Here come the upsets!

[Bravesfan]

Well the first major upset of Championship Week took place tonight as #14 Gonzaga fell to St. Mary's 81-62! Not a huge upset as much as the margin of victory. But after a few near misses over previous years it was quite obvious that St. Mary's was hungry this year to get over the hump by finally beating Gonzaga when it mattered. So congratulations to them and to the West Coast Conference as they will be at least the third non-BCS conference to claim multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament.

This game also means that the 20% chance of Wichita St. earning an at-large bid has now dropped to 10%. Now Butler can put the Shockers completely out of their misery later today by losing the Horizon Conference championship game and stealing a second bid for their conference.

[SFP]

I thought St. Mary's was going to the dance regardless of the outcome. West Coast Conference is probably getting stronger top to bottom. They deserve 2 bids.

[Da Coach]

I noticed the West Coast Conference tournament was being held at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, where Bradley played earlier this season (against OK State and Illinois). It's not unusual for conferences to hold their tournaments at a neutral site, but Las Vegas is quite a distance away from every one of the schools in the WCC.


Here are the schools in the WCC. The closest school to Las Vegas is Loyola Marymount- almost 300 miles away. Gonzaga is 1140 miles away.
Here are the driving distances from each WCC school to Las Vegas, accoding to Mapquest.com-
Gonzaga- Spokane, WA- 1140 miles
St. Mary's- Moraga, CA (near Oakland)- 560 miles
Portland- Portland, OR- 995 miles
Loyola-Marymount- LA, CA- 290 miles
USF- SF, CA- 570 miles
USD- San Diego, CA- 332 miles
Santa Clara- Santa Clara, CA- 535 miles
Pepperdine- Malibu, CA- 305 miles

[tornado]

well...here's my prediction.......
all those BCS teams that many think are on the outside looking at an NIT bid....
teams like Illinois, UConn, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Marquette, Notre Dame, Mizzou...
all of whom have either losing or mediocre conference records and even RPI's of MORE THAN twice what Barry Hinson's Missouri State etams had when they were excluded...

You watch...most if not all of these teams will swallow up the available at-large spots...
Last year there were so very few at large mid-majors...and this year will be no different....
Dayton has a Top-50 RPI & SOS, and they'll be left out, while Notre Dame has neither and they'll get in...book it.....I have never been wrong about this yet.....and I will relish and welcome it if I am wrong this year...

When the talking heads like Bilas and Digger note the horrid state of the BCS conferences, and examples like USC, UCLA, & UNC doing so poorly...they generalize to ALL of college basketball and say this...
"the at-large field is as bad as it has ever been in recent memory"...
In other words...just because the middle of the pack BCS guys are bad, then it means everyone is bad (without even bothering to note that FOUR MWC teams have RPI's under 50 & Wichita's RPI is 45, and the A-10 has FOUR teams whose RPI is under 40!!!)
So they volunteer to be the NCAA's mouthpiece to set the stage for those BAD BCS teams to get in anyway....using the excuse that there wasn't anyone else who was any more deserving!!

[Braves4Life]

well...here's my prediction.......
all those BCS teams that many think are on the outside looking at an NIT bid....
teams like Illinois, UConn, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Marquette, Notre Dame, Mizzou........You watch...most if not all of these teams will swallow up the available at-large spots........and I will relish and welcome it if I am wrong this year...

I hope and think you will be wrong this year tornado. I would be surprised if more than 25% of those teams get an at-large bid.

[TheAsianSensation]

I wouldn't lump Missou in with the rest of those teams, and I assume you mean Arizona St and not Arizona...

The problem with the A-10 this year is that they have good RPIs but some really terrible losses down the stretch. Both Dayton and URI have the computer numbers but can't stop losing. URI in particular.

As for the Mountain West, I bet they get their 4 teams in.

[SFP]

I noticed the West Coast Conference tournament was being held at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, where Bradley played earlier this season (against OK State and Illinois). It's not unusual for conferences to hold their tournaments at a neutral site, but Las Vegas is quite a distance away from every one of the schools in the WCC.


Here are the schools in the WCC. The closest school to Las Vegas is Loyola Marymount- almost 300 miles away. Gonzaga is 1140 miles away.
Here are the driving distances from each WCC school to Las Vegas, accoding to Mapquest.com-
Gonzaga- Spokane, WA- 1140 miles
St. Mary's- Moraga, CA (near Oakland)- 560 miles
Portland- Portland, OR- 995 miles
Loyola-Marymount- LA, CA- 290 miles
USF- SF, CA- 570 miles
USD- San Diego, CA- 332 miles
Santa Clara- Santa Clara, CA- 535 miles
Pepperdine- Malibu, CA- 305 miles

The difference is that air flights to Vegas are not expensive from any of those markets.

[Tulsa Brave]

well...here's my prediction.......
all those BCS teams that many think are on the outside looking at an NIT bid....
teams like Illinois, UConn, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Marquette, Notre Dame, Mizzou...
all of whom have either losing or mediocre conference records and even RPI's of MORE THAN twice what Barry Hinson's Missouri State etams had when they were excluded...

You watch...most if not all of these teams will swallow up the available at-large spots...
Last year there were so very few at large mid-majors...and this year will be no different....
Dayton has a Top-50 RPI & SOS, and they'll be left out, while Notre Dame has neither and they'll get in...book it.....I have never been wrong about this yet.....and I will relish and welcome it if I am wrong this year...

When the talking heads like Bilas and Digger note the horrid state of the BCS conferences, and examples like USC, UCLA, & UNC doing so poorly...they generalize to ALL of college basketball and say this...
"the at-large field is as bad as it has ever been in recent memory"...
In other words...just because the middle of the pack BCS guys are bad, then it means everyone is bad (without even bothering to note that FOUR MWC teams have RPI's under 50 & Wichita's RPI is 45, and the A-10 has FOUR teams whose RPI is under 40!!!)
So they volunteer to be the NCAA's mouthpiece to set the stage for those BAD BCS teams to get in anyway....using the excuse that there wasn't anyone else who was any more deserving!!

Dayton has zero chance of an at-large...they totally screwed up the last part of the season and have no one to blame but themselves. 8-8 in the A-10 and 3 games behind a St. Louis team that can't sniff an at-large leaves them way out...it's not even close. Wichita State will get an at-large long before Dayton will. Rhode Island and Charlotte shot themselves in the foot as well, so the A-10 is a 3-bid league unless someone else wins their tourney this week.

Notre Dame is just the opposite...they did everything right down the stretch and that will get them in.

Of course, Missouri will get in...that is a no brainer. Just look at their entire season and their record in the number one conference. Marquette at 11-7 in the Big East is good to go as well. Virginia Tech should be in as well. Florida is probably in. The rest on that list have lots of work to do this week, and Arizona can only get in by winning the Pac 10 tourney.

[Braves4Life]

The difference is that air flights to Vegas are not expensive from any of those markets.

True. But I bet (no pun intended) that their attendance was anemic this year. Anyone care to do the research to compare this year's attendance to past years?

[tornado]

I don't have a problem with Mizzou getting in, but chose them just for argument sake...
they are the 7th best RPI in their league, they have the 11th best SOS (they are actually next to last in the Big 12) in their conference, and they had an awful lot of Savannah States, Texas Pan Americans, Tennessee-Martins, UM-KCs, and Fairleigh Dickinsons on their non-conference schedule..
They lost to Oral Roberts, and their premier non-conference win is over Illinois!!

Seriously - if this was a mid-major, they'd be NIT...

[Braves4Life]

Notre Dame is just the opposite...they did everything right down the stretch and that will get them in........Virginia Tech should be in as well. Florida is probably in. The rest on that list have lots of work to do this week, and Arizona can only get in by winning the Pac 10 tourney.

I would be surprised if ND, VT, and UF get in. We'll see.........

[Bravesfan]

I don't have a problem with Mizzou getting in, but chose them just for argument sake...
they are the 7th best RPI in their league, they have the 11th best SOS (they are actually next to last in the Big 12) in their conference, and they had an awful lot of Savannah States, Texas Pan Americans, Tennessee-Martins, UM-KCs, and Fairleigh Dickinsons on their non-conference schedule..
They lost to Oral Roberts, and their premier non-conference win is over Illinois!!

Seriously - if this was a mid-major, they'd be NIT...

Couldn't agree with you more there! But they did more than enough within their own conference so Mizzou can get away with that awful non-conference schedule.

Also you were spot-on regarding Bilas and his "assessment" of the at-large bubble. Apparently the A-10 and MWC teams don't count as solid teams! Agreed 100% except with Dayton and Notre Dame. Dayton does not deserve an at-large bid, but Notre Dame beat two top 10 teams over the last two weeks and finished above .500 in the Big East, so I have no problem with them being in the NCAA Tournament.