TAS Bracketology 2/28

[Bravesfan]

The good news for UI is that they can't absorb any more bad losses. I suppose the regular season game would actually be more important, as avoiding having 14 losses may be more important at this point.

There's going to be a couple teams with quite a pile of losses at the end. And the question will usually come down to, "who can you beat?" Illinois has a few wins to lean on, whether fair or not.

I agree that Illinois is still in as of now. But if they lose at home to Wisconsin this weekend, that's at least a three game losing streak against NCAA Tournament teams, sandwiched around a bad home loss against probably an NIT team in Minnesota. That's the way you impress the tournament selection committee. That's why I think this game against Wisconsin may be a tournament elimination game for Illinois.

[Bravesfan]

Updated Wednesday night

Next 4 in
Louisville
Illinois
San Diego St
Connecticut

Last 4 in
St Mary's
Florida
Rhode Island
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
UAB
Mississippi St
Dayton
Mississippi

You really don't wanna know what's behind Ole Miss. It might even be Memphis at this point.

Well there you go. Illinois has no margin for error if those conference tournament upsets start rolling in! And then there's St. Mary's sitting right on the bubble again!

And I also have to respectively disagree with the U Conn pick. Sitting at 7-10 in their conference gives them no chance at an at-large bid at this point, especially after two straight "suspect" losses.

[TheAsianSensation]

I agree, but that didn't work for Creighton last year (I know, one of our first place teams made it in last year). And I agree that California deserves to be in the Big Dance based on the same mid-major argument. But watch conference affiliation come into play if California makes it, but Siena or Utah St. don't make it if they lose in their respective conference tournaments.

Siena has the same problem Cal does: no marquee wins to lean on, but the MAAC is worse off than the Pac-10.

Utah St is in a different class and I actually think they're on the brink of being in the tourney no matter what.

[TheAsianSensation]

Well there you go. Illinois has no margin for error if those conference tournament upsets start rolling in! And then there's St. Mary's sitting right on the bubble again!

And I also have to respectively disagree with the U Conn pick. Sitting at 7-10 in their conference gives them no chance at an at-large bid at this point, especially after two straight "suspect" losses.

UConn makes me puke too, but they still have shown they can win games against top-level teams, something the other bubble teams can't.

I'd also argue 7-10 in the Big East is comparable to 8-8 in the ACC or 9-9 in the Big 10 this year.

[SFP]

Well, maybe the bottom of the SEC is just as bad as the Pac 10, but Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are pretty darn good teams IMO! Have those three teams play each Pac 10 team twice and I bet they each win at least 15 or 16 of those 20.

I'd even throw in MSU into that equation. I'm not comparing the 2 conferences I'm just saying that the SEC is not at all that good this year besides the top 4 schools. Pac 10 is weak period! I'm also hedging that this years bubble teams have the weakest resume in history. Is it parity or mediocrity? Even the top 10 schools are all beatable. Syracuse I believe. the number 1 team in the nation, was not on the pre-season top 25.

I'm betting this will be the most interesting tournament since 2006 and I hope the committee add a few more mid-majors because it is not like the BCS schools are lighting it up.

[TheAsianSensation]

Some readjusting heading into Saturday:

1) Kansas (28-2), Syracuse (28-2), Kentucky (28-2), Duke (25-5)
2) Villanova (24-5), Ohio St (24-7), Kansas St (23-5), Purdue (25-4)
3) New Mexico (28-3), West Virginia (23-6), Temple (25-5), Pittsburgh (23-7)
4) Michigan St (23-7), Vanderbilt (22-6), Tennessee (22-7), BYU (26-4)
5) Maryland (21-7), Georgetown (19-9), Wisconsin (22-7), Gonzaga (24-5)
6) Butler (26-4), Xavier (22-7), Baylor (22-6), Northern Iowa (26-4)
7) Texas A&M (20-8 ), Texas (23-7), Richmond (23-7), California (20-9)
8 )Clemson (21-8 ), Florida St (21-8 ), Wake Forest (18-9), Missouri (22-8 )
9) UNLV (21-7), Marquette (20-9), Oklahoma St (20-9), Old Dominion (23-8 )
10) Virginia Tech (22-7), Utah St (23-6), UTEP (23-5), Georgia Tech (18-10)
11) Louisville (19-11), Illinois (18-12), San Diego St (19-8 ), St Mary's (23-5)
12) Siena (24-6), Connecticut (17-13), Cornell (24-4), Florida (20-10)
13) Rhode Island (21-7), Notre Dame (20-10), Kent St (23-8 ), Murray St (27-4)
14) Oakland (21-8 ), Weber St (17-9), Wofford (22-8 ), Sam Houston St (18-6)
15) UC Santa Barbara (17-9), Coastal Carolina (24-5), Troy (15-11), Stony Brook (20-8 )
16) Morgan St (24-9), Quinnipiac (22-8 ), Lehigh (20-10), East Tennessee St (18-14), Jackson St (17-11)


Oklahoma St
---THE LOCK LINE---
In:
Old Dominion*
Virginia Tech
Utah St*
UTEP*
Georgia Tech

Next 4 in:
Louisville
Illinois
San Diego St
St Mary's

Last 4 in:
Siena*
Connecticut
Florida
Rhode Island
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
UAB (23-6)
Dayton (19-10)
Arizona St (21-9)
Mississippi St (21-9)

Next 4 out:
Mississippi (20-9)
Memphis (22-8 )
Kent St*
Wichita St (24-8 )
Charlotte (19-10)

On the board yet:
Washington (20-9)
St Louis (18-10)
Murray St*
Seton Hall (17-11)
South Florida (18-11)
Cincinnati (16-13)
Minnesota (17-12)
William & Mary (19-9)

Off the board, safe NIT bets:
Northwestern (19-11)
Tulsa (20-9)
Northeastern (19-11)
Marshall (19-8 )
Illinois St (22-9)
VCU (21-8 )
Arizona (15-14)
Portland (18-9)
New Mexico St (18-10)
Fairfield (20-9)

Notes:

I have no idea what to do with that 4th #1 seed right now. It'll sort itself out by next week, but I don't like Duke in that spot.

The current swelling in the S-curve occurs around the 5 and 6 seeds. Once you get past #27 Richmond, it feels like there's a major natural gap there. 27 teams for 16 protected seeds, if you will. 7 seems low for A&M and Richmond, in particular.

California is a team I can't quite figure out. Factoring in how the committee usually rewards conference champions, I'll bump them to a 7 for now.

Oklahoma St is #35. That's the last lock team, with another major natural gap in my book, dropping down to the bubble teams.

It really feels like ODU, Siena, Utah St, UTEP, and Kent St are making big gains just by staying still. In fact, I think ODU, Utah St, and UTEP can afford one loss. Siena is borderline. Kent probably won't, but we've seen crazier.

I'm going to go ahead and sell out and move up Arizona St a few notches. Same corollary as Cal - if that was a mid major conference in name, this is where ASU would be at, probably.

[TheAsianSensation]

Break it down!

Big East 9
ACC 7
Big 12 7
Big 10 5
SEC 4
A-10 4
MWC 4
WCC 2

[MacabreMob]

I wanna suggest some Bubble Teams that could squeeze on the At-Large if they don't win the Auto-Bid from their Conf Tournies.

ODU - Colonial in Richmond (home to VCU)
3/7 vs VCU
3/8 TBD

UTEP - ConfUSA in Tulsa (home to Tulsa)
3/10-3/13 vs TBD

Butler - Horizon at Butler
3/9 vs Wright St

Siena - MAAC at Siena
3/7 vs Rider
3/8 TBD

Kent - MAC in Cleveland
3/11-3/13 vs TBD

UNI - MVC in St Louis
3/7 vs Wich St

California - PAC10 in LA
3/10-3/13 vs TBD

Utah St - WAC in Reno (home to Nevada)
3/11-3/13 vs TBD

Gonzaga - WCC in Las Vegas
3/7-3/8 vs TBD

In a normal year, there is usually a couple that lose. For some reason, I think they ALL will take the Auto-Bids.

[TheAsianSensation]

According to my list and based on the wins and losses today, it says for me to elevate Arizona St into the field of 65.

This can't be right.

[TheAsianSensation]

In a normal year, there is usually a couple that lose. For some reason, I think they ALL will take the Auto-Bids.

This year, I hope all these guys tank because there's room for them, and I want to see some of these nebulous candidates out.

[MacabreMob]

This year, I hope all these guys tank because there's room for them, and I want to see some of these nebulous candidates out.

I'm with ya. But it is also why I think there won't be any bubble-bursting from these 9 teams. It'll help align the stars just right and this tourney will probably break a record for the worst RPI team awarded an At-Large bid.

Historically:

NEW RPI (used since 2005 giving more weight to road and neutral games) - The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids are #62 Arizona (2009), #62 Iowa St and #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

OLD RPI - The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids are #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004)

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm with ya. But it is also why I think there won't be any bubble-bursting from these 9 teams. It'll help align the stars just right and this tourney will probably break a record for the worst RPI team awarded an At-Large bid.

Historically:

NEW RPI (used since 2005 giving more weight to road and neutral games) - The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids are #62 Arizona (2009), #62 Iowa St and #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

OLD RPI - The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids are #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004)

Illinois will get into the 60's, by the way. Your wish may not come through

[MacabreMob]

Illinois will get into the 60's, by the way. Your wish may not come through

It's all about making shots and winning games. I think UIUC wins the B10 Tourney.

[TheAsianSensation]

How bad has the bubble gotten?

The Pac-10 is multibid again, baby!

[TheAsianSensation]

Promote to lock:
Virginia Tech
Louisville

Next 4 in:
Old Dominion*
UTEP*
Utah St*
San Diego St
Notre Dame
Illinois
Georgia Tech

Last 4 in:
St Mary's
Siena*
Florida
Arizona St
Memphis

Last 4 out:
UAB
Kent St*
Wichita St
Rhode Island
St Louis

Next 4 out:
Dayton
Mississippi St
Mississippi
Washington

On the board yet (in order):
South Florida
Connecticut
Seton Hall
Charlotte
Minnesota
William & Mary




I hate it because I end up copying Lunardi, but look at it. Who the **** am I supposed to put in there? Memphis has UAB trumped in H2H. Wichita St? Hah. URI is self-sabotaging itself, St Louis is directly ahead of Bradley in the RPI, Dayton is losing everywhere, both Mississippi schools don't know the meaning of "quality win", Washington doesn't know the meaning of "road win", UConn is, well, UConn....South Florida back in play with their terrible non-con? Minnesota???

I mean, that last slot will disappear, someone somewhere will take it, but for now, give it the team that's acted like they feel like getting it. I guess. I have no idea. And I had to let in Arizona St too! Compared to those 2, Florida feels like a mortal lock at this point.