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That's the way I see it. These 6 teams are competing for 3 available spots in the NCAA tourney...
Utah State
UTEP
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Florida
Illinois
Mississippi State is playing now, so they control their own destiny. The major question to be answered is whether the committee will reward dominant records by mid majors in conference play or mediocrity in a BCS league. After analyzing the profiles of all 6 of these teams, in my mind there is no doubt that Utah State and UTEP have far better profiles than the other 4 on this list. Thus I am going to assume that they get in, but would not be completely shocked if they do not. Mississippi State can then take the final spot with a win today. After careful consideration, it appears that Illinois has not done enough to warrant a bid, so the final spot should come down to Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, or Florida, and trying to differentiate between those 3 teams is next to impossible. But like I said, Mississippi State can make the choice easy by winning today.
I actually believe Utah State and UTEP should be ahead of at least 3 other teams that are going to get in, even though they probably should be more nervous than they likely are. These 3 teams are UNLV, Gonzaga, and Wake Forest. I could have thrown Notre Dame in there as well, but the way they have played recently probably places them ahead of these 3. Even though they will get in, these 3 teams may not get the seed they expect.
I also believe that many people will be surprised at the better than expected seeds that California and Missouri will get. I believe Missouri will likely be seeded better than Oklahoma State from the Big 12. In fact, overall the seeds from the Big 12 are likely to be better than many expect, and maybe I should have included Texas on this list too as a team that will be seeded better than many expect.
Utah State
UTEP
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Florida
Illinois
Mississippi State is playing now, so they control their own destiny. The major question to be answered is whether the committee will reward dominant records by mid majors in conference play or mediocrity in a BCS league. After analyzing the profiles of all 6 of these teams, in my mind there is no doubt that Utah State and UTEP have far better profiles than the other 4 on this list. Thus I am going to assume that they get in, but would not be completely shocked if they do not. Mississippi State can then take the final spot with a win today. After careful consideration, it appears that Illinois has not done enough to warrant a bid, so the final spot should come down to Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, or Florida, and trying to differentiate between those 3 teams is next to impossible. But like I said, Mississippi State can make the choice easy by winning today.
I actually believe Utah State and UTEP should be ahead of at least 3 other teams that are going to get in, even though they probably should be more nervous than they likely are. These 3 teams are UNLV, Gonzaga, and Wake Forest. I could have thrown Notre Dame in there as well, but the way they have played recently probably places them ahead of these 3. Even though they will get in, these 3 teams may not get the seed they expect.
I also believe that many people will be surprised at the better than expected seeds that California and Missouri will get. I believe Missouri will likely be seeded better than Oklahoma State from the Big 12. In fact, overall the seeds from the Big 12 are likely to be better than many expect, and maybe I should have included Texas on this list too as a team that will be seeded better than many expect.
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