TAS Bracketology 2/28

[Bravesfan]

CBS is projecting Illinois, Minnesota, UTEP and Virginia Tech as the last four in, with the loser of the Pac-10 championship game, Seton Hall, Mississippi St. and Mississippi as the first four out.

Now with all of the upsets going on today I was projecting 7 teams out of the ACC, 8 out of the Big East, 7 out of the Big 12, 6 out of the Big Ten, 2 out of the Pac Ten and 4 out of the SEC for a total of 34 teams. Adding in the 25 other auto-bids, that would leave 6 at-larges from non-BCS conferences. Earlier today though I had 7, with 3 at-large bids from the MWC, 2 from the A-10, and 1 each from the WCC and CUSA. Obviously either one of those teams won't make it, or one BCS team of the 34 won't make it, which does not bode well for Illinois at all.

However when taking into consideration CBS's projections, they appear to only have 31 teams out of the BCS contigent, which leads me to wonder which additional two mid-majors will be chosen (UTEP not included). Or are there two other BCS teams I'm missing. I'm guessing they have Florida in for sure, and maybe even S. Florida? Who knows, but I need to check into CBS's website to see who. But I would have a tough time taking a ninth team out of the Big East!

[TheAsianSensation]

The mitigating factor is this:

Compare Illinois' wins vs. the other best wins of the other bubble teams. In the end, the committee likes to take the teams with the best wins, and UI has that.

[chitown fanatic]

you laso have to consider they will have at least 3 more losses than any other bubble squad. 5 good wins does not a season make...they are now 5-9 against top 100 and would be highest rpi team ever taken if selected. Too many others(miss st, ga tech, houston) did more this weekend. losing 6 of 8 regardless of competition can't be ignored. big ten's not getting 6 and minny just ate up the 5th bid. WI is not mich st or purdue, and that one road win at WI won't be enough when there are 14 L's on the card.

[MacabreMob]

If Utah St wins tonight - they will bounce Vandy out of the Top 25 of the RPI. That would leave UIUC with only 2 wins of teams in the Top 25 RPI (both to Wisky).

If Utah St loses tonight - it squeezes the bubble, maybe bursting someone on the edge... like UIUC.

[TheAsianSensation]

Well, in the weakest bubble year of all time, it would only make sense for the worst RPI ever for an at-large team to get in, right?

[MacabreMob]

Well, in the weakest bubble year of all time, it would only make sense for the worst RPI ever for an at-large team to get in, right?

Yes.

Under the new RPI (giving more weight for road wins, etc), the lowest at-large bids are: #62 Arizona (2009), #62 Iowa St and #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

Under the old RPI (used up intil 2004), the lowest at-large bids are: #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004).

Projected RPI for UIUC for this season: 75.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm keeping abreast of Lunardi's changes, and I swear, he's the one guy who always ignores the old mantra. "Teams get bids, not conferences". He is a direct violater of that, c'mon.


The good news is he finally agrees with me that Florida is in trouble.

[TheAsianSensation]

If Utah St wins tonight - they will bounce Vandy out of the Top 25 of the RPI. That would leave UIUC with only 2 wins of teams in the Top 25 RPI (both to Wisky).

If Utah St loses tonight - it squeezes the bubble, maybe bursting someone on the edge... like UIUC.

And I know that hurts UI, but with the use of team sheets in the room, they can look at the exact rankings of each team they played, so it's not as critical for them to stay in the top 25.

[MacabreMob]

I'm keeping abreast of Lunardi's changes, and I swear, he's the one guy who always ignores the old mantra. "Teams get bids, not conferences". He is a direct violater of that, c'mon.


The good news is he finally agrees with me that Florida is in trouble.

Yea - I thought I heard Lunardi now has UIUC out.

[MacabreMob]

And I know that hurts UI, but with the use of team sheets in the room, they can look at the exact rankings of each team they played, so it's not as critical for them to stay in the top 25.

Honestly - I think the NCAA committee has the field set with a couple contingency plans set up in case Wash wins, Miss St wins, NM St wins, and Minny wins.

With that in mind - I don't think they'll actually see UIUC's final record against the top 25 in the RPI.

[TheAsianSensation]

They won't come up with contgencies until....well right around now I think. I think they may have MSU in already: can you punish them for losing to UK? Minny and OSU?

[TheAsianSensation]

You know, I continue to look at Minny....are we just going to forget that stinkbomb in Ann Arbor last week? Ew.

[MacabreMob]

SD St holding on to a win over UNLV. Both in?

[MacabreMob]

You know, I continue to look at Minny....are we just going to forget that stinkbomb in Ann Arbor last week? Ew.

Last week isn't supposed to carry any more weight than UIUC losing to Utah in November.

[TheAsianSensation]

SD St holding on to a win over UNLV. Both in?

I think UNLV is in, but they'll be closer than they'd like to be.