UNI in trouble??

[shaunguth]

A winner other than UNI in STL would take the place of teams listed IN. UNI would still be on the Bubble List. But the number of remaining bids available to those on the Bubble List will shrink from 21 to 20 - which would mean 10 teams on the list would not make the Tourney.

UNI is the only Valley team listed though. How would an "undeserving, not even on the bubble" Valley team winning in STL knock off a team that's already listed as "IN" instead of knocking off a "bubble team" such as UNI? The way I look at that list is UNI is predicted to win in STL.

It is, however, a very confusing list as there are no Valley teams listed as "IN", but we are also not listed as a one-bid league. Yet, there is only one Valley team on that list of "others". Could someone please explain that mess to me?

[TheAsianSensation]

TAS is there a way to find out how much the conference overall SOS brought our SOS down. What is the overall OOC SOS of the individual teams? I hope this is addressed by the comish! Shameful !

What is above is the OOC SoS of each team.

As for conference SoS, all that needs to be said is we're #9 in CRPI and we're nowhere close to #8. Everything else being equal to the conference from last year, the worse SoS probably cost us the #8 CRPI this year.

[MacabreMob]

UNI is the only Valley team listed though. How would an "undeserving, not even on the bubble" Valley team winning in STL knock off a team that's already listed as "IN" instead of knocking off a "bubble team" such as UNI? The way I look at that list is UNI is predicted to win in STL.

It is, however, a very confusing list as there are no Valley teams listed as "IN", but we are also not listed as a one-bid league. Yet, there is only one Valley team on that list of "others". Could someone please explain that mess to me?

I may have worded it poorly so sorry for the confusion. Here is what it would look like on Palm's list if for example Evansville wins the MVC Tourney.

Auto Bids IN (1 team): Evansville (MVC)

In (26 teams):
ACC: Duke, Wake Forest
Big 12: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St, Texas, Texas A&M
Big East: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan St, Ohio St, Wisconsin
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
A-10: Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Horizon: Butler
Mtn W: BYU, New Mexico
West Coast: Gonzaga
One bid only (18 ): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC
Number of spots remaining in the field: 20
Number of teams listed below: 30. That means that at least 10 teams listed on this page will not make the tournament.

I didn't list the 30 teams again just to save on space.... but so of the 30 I listed earlier in the thread, UNI would be one of the 30 (on the bubble) trying to get one of the 20 spots left.

[MacabreMob]

It is, however, a very confusing list as there are no Valley teams listed as "IN", but we are also not listed as a one-bid league. Yet, there is only one Valley team on that list of "others". Could someone please explain that mess to me?

UNI is not a LOCK to be IN according to Palm. But he also recognizes UNI as having a good chance of getting an At-Large bid if they don't win the MVC - therefore, the MVC is not considered to be a LOCK for a 1-bid league like the SWAC is. But to add to that - if a surprise team wins the MVC Tourney, (right now) Palm considers UNI to be the only team in the MVC that would be considered for an at-large bid.

Now the list changes. A lot down the stretch here. Teams play themselves off the list onto the IN category, some play themselves off the list and out of consideration completely. Some play themselves out of the IN list and onto the bubble. Some teams play their way onto the bubble list from out of nowhere.

For example, Palm updated the list today and removed St John's from the list of 30 teams on the bubble.

[shaunguth]

UNI is not a LOCK to be IN according to Palm. But he also recognizes UNI as having a good chance of getting an At-Large bid if they don't win the MVC - therefore, the MVC is not considered to be a LOCK for a 1-bid league like the SWAC is. But to add to that - if a surprise team wins the MVC Tourney, (right now) Palm considers UNI to be the only team in the MVC that would be considered for an at-large bid.

Now the list changes. A lot down the stretch here. Teams play themselves off the list onto the IN category, some play themselves off the list and out of consideration completely. Some play themselves out of the IN list and onto the bubble. Some teams play their way onto the bubble list from out of nowhere.

For example, Palm updated the list today and removed St John's from the list of 30 teams on the bubble.

I guess I was looking at the "IN" teams as being locks and not just a "snapshot" of this exact moment in time. I was thinking they wouldn't be able to get knocked out of that position......guess that's part of why the list was confusing to me.

[Da Coach]

Wait until you see how the non-conference SoSs shook down.

Indiana St 99
Bradley 134
Creighton 167
Missouri St 256
Northern Iowa 261
Drake 267
Wichita St 303
Southern Illinois 306
Illinois St 327
Evansville 342

What a disaster.

TAS, where did your numbers come from? One non-conf list that I found shows Illinois States at 347!

Here is the overall Strength of Schedule-Bradley is #1 in the MVC.
Bradley 65
Indiana State 69
Creighton 82
Drake 97
No. Iowa 116
Mo. State 120
Evansville 124
Wichita State 129
Southern Ill 134
Ill State 160

Bradley's SOS was hurt by a couple teams we thought were better, that tanked late in the season.
Presbyterian is now 4-25 and RPI 327
Loyola is now 12-14 RPI 198
Iowa State is 14-14 RPI 120

But on the plus side,
BYU is 25-3 RPI 19
Wofford 21-8 RPI 81 and they won the Southern Conference for the first time
Oklahoma State 19-8 RPI 33
Illinois 18-10 RPI 62

[TheAsianSensation]

TAS, where did your numbers come from? One non-conf list that I found shows Illinois States at 347!

Here is the overall Strength of Schedule-Bradley is #1 in the MVC.
Bradley 65
Indiana State 69
Creighton 82
Drake 97
No. Iowa 116
Mo. State 120
Evansville 124
Wichita State 129
Southern Ill 134
Ill State 160

Bradley's SOS was hurt by a couple teams we thought were better, that tanked late in the season.
Presbyterian is now 4-25 and RPI 327
Loyola is now 12-14 RPI 198
Iowa State is 14-14 RPI 120

But on the plus side,
BYU is 25-3 RPI 19
Wofford 21-8 RPI 81 and they won the Southern Conference for the first time
Oklahoma State 19-8 RPI 33
Illinois 18-10 RPI 62

Got them off of ESPN Insider. Usually very reliable. We still do have the best overall SoS, just over InSU because we get to play their +.500 record while InSU has to play our closer to .500 record.

Loyola's inflated record came back to earth and is probably responsible for much of that dropoff. Truth be told, there can be a lot of fluctuation between late January and late February numbers. And unfortunately, OSU at 19-8, UI at 18-10....sounds alright, but their win % is way down from non-conference, and actually hurts more than you think.

Illinois St, once again, had one of those schedule with so many low-level teams, a few of them were bound to pile up wins in conference play. This helped advance the schedule from "total catastrophe" to just "really, really bad"

[MacabreMob]

Jerry Palm's Non-Conference SOS:

111 Indy St
128 Bradley
167 Creighton
220 UNI
247 Mo St
251 Drake
288 Wich St
308 SIU
327 Ill St
338 E'Ville

some others....
347 C Conn (worst)
346 Miami-Fl
336 Va Tech
326 W Ill
312 Ore St

[Nacho]

it's because of ISU & SIU

Wait until you see how the non-conference SoSs shook down.

Indiana St 99
Bradley 134
Creighton 167
Missouri St 256
Northern Iowa 261
Drake 267
Wichita St 303
Southern Illinois 306
Illinois St 327
Evansville 342

What a disaster.

ISU and SIU's bad non-conference schedule had no effect on UNI's non-conference SOS...

[tornado]

nobody cares if the league's worst team has a bad SOS, but when the league's better teams and teams with the best records have absolutely pathetic SOS's
then that's what gonna cost the Valley an at-large bid...guarantee it...

The three best teams in our league have NCSOS's of 261, 303, 327 with ISU's being so bad it'll get writeups should anyone even joke about the Valley getting an at-large bid...
Thanks guys.....but when someone from ISU talks SOS or at-large bids...you lose all credibility...

[Nacho]

nobody cares if the league's worst team has a bad SOS, but when the league's better teams and teams with the best records have absolutely pathetic SOS's
then that's what gonna cost the Valley an at-large bid...guarantee it...

The three best teams in our league have NCSOS's of 261, 303, 327 with ISU's being so bad it'll get writeups should anyone even joke about the Valley getting an at-large bid...
Thanks guys.....but when someone from ISU talks SOS or at-large bids...you lose all credibility...

Well when your team gets swept by a team with such a terrible SOS then all credibility is lost too

[tornado]

not convinced we have been swept...we may yet meet again.....

speaking of at-large....just when some USC fans thought they might be rallying for a claim to at-large consideration, they go and blow it...
USC scored an anemic 44 points last night losing to 4-10, last place Oregon, 54-44....coming right after a 51-47 loss at next-to last-place Wash. State

so with the performances of UNC, Arizona, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, etc...surely a few mid-majors ought to get at-large bids....since there just aren't many BCS teams in the running

[cpacmel]

I think if people are really worried about UNI, they should look much closer at the MVC's teams RPI's.

As it currently stands, UNI can get 0 top 50 wins inside the conference. Because as you guessed it, there are ZERO teams in the top 50.

And if you look at top 100 wins, there are only 4 teams in the MVC currently under 100 (WSU 53, ILLINOIS STATE 79, MO STATE 80, INDIANA STATE 8.

The committee is going to look at RPI, top 50, top 100 wins way before it ever looks at MVC NON-Conference SOS's, especially of teams not even in the top 50 RPI.

And while we are talking about non-conference schedules..........I seem to remember reading quite a few posts about how Illinois State's schedule WOULD NOT prepare them for life in the MVC. A win on Saturday at UNI, and we finish 2nd. Not too bad for a team that only returned 51% of their scoring from last season.

[TheAsianSensation]

not convinced we have been swept...we may yet meet again.....

speaking of at-large....just when some USC fans thought they might be rallying for a claim to at-large consideration, they go and blow it...
USC scored an anemic 44 points last night losing to 4-10, last place Oregon, 54-44....coming right after a 51-47 loss at next-to last-place Wash. State

so with the performances of UNC, Arizona, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, etc...surely a few mid-majors ought to get at-large bids....since there just aren't many BCS teams in the running

USC is ineligible for the tournament, that's why everyone has been ignoring them. They'd probably be in the same boat as Arizona St right now anyways.

The sad thing about power conferences is that if you cut off the head (UNC, Arizona, UND), another one appears (Virginia Tech, Arizona St, Marquette, et al).

[TheAsianSensation]

ISU and SIU's bad non-conference schedule had no effect on UNI's non-conference SOS...

That's correct, but it does hurt UNI a little bit in the 25% component of opponent's SoS. UNI is in the low 20s right now....Valley teams performing better on the whole in their SoS may be worth 4-5 RPI spots.