TAS Bracketology 2010

[TheAsianSensation]

Digging into mid-February, it's time for this thread to return in earnest. Frankly could've come sooner, but there wouldn't have been a lot of value.

First bracket in a few hours, along with a new feature this year: A full blown Bubble Watch, along with CIT/CBI Watch for those interested. As usual, complete analysis of the bubble, and as always, criticism and challenging of the bracket is welcome.

[TheAsianSensation]

Bubble watch, part 1


Well here we go with total information immersion:

Big East

5 are assured, but what a mess behind them. It's like a lottery. Someone will get hot and make this task easier. The top 4 are streaking for #1 or #2 seeds, which does bode well for the league. Someone's bound to knock them off and earn a quality win. I think 7 is the ending number for this conference, but it'll be adventure en route to getting there

Lockbox
Syracuse (23-1) (10-1) RPI 2 SoS 13
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 2/41, R/N 9-0, Last 12 11-1, 5-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-1 vs. RPI Top 100
The profile screams #1 seed right now. Not much to say here

West Virginia (19-3) (8-2) RPI 4 SoS 12
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 5/32, R/N 10-2, Last 12 9-3, 6-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 12-3 vs. RPI Top 100
They may be the odd team out in the jumbled Big East top, but a top 2 seed seems easily within reach

Villanova (20-2) (9-1) RPI 5 SoS 50
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 26/165, R/N 10-2, Last 12 11-1, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-2 vs. RPI Top 100
This is the team among the top 3 that need the Big East title for validation for a 1 seed a bit more than the 2 above

Georgetown (17-5) (7-4) RPI 8 SoS 1
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 1/15, R/N 6-3, Last 12 8-4, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-5 vs. RPI Top 100
SoS will help undo some losses, but the roadblock to #1 seed here is the 3 teams above them in the Big East standings. Hold trump card over Duke

Should be in
Pittsburgh (17-6) (7-4) RPI 23 SoS 17
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 18/69, R/N 5-5, Last 12 8-4, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI Top 100
No longer a "lock" profile, but still a pretty good shot at a protected seed. Would take a total collapse to miss the field entirely

On the bubble
Louisville (15-8 ) (6-4) RPI 42 SoS 4
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 19/19, R/N 2-5, Last 12 7-5, 1-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-8 vs. RPI Top 100
Well, time to sort the mess. Good SoS offset by miserable R/N and RPI Top 50 and 100 records. Playing the toughest doesn't mean much when you can't beat them. Compared to the schools below them, they've done just slightly more and have the better power numbers, but it won't take much to be overtaken in this zone

South Florida (15-8 ) (5-6) RPI 49 SoS 37
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 51/211, R/N 7-5, Last 12 6-6, 2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-7 vs. RPI Top 100
The team-du-jour isn't as strong as people think. Terrible non-con numbers means you have to make hay in conference, and 5-6 is not hay. And they're still only 6-6 over their last 12. They need more quality wins on top of what they've done. The good news is their R/N is better than most in this range

Cincinnati (14-9) (5-6) RPI 56 SoS 18
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 31/64, R/N 3-7, Last 12 6-6, 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-9 vs. RPI Top 100
Not feeling Cincy's chances. Everything on their resume screams mediocre, and more than the other teams here, they need conference standings to work in their favor. And besides that, I don't think they're actually good enough to do it

Connecticut (14-9) (4-6) RPI 57 SoS 8
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 9/10, R/N 1-7, Last 12 5-7, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-7 vs. RPI Top 100
Some of the power numbers are saving their bacon right now. In serious trouble, and need results in a hurry. Like, now

Notre Dame (17-7) (6-5) RPI 59 SoS 62
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 53/223, R/N 2-5, Last 12 7-5, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
I guess we have to keep them around if they're 6-5 while the others are floundering, but those SoS numbers stick out like a sore thumb compared to the rest. Like UConn, need to make hay, and soon

Marquette (15-8 ) (6-5) RPI 60 SoS 56
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 76/219, R/N 4-6, Last 12 7-5, 2-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-6 vs. RPI Top 100
Similar situation to UND and UConn. Again, the good news is 6-5 in conference play. For all these bubble teams, they are currently 6th through 11th in the conference. 6 v 11, 7 v 10, and 8 v 9 in MSG, by the way. I have a feeling they'll sort themselves out for us

Bubble trouble
Seton Hall (12-9) (3-7) RPI 63 SoS 7
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 39/171, R/N 2-6, Last 12 4-8, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-9 vs. RPI Top 100
Really only here because of the SoS. That and a shot at 2 marquee wins at MSG and I won't kill them - yet

On the phone with CIT coordinators
St John's (12-10) (2-8 ) RPI 91 SoS 45
Providence (12-11) (4-7) RPI 104 SoS 70

Remember when the St John's bandwagon was motoring along?





ACC

Now here's a wild conference. You tell me who goes where. This could go anywhere from 5 to 7 bids, and nothing would surprise me anymore. Strangely, the two teams behind Duke piling up conference wins are Maryland and Virginia Tech, but they don't have the profiles that the likes of GT, FSU, and Clemson has. This leads to a very fluid bubble situation where informatio contradicts itself and I get angry and cuss out Gary Williams.

Lockbox
Duke (19-4) (7-2) RPI 3 SoS 5
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 10/40, R/N 6-4, Last 12 9-3, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-3 vs. RPI Top 100
The good news for them is the regular season title in the ACC should lock up a 2 seed, which is all Duke needs as of now

Should be in
Wake Forest (16-5) (6-3) RPI 16 SoS 23
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 37/146, R/N 6-4, Last 12 9-3, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Of all the teams in this mess, Wake is best equipped to rise from it

Georgia Tech (16-6) (5-4) RPI 25 SoS 14
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 23/102, R/N 5-5, Last 12 8-4, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-6 vs. RPI Top 100
The computer numbers suggest this team should be more safe, but just 5-4 in the ACC. They don't want to get caught in the middle here. They still have safe numbers for an ACC team, though

Florida St (17-6) (5-4) RPI 43 SoS 55
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 50/225, R/N 6-4, Last 12 8-4, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
It's borderline between them dropping a level, but I think they're still #4 in the ACC pecking order, and that has solid value always. Get to 9-7 in ACC play to make sure, boys

On the bubble
Clemson (16-7) (4-5) RPI 40 SoS 33
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 27/131, R/N 6-5, Last 12 7-5, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-6 vs. RPI Top 100
I told you they'd torpedo themselves. They're in freefall and are undoing all the good they did to their profile early on. The matter of fact is that if teams like UVA and Maryland stay well ahead of them in the standings, they can't leapfrog them, and all of a sudden Clemson is out period. Danger zone

Maryland (15-6) (6-2) RPI 44 SoS 31
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 61/130, R/N 4-5, Last 12 9-3, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI Top 100
We can no longer ignore a 6-2 ACC team. Maryland hasn't really done much outside of that mark, though, so 9-7 isn't going to work for them. Their profile isn't really that great outside of being artificially pumped up by 6-2. This team will collaspe to the joy of everyone

Virginia Tech (18-4) (5-3) RPI 64 SoS 237
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 131/346, R/N 6-4, Last 12 9-3, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Look at that SoS. 237 for an ACC team in February. That's just bad basketball. 9-7 won't work for them either. They need quality wins and in a hurry. The good news is that there's no bad losses here for them, so posting a gaudy record with, say, 7 losses, should work. They're probably out for me as of today, but there's time

Bubble trouble
North Carolina (13-10) (2-6) RPI 79 SoS 19
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 43/96, R/N 2-7, Last 12 5-7, 2-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-10 vs. RPI Top 100
Dead in the water Really only here because of the name UNC, and a couple wins to lean on if they make a run. They get Duke twice, you know

Miami (15-7) (2-7) RPI 82 SoS 160
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 82/343, R/N 6-6, Last 12 6-6, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Virginia Tech lite, except they keep losing. You can ignore them, I'll wake you up if something happens here

Virginia (14-7) (5-3) RPI 94 SoS 118
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 144/303, R/N 3-4, Last 12 9-3, 2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 100
5-3 is the only reason they're still in this category

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Boston College (12-11) (3-6) RPI 103 SoS 25
North Carolina St (14-10) (2-7) RPI 109 SoS 114

Just about every ACC game is a bubble game at this point, so expect this situation to be very fluid. This will be the most maddening conference to figure out, unless the ACCT offers clarity. And it usually doesn't.

[TheAsianSensation]

Big 12

7 teams. I just can't see any other result happening in this conference. Computer numbers are in their favor. Expect the seeds to be scattered everywhere, though.

Lockbox
Kansas (22-1) (8-0) RPI 1 SoS 21
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 8/54, R/N 7-1, Last 12 11-1, 7-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-1 vs. RPI Top 100
They'd have to do something funny to lose a 1 seed

Kansas St (18-4) (6-3) RPI 7 SoS 3
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 3/25, R/N 8-2, Last 12 9-3, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Sterling computer numbers should lead to a protected seed. The path is clear to be the 2nd team out of the Big 12 for pod purposes

Texas (19-4) (5-3) RPI 22 SoS 75
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 30/186, R/N 7-3, Last 12 8-4, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Still deserve to be a lock, but those SoS numbers aren't helping the cause. But let's not overreact. Barring a collapse, this is still a resume that should garner a protected seed

Should be in
Texas A&M (16-6) (6-3) RPI 20 SoS 11
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 24/51, R/N 4-6, Last 12 8-4, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI Top 100
They make a big jump in my book thanks to the RPI/SOS, and the peripheries are strong enough. Now the mission is to get home at 9-7 and they're fine

Baylor (16-5) (4-4) RPI 28 SoS 26
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 20/140, R/N 6-4, Last 12 8-4, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 100
They really can't afford to languish in the middle of the pack too much longer. Strong computer profile, but they need to stay a level above the next 3, because if they don't, their numbers will suffer

On the bubble
Texas Tech (15-7) (3-5) RPI 32 SoS 15
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 16/88, R/N 2-6, Last 12 6-6, 1-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-7 vs. RPI Top 100
Computer profile looks shiny enough, until you see 2-6 in road/neutrals and 1 win in 8 tries against the top 50. You have to make more hay than that. Obviously, 3-5 Big 12 is no good either. The good news is that if you fix that record, by proxy, you're bound to fix your other profile problems. They're out as of now, but they control their own destiny, so to speak

Oklahoma St (16-7) (4-5) RPI 39 SoS 30
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 32/149, R/N 5-6, Last 12 6-6, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100
They're starting to slip a little too far off pace for my liking. Computer numbers, like the others, are solid, but comparatively speaking, they don't have nearly enough advantage. Can this team make it at 8-8? Probably depends on the '8'

Missouri (17-6) (5-3) RPI 47 SoS 77
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 69/217, R/N 4-5, Last 12 9-3, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
The worst RPI/SOS, but has generally better peripherals than the other 2 main bubble teams here. Really, there's not much to say here either, because they control their own destiny

Bubble trouble
Oklahoma (13-9) (4-4) RPI 75 SoS 42
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 86/170, R/N 2-9, Last 12 6-6, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-6 vs. RPI Top 100
Only still on here as a courtesy, really. That road/neutral is ugly as sin, but they can beat some of the better teams, so they may end up with a leg up on, say, Texas Tech

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Iowa St (13-10) (2-6) RPI 114 SoS 95
Nebraska (13-10) (1-7) RPI 126 SoS 100






SEC

Man, there's some teams here that sound greater than they actually are. These teams are going to flame out.

Lockbox
Kentucky (22-1) (7-1) RPI 6 SoS 76
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 12/114, R/N 8-1, Last 12 11-1, 3-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Winning the SEC should be enough for a 1 seed, SoS be darned

Tennessee (18-4) (6-2) RPI 18 SoS 44
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 17/62, R/N 6-3, Last 12 10-2, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Tough to gauge this team. 3 seed? 6? Could be anywhere in between. Suggestion: keep winning, because if you don't, this seeding can get dicey and fast

Should be in
Vanderbilt (16-5) (6-2) RPI 19 SoS 24
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 38/91, R/N 5-5, Last 12 10-2, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 100
The overall profile is a level below UT, so I had to drop them. If they miss entirely, it'll be an epic collapse, though

On the bubble
Mississippi (17-6) (5-4) RPI 36 SoS 51
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 25/89, R/N 7-4, Last 12 7-5, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
5-4 in the SEC West is near unforgivable, but I'm compelled to let this team hang around the bracket another week. I'm not excited about it. They need a signature win, and quick, though, to stay in

Florida (17-6) (6-3) RPI 53 SoS 82
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 69/203, R/N 6-4, Last 12 9-3, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Another team in need of a signature win to hang their hat on late. SoS is not good enough to survive a mediocre SEC resume. Still, if they keep winning, 11-5 won't be ignored in the SEC this year

South Carolina (13-9) (4-4) RPI 69 SoS 28
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 68/95, R/N 3-9, Last 12 6-6, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-7 vs. RPI Top 100
Big deal, you beat Kentucky. Now go and back it up with something, anything. Virtually all peripheries are working against USC. Without UK, they'd be nothing right now

Mississippi St (16-7) (4-4) RPI 70 SoS 148
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 79/238, R/N 7-6, Last 12 7-5, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 100
What a disappointing team in my book. They need a very serious rally. The good news is that the SEC West is wide open, so wins are available, and 10-6 is accessible

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Georgia (10-11) (2-6) RPI 89 SoS 6
Alabama (13-10) (3-6) RPI 105 SoS 66
Arkansas (12-11) (5-3) RPI 113 SoS 22

[TheAsianSensation]

Big 10

5 bids. Never been so certain in my life of it. 5. Really, these bubble cases are cut and dry

Lockbox
Wisconsin (18-5) (8-3) RPI 9 SoS 9
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 13/52, R/N 5-5, Last 12 9-3, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-4 vs. RPI Top 100
There's a pod in Milwaukee, remember. There is A LOT at stake here

Purdue (19-3) (7-3) RPI 11 SoS 43
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 6/68, R/N 8-2, Last 12 9-3, 4-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Probably good for a protected seed, but odds-on favorite to get shipped to Spokane

Michigan St (19-5) (9-2) RPI 14 SoS 35
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 44/115, R/N 6-5, Last 12 10-2, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Needs Lucas back before too much harm is done to the profile. This is not the kind of profile that gets a 2 seed, usually

Ohio St (18-6) (8-3) RPI 38 SoS 91
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 59/168, R/N 3-6, Last 12 8-4, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Yes, lock. Turner makes a difference, I'm willing to give it to them

On the bubble
Minnesota (14-8 ) (5-5) RPI 61 SoS 32
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 36/60, R/N 3-7, Last 12 7-5, 2-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100
.500 in the Big 10 is not good enough when the bad of the conference is very bad. Sooner or later, you have to beat the top teams. I have my doubts of that

Northwestern (16-7) (5-6) RPI 66 SoS 71
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 48/255, R/N 4-4, Last 12 6-6, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100
You name me a positive attribute in this profile. Go ahead. I dare you

Illinois (16-8 ) (8-3) RPI 72 SoS 92
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 95/135, R/N 4-7, Last 12 8-4, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-6 vs. RPI Top 100
That RPI screams NIT, but that 8-3 screams NCAA. The bad news is that 10-8 in the Big 10, while sounding good on the surface, means 2-5 to close. The good news is that Illinois makes their case very easy if they win as little as 4 games


A-10

Think MVC '06. 6 serious contenders for bids, 1 will fall by the wayside, and 1 will have their bubble pop. 6 today, 4 in the end. Simple.

Should be in
Rhode Island (19-3) (7-2) RPI 12 SoS 63
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 7/27, R/N 9-2, Last 12 10-2, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Can't ignore that shiny record and RPI anymore. There is going to be a question of seeding, but to miss the tournament? That'll take some effort

Temple (19-5) (7-2) RPI 17 SoS 48
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 21/34, R/N 9-4, Last 12 9-3, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Still should be fine. All the profile numbers are still rock solid

On the bubble
Xavier (16-7) (8-2) RPI 27 SoS 20
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 42/20, R/N 4-7, Last 12 9-3, 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-7 vs. RPI Top 100
They're offsetting all the damage they did in the non-con with 8-2 in conference. Truth is, though, if they start losing in bunches, their profile won't hold up comparatively with the teams below them. And I've said it all along: they're not as safe as you think

Richmond (18-6) (7-2) RPI 31 SoS 64
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 45/65, R/N 7-5, Last 12 9-3, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
The quintessential bubble team. Decent stats across the board. Nothing here jumps out at you, but no stat works against them. I'm willing to lock them up with a 2-0 week coming up

Dayton (16-6) (5-3) RPI 33 SoS 41
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 14/22, R/N 5-5, Last 12 8-4, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
I still think there's work to do here. A-10 #6 is not the place for a bubble team to be, and many of their profile numbers are just slightly worse than others. If they finish 11-7, what do you do with them? I have no idea

Charlotte (18-5) (8-1) RPI 46 SoS 153
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 94/194, R/N 9-4, Last 12 9-3, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 100
This team, more than any of the other teams, needs that A-10 regular season title to hang a hat on. By far the worst computer profile. This is a team that makes things interesting if they go 12-6

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Duquense (11-11) (3-6) RPI 99 SoS 40
St Louis (13-8 ) (5-3) RPI 110 SoS 136
LaSalle (11-12) (3-6) RPI 117 SoS 65
George Washington (12-10) (2-7) RPI 135 SoS 151


MWC

Very simple, as you're about to see

Lockbox
New Mexico (21-3) (7-2) RPI 10 SoS 49
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 11/59, R/N 7-2, Last 12 9-3, 6-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Can't find a reason to deny them a lock right now

BYU (21-3) (7-2) RPI 21 SoS 121
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 44/223, R/N 9-3, Last 12 10-2, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Them too. SoS is a concern here, though

On the bubble
UNLV (18-4) (7-2) RPI 30 SoS 98
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 54/202, R/N 9-2, Last 12 9-3, 4-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Really close to moving up a notch in my book. I'll hold back another week, as the SoS isn't quite enough. Yet

San Diego St (14-7) (5-4) RPI 41 SoS 54
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 50/124, R/N 6-6, Last 12 7-5, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Really in bubble trouble now. Have lost the lead draft of the top 3 teams, and that is the critical flaw here. They just simply aren't on that level. The odds of UNLV missing are approximately equal to the odds of SDSU making. This league screams 3 bids, and you can mark that down today, IMO

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Colorado St (13-9) (5-4) RPI 97 SoS 120

[TheAsianSensation]

Colonial

Current leader (not currently inside cutline)
Northeastern

On the bubble
Old Dominion (18-7) (10-3) RPI 35 SoS 73
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 38/16, R/N 6-7, Last 12 9-3, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-7 vs. RPI Top 100
7 losses this early in February is a bit too many for my liking. The good news is that most of the profile is holding up, but now I'm worried that the margin for error is mostly gone. This team really needs that regular season title as an anchor right now

William & Mary (15-7) (8-5) RPI 51 SoS 81
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 34/47, R/N 8-5, Last 12 7-5, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
They've probably lost all relevance at this point, but these RPI/SoS numbers and 3-2 vs. Top 50 is too shiny to throw away, for now, I guess. But they need to ascend the standings, and in a hurry

Bubble trouble
VCU (17-5) (9-4) RPI 52 SoS 142
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 28/90, R/N 5-4, Last 12 9-3, 3-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100
3-0 vs. RPI Top 50! They are not dead in the water, but they need to ascend the standings and fast. A lot of teams ahead of them they need to navigate around

Northeastern (16-8 ) (11-2) RPI 54 SoS 57
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 70/6, R/N 8-6, Last 12 11-1, 2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Your new CAA leader. And with a respectable RPI and they're hot in their last 12. 6 in non-con SoS. There's more good than you think here. What does a regular season CAA title do? I don't know, really

George Mason (15-9) (10-3) RPI 130 SoS 227
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 196/192, R/N 5-8, Last 12 9-3, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Only here as a courtesty at this point

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Drexel (14-11) (9-4) RPI 95 SoS 99
Hofstra (11-13) (5-8 ) RPI 179 SoS 130




CUSA

Current leader (not currently inside cutline)
UTEP

On the bubble
UAB (19-4) (7-2) RPI 29 SoS 106
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 35/107, R/N 9-3, Last 12 9-3, 1-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Tough to get a read on this team. The numbers look good enough, but only the RPI screams at me as something truly good. Still, this is the one team that can survive sharing or losing the CUSA regular season title

UTEP (17-5) (8-1) RPI 58 SoS 111
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 90/188, R/N 5-3, Last 12 9-3, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
They need the regular season crown, on the other hand. And need to beat UAB in the process. Too much deadweight in the profile

Tulsa (17-5) (7-2) RPI 62 SoS 155
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 85/212, R/N 4-5, Last 12 9-3, 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Dangerously close to being on their last legs. The good news is there isn't much ground to make up in the standings. Winning will solve their problems. 2 is their threshold, I think

Bubble trouble
Memphis (16-7) (6-2) RPI 74 SoS 86
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 66/77, R/N 4-4, Last 12 7-5, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Dead in the water

Marshall (14-7) (5-4) RPI 87 SoS 135
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 67/134, R/N 5-5, Last 12 7-5, 0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 0-6 vs. RPI Top 100
I'm not even sure why I included them in here

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Southern Miss (10-8 ) (4-4) RPI 107 SoS 144
Houston (10-11) (4-5) RPI 158 SoS 93




Horizon

Should be in
Butler (20-4) (13-0) RPI 15 SoS 39
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 33/13, R/N 10-4, Last 12 12-0, 2-3 vs RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
I'll hesitate calling them a lock for one reason: Any Horizon loss will be pretty damaging to the profile

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Wright St (15-9) (8-5) RPI 96 SoS 172
Green Bay (14-9) (8-5) RPI 122 SoS 164
Cleveland St (10-12) (8-4) RPI 128 SoS 53
Detroit (13-10) (7-6) RPI 173 SoS 242




Ivy

Current leader (currently inside cutline)
Cornell

On the bubble
Cornell (18-3) (6-0) RPI 48 SoS 196
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 74/163, R/N 11-2, Last 12 11-1, 0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Those computer numbers can't survive many losses given the competition. One to Princeton or Harvard, but that's about it. The good news is that I can't see this team losing the Ivy outright, period

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Harvard (14-5) (4-2) RPI 92 SoS 261
Princeton (12-5) (4-0) RPI 121 SoS 300




MAAC

Should be in
Siena (20-4) (13-0) RPI 34 SoS 138
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 120/197, R/N 8-4, Last 12 12-0, 0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100
That 0-3 is killer. Even if they had just 1, I'd call them close to a lock. If they run the MAAC table, I can't see how they're denied. Just can't

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Iona (18-7) (10-4) RPI 85 SoS 176
Fairfield (16-7) (9-4) RPI 115 SoS 238
St Peter's (14-10) (9-5) RPI 142 SoS 190
Rider (13-12) (6-7) RPI 152 SoS 175
Niagara (13-12) (6-7) RPI 164 SoS 167




MVC

Lockbox
Northern Iowa (21-2) (12-1) RPI 13 SoS 106
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 68/284, R/N 10-2, Last 12 11-1, 2-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-1 vs. RPI Top 100
They are not missing the field, forget about it

On the bubble
Wichita St (19-5) (9-4) RPI 37 SoS 121
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 80/320, R/N 6-5, Last 12 9-3, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Boy, that 320 SoS doesn't look so good now, does it? Frankly, they've run out of MVC mulligans. 12-6 is getting into danger zone. Better get 13-5

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Indiana St (13-10) (6-7) RPI 82 SoS 58
Missouri St (16-8 ) (6-7) RPI 87 SoS 146
Bradley (12-11) (7-6) RPI 111 SoS 79
Illinois St (16-8 ) (7-6) RPI 121 SoS 222
Creighton (12-12) (7-6) RPI 130 SoS 87
Southern Illinois (12-10) (5-8 ) RPI 134 SoS 126




Pac 10

Current leader (currently inside cutline)
California

On the bubble
California (15-8 ) (7-4) RPI 26 SoS 2
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 4/1, R/N 4-7, Last 12 8-4, 0-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 100
We might as well include the Pac 10 in this batch. Meanwhile, look at Cal's non-con numbers. It's going to save everything for them right now. But 0-4 vs. Top 50 means no margin for error. If this were an at-large team, I'd say their right on the bubble

Bubble trouble
Washington (16-7) (6-5) RPI 55 SoS 47
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 15/40, R/N 0-6, Last 12 7-5, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-5 vs. RPI Top 100
For the love of God, win an away game. Then we'll talk

Arizona (12-11) (6-5) RPI 67 SoS 10
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 47/7, R/N 4-8, Last 12 6-6, 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-8 vs. RPI Top 100
RIP Arizona

Arizona St (16-8 ) (6-5) RPI 77 SoS 85
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 56/147, R/N 4-5, Last 12 7-5, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-7 vs. RPI Top 100
RPI ASU

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Washington St (14-8 ) (5-6) RPI 106 SoS 165
UCLA (11-12) (6-5) RPI 136 SoS 46




WCC

Current leader (currently inside cutline)
St Mary's

Should be in
Gonzaga (18-4) (7-1) RPI 24 SoS 67
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 22/31, R/N 11-3, Last 12 11-1, 2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 100
They're fine

On the bubble
St Mary's (20-3) (8-1) RPI 45 SoS 146
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 29/66, R/N 9-1, Last 12 11-1, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100
The more and more I look at this team, the more and more I think they can easily survive a loss to Gonzaga - if they don't do anything silly elsewhere

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Portland (13-8 ) (5-3) RPI 83 SoS 108





WAC

Current leader (not currently inside cutline)
Utah St

Bubble trouble
Utah St (17-6) (8-2) RPI 50 SoS 104
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 75/126, R/N 5-5, Last 12 10-2, 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
We'll give USU a chance. They can beat Wichita, and their competition in the WAC provides just enough of a profile boost if they beat them. Needless to say, the margin for error is thin

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Louisiana Tech (19-4) (7-2) RPI 71 SoS 260
Nevada (12-9) (5-4) RPI 73 SoS 38
New Mexico St (13-8 ) (7-2) RPI 78 SoS 80

[TheAsianSensation]

And everyone else:

AEast

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Stony Brook (15-7) (8-2) RPI 154 SoS 310

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Maine (14-8 ) (7-3) RPI 140 SoS 244
Boston (13-11) (8-4) RPI 161 SoS 201
Vermont (17-8 ) (8-3) RPI 165 SoS 325


A-Sun

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Lipscomb (11-11) (10-5) RPI 209 SoS 273

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Jacksonville (13-9) (9-5) RPI 132 SoS 216
Belmont (14-10) (10-5) RPI 144 SoS 188
East Tennessee St (12-12) (9-5) RPI 149 SoS 135
Campbell (12-9) (9-5) RPI 200 SoS 304


Big Sky

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Weber St (13-8 ) (9-2) RPI 84 SoS 113

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Northern Colorado (19-5) (8-3) RPI 98 SoS 290
Montana (15-7) (8-4) RPI 100 SoS 206


Big South

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Coastal Carolina (17-4) (11-2) RPI 140 SoS 339

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Radford (11-10) (9-4) RPI 174 SoS 232
Winthrop (11-10) (9-4) RPI 183 SoS 241


Big West

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Pacific (15-7) (8-2) RPI 112 SoS 221

On the phone with CIT coordinators
UC-Santa Barbara (12-8 ) (8-3) RPI 138 SoS 204
Long Beach St (9-12) (5-5) RPI 143 SoS 94


Independents

No team with postseason aspirations


Great West

Current leader (for automatic CIT berth)

South Dakota (9-9) (4-1) RPI 231 SoS 326


MAC

Current leader (not currently inside cutline)
Kent St

Bubble trouble
Kent St (16-7) (8-2) RPI 65 SoS 107
Vitals: Non-con RPI/SoS 64/36, R/N 8-5, Last 12 9-3, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 100
I'm still keeping an eye on the MAC, dangit

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Western Michigan (12-10) (5-5) RPI 118 SoS 88
Miami(OH) (10-13) (7-3) RPI 129 SoS 61
Buffalo (11-9) (5-5) RPI 131 SoS 149
Akron (16-7) (7-3) RPI 132 SoS 249
Central Michigan (10-10) (6-3) RPI 181 SoS 215


MEAC

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Morgan St (17-7) (9-0) RPI 134 SoS 317


NEC

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Robert Morris (16-8 ) (11-1) RPI 158 SoS 291

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Quinnipiac (16-7) (10-2) RPI 169 SoS 333


OVC

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Murray St (20-3) (13-0) RPI 90 SoS 323

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Morehead St (15-7) (11-2) RPI 108 SoS 195
Austin Peay (12-11) (8-5) RPI 116 SoS 96
Eastern Kentucky (15-8 ) (9-4) RPI 139 SoS 255


Patriot

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Lehigh (15-8 ) (6-2) RPI 168 SoS 301

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Lafayette (14-9) (5-3) RPI 207 SoS 325


SoCon

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Charleston (16-8 ) (11-2) RPI 88 SoS 177

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Western Carolina (15-6) (8-4) RPI 93 SoS 249
Wofford (16-8 ) (9-3) RPI 100 SoS 232
Appalachia St (11-9) (7-4) RPI 126 SoS 159
Davidson (10-11) (7-4) RPI 163 SoS 115


S'land

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Sam Houston St (12-5) (8-0) RPI 75 SoS 143

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Stephen F Austin (13-6) (6-3) RPI 166 SoS 317
Texas A&M-CC (9-10) (6-2) RPI 182 SoS 218


SWAC

Do I even need to say it?

Current leader
Jackson St (10-11) (9-1) RPI 252 SoS 313


Summit

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Oakland (16-8 ) (12-1) RPI 68 SoS 125

On the phone with CIT coordinators
IUPUI (15-8 ) (10-2) RPI 103 SoS 187
Oral Roberts (13-11) (9-4) RPI 119 SoS 139
South Dakota St (11-11) (9-4) RPI 211 SoS 272


Sun Belt

No at-large aspirations

Current leader
Arkansas St (12-9) (9-3) RPI 157 SoS 222

On the phone with CIT coordinators
Denver (14-9) (7-5) RPI 148 SoS 189
North Texas (13-8 ) (8-5) RPI 151 SoS 259
Western Kentucky (13-11) (6-6) RPI 171 SoS 166

[TheAsianSensation]

So to simplify what that wall of text means:

Automatic bids: 31

Other teams in the "lock" category: 10

Teams that "should be in": 10

Total so far: 51

Teams on the bubble: 29

29 Bubble teams for 14 spots

Bubble trouble teams looking to play into the 29-for-14 scenario: 12


Conclusion: The bubble is tighter this year than normal.

[Bravesfan]

Wow! Impressive work TAS! That's more thorough than the ESPN Bubble Watch! Thanks for taking the time to post this.

We may as well call the CIT/CI.com tourneys the "Valley Invitational"! When we wanted to meet the goal of getting the majority of the Valley teams into postseason, I don't think that's quite what Doug Elgin had in mind!

[TheAsianSensation]

Wow! Impressive work TAS! That's more thorough than the ESPN Bubble Watch! Thanks for taking the time to post this.

We may as well call the CIT/CI.com tourneys the "Valley Invitational"! When we wanted to meet the goal of getting the majority of the Valley teams into postseason, I don't think that's quite what Doug Elgin had in mind!

Yeah, this shows the Valley as a whole has actually dipped a bit this season. The way I did the math, if you put everyone in the "bubble trouble" category and above all in the NIT, there's no room left for anyone else to make it in there (considering 5-7 bids to the NIT are automatic bids each year). Therefore, we're staring at sending over half our conference to either the CBI or CIT.

[TheAsianSensation]

1) Kansas (22-1), Syracuse (23-1), Kentucky (22-1), Villanova (20-2)
2) West Virginia (19-3), Georgetown (17-5), Duke (19-4), Michigan St (19-5)
3) Kansas St (18-4), Purdue (19-3), Wisconsin (18-5), Texas (19-4)
4) New Mexico (21-3), Tennessee (18-4), Temple (19-5), Pittsburgh (17-6)
5) BYU (21-3), Wake Forest (16-5), Gonzaga (18-4), Vanderbilt (16-5)
6) Butler (20-4), Ohio St (18-6), Northern Iowa (21-2), Texas A&M (16-6)
7) Georgia Tech (16-6), Rhode Island (19-3), Xavier (16-7), Baylor (16-5)
8 )Missouri (17-6), UNLV (18-4), Siena (20-4), Florida St (17-6)
9) Cornell (18-3), Clemson (16-7), Maryland (15-6), Richmond (18-6)
10) Mississippi (17-6), UAB (19-4), California (15-8 ), St Mary's (20-3)
11) Charlotte (18-5), Illinois (16-8 ), Louisville (15-8 ), South Florida (15-8 )
12) Old Dominion (18-7), Dayton (16-6), Wichita St (19-5), Utah St (17-6)
13) UTEP (17-5), Northeastern (16-8 ), Kent St (16-7), Oakland (16-8 )
14) Murray St (20-3), Charleston (16-8 ), Weber St (13-8 ), Pacific (15-7)
15) Coastal Carolina (17-4), Morgan St (17-7), Sam Houston St (12-5), Stony Brook (15-7)
16) Robert Morris (16-8 ), Lehigh (15-8 ), Arkansas St (12-9), Lipscomb (11-11), Jackson St (10-11)


Next 4 in
UAB
California*
St Mary's
Charlotte*
Illinois
Louisville

Last 4 in
South Florida
Old Dominion
Dayton
Wichita St

Last 4 out
Virginia Tech (18-4)
Florida (17-6)
Oklahoma St (16-7)
Notre Dame (17-7)

Next 4 out
Texas Tech (15-7)
William & Mary (15-7)
Connecticut (14-9)
Marquette (15-8 )

On the board
South Carolina (13-9)
San Diego St (14-7)
Utah St*
Cincinnati (14-9)
Minnesota (14-8 )
UTEP*
Tulsa (17-5)
Northwestern (16-7)
Northeastern*
Mississippi St (16-7)

*in as autobid

Break it down!

Big East 7
ACC 7
A-10 6
Big 12 6
Big 10 5
SEC 4
CAA 2
CUSA 2
MVC 2
WCC 2

[peoriaspitfire]

Therefore, we're staring at sending over half our conference to either the CBI or CIT.

Are we sure these tournaments will still happen? I wasn't sure how financially viable they are. How much longer do you think they'll last.

[TheAsianSensation]

Are we sure these tournaments will still happen? I wasn't sure how financially viable they are. How much longer do you think they'll last.

They're both happening this year.

And if the NIT folds into the NCAA, I guarantee they both stay rather indefinitely.Teams that don't get in the 96 team field will play what would become tourneys #2 and 3.

[TheAsianSensation]

Midwest Regional

@OklahomaCity
1) Kansas (22-1) vs. 16) Arkansas St (12-9)
8 )Richmond (18-6) vs. 9) Mississippi (17-6)

@Spokane
4) Pittsburgh (17-6) vs. 13) UTEP (17-5)
5) Wake Forest (16-5) vs. 12) Illinois (16-8 )

@NewOrleans
3) Purdue (19-3) vs. 14) Weber St (13-8 )
6) Northern Iowa (21-2) vs. 11) Utah St (17-6)

@Providence
2) Georgetown (17-5) vs. 15) Coastal Carolina (17-4)
7) Rhode Island (19-3) vs. 10) St Mary's (20-3)

West Regional

@Providence
1) Villanova (20-2) vs. 16) Robert Morris (16-8 )
8 )Missouri (17-6) vs. 9) Cornell (18-3)

@SanJose
4) New Mexico (21-3) vs. 13) Oakland (16-8 )
5) Vanderbilt (16-5) vs. 12) Wichita St (19-5)

@NewOrleans
3) Texas (19-4) vs. 14) Charleston (16-8 )
6) Ohio St (18-6) vs. 11) South Florida (15-8 )

@Jacksonville
2) Duke (19-4) vs. 15) Morgan St (17-7)
7) Xavier (16-7) vs. 10) California (15-8 )

East Regional

@Milwaukee
1) Kentucky (22-1) vs. 16) Lehigh (15-8 )
8 )Baylor (16-5) vs. 9) Florida St (17-6)

@SanJose
4) Temple (19-5) vs. 13) Kent St (16-7)
5) BYU (21-3) vs. 12) Louisville (15-8 )

@Spokane
3) Wisconsin (18-5) vs. 14) Pacific (15-7)
6) Texas A&M (16-6) vs. 11) Old Dominion (18-7)

@Buffalo
2) West Virginia (19-3) vs. 15) Stony Brook (15-7)
7) Siena (20-4) vs. 10) Maryland (15-6)

South Regional

@Buffalo
1) Syracuse (23-1) vs. 16) Lipscomb (11-11)/Jackson St (10-11)
8 )UNLV (18-4) vs. 9) Clemson (16-7)

@Jacksonville
4) Tennessee (18-4) vs. 13) Northeastern (16-8 )
5) Gonzaga (18-4) vs. 12) Dayton (16-6)

@OklahomaCity
3) Kansas St (18-4) vs. 14) Murray St (20-3)
6) Butler (20-4) vs. 11) Charlotte (18-5)

@Milwaukee
2) Michigan St (19-5) vs. 15) Sam Houston St (12-5)
7) Georgia Tech (16-6) vs. 10) UAB (19-4)



Procedured bumps

Siena +1
Baylor -1
Richmond +1
Florida St -1
Mississippi +1
Maryland -1
Old Dominion +1
Louisville -1
Utah St +1
Illinois -1

[TheAsianSensation]

NIT

East
1) Virginia Tech (18-4) vs. 8 )Seton Hall (12-9)
4) VCU (17-5) vs. 5) Marshall (14-7)
3) South Carolina (13-9) vs. 6) Miami (15-7)
2) Cincinnati (14-9) vs. 7) Iona (18-7)

South
1) Florida (17-6) vs. 8 )Arizona St (16-8 )
4) North Carolina (13-10) vs. 5) George Mason (15-9)
3) William & Mary (15-7) vs. 6) Virginia (14-7)
2) Connecticut (14-9) vs. 7) Harvard (14-5)

Midwest
1) Notre Dame (17-7) vs. 8 )Oklahoma (13-9)
4) Memphis (16-7) vs. 5) Mississippi St (16-7)
3) Minnesota (14-8 ) vs. 6) Louisiana Tech (19-4)
2) Oklahoma St (16-7) vs. 7) Arizona (12-11)

West
1) Texas Tech (15-7) vs. 8 )Arkansas (12-11)
4) Marquette (14-8 ) vs. 5) Northwestern (16-7)
3) Tulsa (17-5) vs. 6) Washington (16-7)
2) San Diego St (14-7) vs. 7) New Mexico St (13-8 )




CBI

East
1) Providence (12-11) vs. 4) Vermont (17-8 )
2) Boston College (12-11) vs. 3) Fairfield (16-7)

South
1) Alabama (13-10) vs. 4) Southern Miss (10-8 )
2) St John's (12-10) vs. 3) Illinois St (16-8 )

Midwest
1) Iowa St (13-10) vs. 4) Green Bay (14-9)
2) St Louis (13-8 ) vs. 3) Creighton (12-12)

West
1) Washington St (14-8 ) vs. 4) Portland (13-8 )
2) Nevada (12-9) vs. 3) Colorado St (13-9)



CIT

East
1) Wright St (15-9) vs. 4) Akron (16-7)
2) St Peter's (14-10) vs. 3) Quinnipiac (16-7)

South
1) Missouri St (16-8 ) vs. 4) Morehead St (15-7)
2) Belmont (14-10) vs. 3) Western Carolina (15-6)

Midwest
1) Bradley (12-11) vs. 4) IUPUI (15-8 )
2) Drexel (14-11) vs. 3) Wofford (16-8 )

West
1) South Dakota (9-9) vs. 4) Montana (15-7)
2) Northern Colorado (19-5) vs. 3) UC-Santa Barbara (12-8 )

[TheAsianSensation]

So there you go. A cornucopia of projections to pique your interest. Run with it.