TAS Bracketology 2/28

[Bravesfan]

Honestly - I think the NCAA committee has the field set with a couple contingency plans set up in case Wash wins, Miss St wins, NM St wins, and Minny wins.

With that in mind - I don't think they'll actually see UIUC's final record against the top 25 in the RPI.

I agree. The selection committee looked pretty relaxed when they showed them on CBS earlier in the day!

[Bravesfan]

SD St holding on to a win over UNLV. Both in?

I thought SDS was in after beating New Mexico last night. They just made it official today.

I also had UNLV in due to some solid wins this year. They beat then #16 Louisville, split against San Diego St. before tonight, won 2 out of 3 against BYU, and split the hard way against New Mexico winning in their place.

They do have a bad loss against a terrible USC team (at USC), and got swept by a mediocre Utah team. They also lost by 15 at home to then unranked Kansas St. But I think they have done more than enough by posting a 3-3 record against ranked teams at the time they played them.

So let's just say that the MWC is at the point where the Valley was in 2006. And they may stay there for awhile with the way their football programs are going. I wouldn't even be surprised if they become a possible seventh BCS conference the way they are going, though we'll see if they can sustain things for awhile first.

[MacabreMob]

*pop*

Utah St loses the WAC Tourney Title to NM St. Another bid stolen.

[pfunk880]

Jay Williams just argued that Illinois should be in over Utah State because they challenged themselves more with their wins over Wisconsin. Good grief.

[TheAsianSensation]

Jay Williams may be joining Hubert Davis and Digger Phelps on my do-not-pay-attention-to list.

[TheAsianSensation]

I also just want to point out I was ahead on the anti-Florida bandwagon a full 2 days before Lunardi and everyone else got there.

[Bravesfan]

*pop*

Utah St loses the WAC Tourney Title to NM St. Another bid stolen.

Oh boy! Now we got a free-for-all ready to go for 5 PM tomorrow! I have no clue now who will be kept out, but Illinois better hope they have some open dates at Assembly Hall next week!

[TheAsianSensation]

Lunardi has 5 teams for 2 spots: VT, Minny, MSU, Florida, UI in order.

I'd stick UTEP, Cal, maybe Utah St and UNLV, maybe Wake Forest on top of that list because I wouldn't be entirely confident if I were them. But I think I'm projecting them all in.

[cpacmel]

Lunardi has 5 teams for 2 spots: VT, Minny, MSU, Florida, UI in order.

He has UI ahead of Florida. And that is huge. Because if Miss State and Minny falter and falter badly, he can move Va Tech and UI into the last 2 spots.

I personally think Minnesota is IN regardless of what happens tomorrow. They have a better resume than UI and beat them head to head on the road too.

[Bravesfan]

Jay Williams just argued that Illinois should be in over Utah State because they challenged themselves more with their wins over Wisconsin. Good grief.

You know, this is where quanity sometimes needs to trump "quality". Utah St. may not have as many RPI top 50 wins as Illinois does, but they have one thing that Illinois does not. Consistency. When it takes 13 games against top 50 opponents to obtain the 5 top 50 wins, that tells me that while Illinois is capable of winning games in the NCAA Tournament, chances are they may not go very far.

Utah St. doesn't have a huge amount to go on, though they have a nice win against BYU. They have close losses to St. Mary's and NIT candidate Northeastern,and a two game sweep against Weber St., a team that came within one point of an NCAA appearance. But this is the classic mid-major team that while lacking in quality wins, will still go into the NCAA Tournament as a very dangerous team full of confidence (if they make it in). That's why this will be a very interesting "test case" for the committee to ponder tonight and tomorrow.

[Bravesfan]

Lunardi has 5 teams for 2 spots: VT, Minny, MSU, Florida, UI in order.

I'd stick UTEP, Cal, maybe Utah St and UNLV, maybe Wake Forest on top of that list because I wouldn't be entirely confident if I were them. But I think I'm projecting them all in.

If Utah St. makes it, that would swing the "balance of power" towards the non-BCS contigent this year by a 33-32 margin. That is if we get the 8 at-large bids from the five non-BCS conferences that I'm expecting.

Also interesting to see that no mid-majors/non-BCS teams are amongst Lunardi's last in/first out list this year, which is a rarity!

[Bravesfan]

He has UI ahead of Florida. And that is huge. Because if Miss State and Minny falter and falter badly, he can move Va Tech and UI into the last 2 spots.

I personally think Minnesota is IN regardless of what happens tomorrow. They have a better resume than UI and beat them head to head on the road too.

Plus Miss. St. has a resume even worse than Wichita State! No way they're in short of a conference championship. And personally I think Illinois has a much better resume than Florida's as well.

[TheAsianSensation]

I redid my board.

Next 4 in
Georgia Tech
UNLV
Wake Forest
UTEP

Last 4 in
California
Utah St
Mississippi St
Minnesota

Last 4 out
Virginia Tech
Illinois
Florida
Rhode Island

Next 4 out
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Mississippi
William & Mary

Off the board (in order)
Arizona St
Dayton
UAB
Memphis
Kent St

[TheAsianSensation]

Midwest Regional

@OklahomaCity
1) Kansas (32-2) vs. 16) Robert Morris (23-11)
8 )San Diego St (23-8 ) vs. 9) Notre Dame (23-11)

@Spokane
4) Tennessee (25-8 ) vs. 13) New Mexico St (21-11)
5) Maryland (22-8 ) vs. 12) Minnesota (21-12)

@NewOrleans
3) Purdue (27-5) vs. 14) Sam Houston St (21-7)
6) Richmond (26-7) vs. 11) Washington (23-9)

@Providence
2) Villanova (23-8 ) vs. 15) Vermont (25-9)
7) Gonzaga (25-6) vs. 10) UNLV (24-8 )

West Regional

@Jacksonville
1) Duke (28-5) vs. 16) East Tennessee St (19-14)
8 )Louisville (20-12) vs. 9) Old Dominion (26-8 )

@SanJose
4) Baylor (24-7) vs. 13) Oakland (24-8 )
5) Michigan St (24-8 ) vs. 12) Mississippi St (23-10)

@SanJose
3) New Mexico (29-4) vs. 14) UC-Santa Barbara (19-9)
6) Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. 11) Wake Forest (19-10)

@Buffalo
2) West Virginia (27-6) vs. 15) Ohio (20-14)
7) Xavier (24-8 ) vs. 10) Oklahoma St (22-10)

South Regional

@Buffalo
1) Syracuse (28-4) vs. 16) Winthrop (17-13)/Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15)
8 )Missouri (22-10) vs. 9) Florida St (22-9)

@Spokane
4) Wisconsin (23-8 ) vs. 13) Murray St (28-4)
5) Vanderbilt (23-8 ) vs. 12) Siena (27-6)

@Jacksonville
3) Temple (28-5) vs. 14) Montana (20-9)
6) Butler (28-4) vs. 11) UTEP (26-6)

@OklahomaCity
2) Kansas St (25-7) vs. 15) North Texas (22-8 )
7) Marquette (22-11) vs. 10) Georgia Tech (21-11)

East Regional

@Milwaukee
1) Kentucky (31-2) vs. 16) Lehigh (22-10)
8 )Clemson (21-10) vs. 9) St Mary's (25-5)

@NewOrleans
4) Georgetown (23-10) vs. 13) Wofford (25-8 )
5) Texas A&M (22-9) vs. 12) Utah St (26-7)


@Providence
3) Pittsburgh (24-8 ) vs. 14) Morgan St (27-9)
6) BYU (28-5) vs. 11) California (23-10)

@Milwaukee
2) Ohio St (26-7) vs. 15) Houston (18-15)
7) Texas (24-9) vs. 10) Cornell (25-4)



Procedural bumpin'
Oklahoma St from 9 to 10
St Mary's from 10 to 9



Things to pay attention to today:

Temple/Richmond: Temple is playing for that 3 seed. A loss and welcome Georgetown, improbably, to the 3 line, although they'd immediately get procedured to a 4 and it'd be Baylor to the 3 line

Duke/Georgia Tech: Duke will surrender their spot to WVU if they lose. This could be worth another seeding line to GT

Minnesota/Ohio St: Not sure if Minny can hang on with a loss. OSU is locked into their spot

Mississippi St/Kentucky: Not sure if MSU can hang on. in fact, they may be out with a loss, and I will project it that way. UK is locked in at their spot

[TheAsianSensation]

THE FINAL S-CURVE

1) Kansas (32-2), Kentucky (32-2), Syracuse (28-4), Duke (29-5)
2) West Virginia (27-6), Kansas St (25-7), Ohio St (27-7), Villanova (24-7)
3) New Mexico (29-4), Pittsburgh (24-8 ), Purdue (27-5), Temple (29-5)
4) Georgetown (23-10), Baylor (24-7), Tennessee (25-8 ), Wisconsin (23-8 )
5) Michigan St (24-8 ), Maryland (22-8 ), Vanderbilt (23-8 ), Texas A&M (22-9)
6) Butler (28-4), BYU (28-5), Richmond (26-8 ), Northern Iowa (28-4)
7) Xavier (24-8 ), Gonzaga (25-6), Texas (24-9), Marquette (22-11)
8 )San Diego St (23-8 ), Missouri (22-10), Clemson (21-10), Louisville (20-12)
9) Florida St (22-9), Oklahoma St (22-10), Old Dominion (26-8 ), Notre Dame (23-11)
10) St Mary's (25-5), Georgia Tech (21-12), Cornell (25-4), UNLV (24-8 )
11) Wake Forest (19-10), Washington (23-9), UTEP (26-6), California (23-10)
12) Siena (27-6), Utah St (26-7), Minnesota (21-13), Illinois (19-14)
13) New Mexico St (21-11), Murray St (28-4), Oakland (24-8 ), Wofford (25-8 )
14) Sam Houston St (21-7), UC-Santa Barbara (19-9), Montana (20-9), Morgan St (27-9)
15) Houston (18-15), Ohio (20-14), North Texas (22-8 ), Vermont (25-9)
16) Robert Morris (23-11), East Tennessee St (19-14), Lehigh (22-10), Winthrop (17-13), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15)

Next 4 in
Georgia Tech
UNLV
Wake Forest
UTEP

Last 4 in
California
Utah St
Minnesota
Illinois

Last 4 out
Mississippi St
Virginia Tech
Florida
Rhode Island

Next 4 out
Wichita St
Seton Hall
Mississippi
William & Mary

Off the board (in order)
Arizona St
Dayton
UAB
Memphis
Kent St