games will be increased bigtime.

This has nothing to do with WSU getting an atlarge it has to do with validating the ability to invite UCONN, Arizona, USC or Illinois. Just a huge BCS ploy.

[TheAsianSensation]

Frankly, I'm not sure how a selection committee would handle 96 teams, and I'd hesitate to say that the power conference teams will benefit the most from it. We won't know until we actually see a field.

[RedSoxDSM]

TAS - Since you are the resident bracketologist, if this year's field had been expanded to 96, who would you have added, assuming the selection criteria for the next 31 at large teams is the same as it was for the first 34?

[SaintLouBrave22]

Frankly, I'm not sure how a selection committee would handle 96 teams, and I'd hesitate to say that the power conference teams will benefit the most from it. We won't know until we actually see a field.

Thats BS...


They will now try to justify inviting 10-12 Big East teams and 10 ACC teams and blah blah blah...


Everything is about the money and making the BCS happy...


Frankly its just garbage because I could care less about watching the 9th Big East team face the 7th ACC team in the first round...

[TheAsianSensation]

TAS - Since you are the resident bracketologist, if this year's field had been expanded to 96, who would you have added, assuming the selection criteria for the next 31 at large teams is the same as it was for the first 34?

I did this Selection Sunday, using my own projections:

1) Kansas (32-2), Kentucky (32-2), Syracuse (28-4), Duke (29-5)
2) West Virginia (27-6), Kansas St (25-7), Ohio St (27-7), Villanova (24-7)
3) New Mexico (29-4), Pittsburgh (24-8 ), Purdue (27-5), Temple (29-5)
4) Georgetown (23-10), Baylor (24-7), Tennessee (25-8 ), Wisconsin (23-8 )
5) Michigan St (24-8 ), Maryland (22-8 ), Vanderbilt (23-8 ), Texas A&M (22-9)
6) Butler (28-4), BYU (28-5), Richmond (26-8 ), Northern Iowa (28-4)
7) Xavier (24-8 ), Gonzaga (25-6), Texas (24-9), Marquette (22-11)
8 )San Diego St (23-8 ), Missouri (22-10), Clemson (21-10), Louisville (20-12)
9) Florida St (22-9), Oklahoma St (22-10), Old Dominion (26-8 ), Notre Dame (23-11)
10) St Mary's (25-5), Georgia Tech (21-12), Cornell (25-4), UNLV (24-8 )
11) Wake Forest (19-10), Washington (23-9), UTEP (26-6), California (23-10)
12) Siena (27-6), Utah St (26-7), Minnesota (21-13), Illinois (19-14)
13) Virginia Tech (23-8 ), Mississippi St (23-10), Florida (21-12), Seton Hall (19-12)
14) Arizona St (22-10), Mississippi (21-10), Wichita St (24-9), Rhode Island (23-9)
15) Memphis (23-9), New Mexico St (21-11), Kent St (22-9), UAB (23-8 )
16) Connecticut (17-15), Dayton (20-12), Murray St (28-4), William & Mary (21-10)
17) Cincinnati (18-15), Oakland (24-8 ), Wofford (25-8 ), St Louis (19-11)
18 )Northeastern (20-10), South Florida (20-12), Charlotte (19-12), Arizona (16-15)
19) Sam Houston St (21-7), Marshall (20-9), Houston (18-15), Illinois St (22-10)
20) Fairfield (22-10), Wright St (20-12), VCU (22-9), Northwestern (20-13)
21) Tulsa (22-11), Nevada (19-12), North Carolina (16-16), Creighton (16-15)
22) Portland (19-10), UC-Santa Barbara (19-9), Montana (20-9), Morgan St (27-9)
23) Ohio (20-14), North Texas (22-8 ), Vermont (25-9), Robert Morris (23-11)
24) East Tennessee St (19-14), Lehigh (22-10), Winthrop (17-13), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15)


Last 4 in
Nevada
North Carolina
Creighton
Portland (team #85 on S-Curve)

Last 4 out
St John's
Akron
Green Bay
Louisiana Tech


Break it down!

Big East 12
ACC 8
Big 12 7
Big 10 7
A-10 7
CUSA 6
SEC 6
MWC 4
MVC 4
CAA 4
Pac 10 4
WCC 3
WAC 3
Horizon 2
MAAC 2
MAC 2

By percentage:
Big East 75% of league gets in
ACC 67% of league gets in
Big 10 63% of league gets in
Big 12 58% of league gets in
SEC 50% of league gets in
A-10 50% of league gets in
CUSA 50% of league gets in
MWC 44% of league gets in
Pac 10 40% of league gets in
MVC 40% of league gets in
WCC 38% of league gets in
WAC 33% of league gets in

Notice 2 things:

1) There's a spike at the top with the Big East, but the top ranked conference should expect to get 75%. It sounds worse saying "12 of 16" than "9 of 12", but those are EQUIVALENT. Remember that about the Big East specifically.
2) The best non-power conferences make big, big headway. 40% of the Valley. Half of the A-10 and CUSA. Look at those percentages.


Personally, I'm ok with those distributions. 1 top conference getting 75%. Two other top conferences getting over 60%. That's not as terrible as it sounds, actually.

[SaintLouBrave22]

Will believe it when I see it...


I think its much more likely that this happens:


Big East 12
ACC 10
Big 12 9
Big 10 8
SEC 7
A-10 7
Pac 10 5
CUSA 5
MWC 4
MVC 4
CAA 3
WCC 3
WAC 2
Horizon 1
MAAC 1
MAC 1

[TheAsianSensation]

Will believe it when I see it...


I think its much more likely that this happens:

Well, we won't know, so I agree to disagree and we'll see.

One caveat: The NIT selection committee is bat**** insane, and using their seedings, those seeds won't translate. Texas Tech, being a 5 seed in the NIT, isn't making the 96 team NCAA field, for example. Do not trust the NIT selection committee.

[SaintLouBrave22]

Well, we won't know, so I agree to disagree and we'll see.

One caveat: The NIT selection committee is bat**** insane, and using their seedings, those seeds won't translate. Texas Tech, being a 5 seed in the NIT, isn't making the 96 team NCAA field, for example. Do not trust the NIT selection committee.

I can agree w/ you on that...


UNC being in was bad enough with 16 losses, but a 4...and no, I don't care that they made the championship game...


The other teams played 5 on 8 when they played them...

[houstontxbrave]

Well, we won't know, so I agree to disagree and we'll see.

One caveat: The NIT selection committee is bat**** insane, and using their seedings, those seeds won't translate. Texas Tech, being a 5 seed in the NIT, isn't making the 96 team NCAA field, for example. Do not trust the NIT selection committee.

Ill agree that because the name Texas Tech would not make the NCAA even expanded, but substitute Oklahoma for Texas Tech with the exact same resume/record and that name does get an NCAA invite. Eye balls eye balls, money, money.

Same goes for NC State, Arizona, USC, UCONN from this season. You are BCS and you are .500 or better you **** well will get heavy consideration, especially if you are Football known BCS.

Even in BCS the rules will be different. Mississippi would get less consideratiion then say UCLA if all things are equal.

[TheAsianSensation]

I think some are buying into conspriacy theories too much. I sense overexaggeration of the demise here, to be honest. It WILL be a demise, but not a catastrophic one.

edit: Until the Big 10 expands to 16 teams. THEN we have catastrophic results on our hand.

[SaintLouBrave22]

Same goes for NC State, Arizona, USC, UCONN from this season. You are BCS and you are .500 or better you **** well will get heavy consideration, especially if you are Football known BCS.

Don't even need to be .500 in conference which I think is ridiculous...


I honestly couldn't care less if you played Syracuse, Duke, WVU, Kansas, and KState every night...

As far as I am concerned you should NEVER get in with a record under .500...that alone says that if you cant finish over that mark in your conference, why should you be let in?


I don't care who the team is, I'd much rather take a 13-3 team from the Colonial or even an 11-5 than a 7-9 team from the ACC that lost in the first round of their tournament.

I am sorry, but just because you PLAYED Maryland and Duke that shouldn't give you a free pass if you don't BEAT them!

[SaintLouBrave22]

edit: Until the Big 10 expands to 16 teams. THEN we have catastrophic results on our hand.

I was just going to say, the more the BCS conferences expand and the larger they get, the more it screws the mids...


I think the only real thing the Valley can do to offset this is to expand themselves...


Add Butler and another team (not SLU) and it probably is looked in a better light because what have we learned over time...


That more teams in conference = greater chance for NCAA bids

[houstontxbrave]

I think some are buying into conspriacy theories too much. I sense overexaggeration of the demise here, to be honest. It WILL be a demise, but not a catastrophic one.

edit: Until the Big 10 expands to 16 teams. THEN we have catastrophic results on our hand.

Then why expand?

Drake is not going to bring eyes/money to the table but Oklahoma/USC/UCLA certainly will.

Bringing more BCS's to the tourney makes absolute sense if you are going to expand. That means more 7th,8th place BCS's not more 2/3rd non BCS's.

Conspriacy if you want, but I think it is pure reality.

[houstontxbrave]

edit: Until the Big 10 expands to 16 teams. THEN we have catastrophic results on our hand.

You are right and football is going to drive everything.

Parts of the conference USA... ie Houston, Memphis, Tulsa. Parts of Mountain West ie Utah, BYU, TCU are all ripe and ready to move elsewhere and they will have to to survive in this BCS driven world.

You and STL are 100% correct if the Valley is not proactive they will get left behind bigtime. But even being proactive might not save the Valley if the Big Tens, Big 12's and Pac 10's expand wildly.

And eventually the football playing schools in the Valley... SIU, Missouri State, ISU are going to want more and they are all ideal for the Sun Belt or some sort of suto Conference USA. I think if one leaps the others will follow. My guess is Missouri State would go for it first.

[TheAsianSensation]

Remember, this is the NCAA talking about wanting to expand, not the individual power conferences.

I don't think the NCAA cares who the extra 32 teams are. I think they feel they'll get the same revenue no matter who they are.



Back to that .500 conference record thing......2 things:

1) If a conference has a really big year, you're actually punishing it by having teams good enough that won't qualify. Yes, we all know about the mid-major injustices, but there can be power conference injustices too. Just because mid majors get screwed doesn't mean majors should get screwed too.

2) The Law of Unintended Consequences. If we set that rule, you're going to basically give a free pass to EVERY team that finishes at .500 or better to the NCAA tournament. All of a sudden, Virginia Tech and their flaky 10-6 mark get a free pass and gets them heralded. You know, VT's 5 opponents they played twice were the 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th best teams in the ACC? Several ACC members went 9-7 in league play, and their 9-7 was more impressive than VT's 10-6.

The point being, banning all sub-.500 teams actually means letting in every .500 team or better, which actually means MORE power conference teams get in.