End of game coaching

[Samd2]

Defense wins games !!!

If jl would have done that he would of been in essence saying he believes in the offense to win a game not the defense. Which would of been a huge mistake, because he always says DEFENSE WINS GAMES and I agree.

D Up !!!

[Chico]

I am not questioning the coaching last night. I just wanted to throw out a thought and see how others felt about it.

BU up 2 with 0:13 left and SIU is inbounding the ball.. Why not foul right away (not of course during a 3 point shot) forcing SIU to shoot 2 for a tie and then regardless we get the last shot? At worst we are tied shooting for the win. Best case senario we have the lead and the ball. I would not suggest this strategy with 0:03 left.. not enough time to get the ball down the court for a good shot.

I know that's not the normal play, but it seems like a reasonable alternative.
SIU ended up with 2 wide open 3 point shots from 2 of their best 3 point shooters. Had one of them hit I shudder to think what the reaction would have been on this website.

By the way.. The SIU coaches said both plays they had called at the end of the game were to inbound to Booker down low. BU took that shot away and SIU went to the 2nd option which was the 3 point shot.

Can't make sense of the question. If you have a lead with that little time left, why would you ever intentionally give an opponent a chance to tie?

[KillerB]

Mind you when I posed the question I knew most of you, if not all would agree with what the coach did. That is the conventional wisdom. However mathmatically I'm not sure it's right.

Almost all of you assume the other team will hit both free throws. Statistically speaking an 80% FT shooter will only tie the game 64% of the time. And those odds go up if the first FT is missed. (Yes this an extemely simplistic mathmatical look at the end of the game situation.. there are many other factors to actually figure in.. the % of time you'll rebound the missed free throw.. your success inbounding.. free throw percentages changing when shot with the game on the line.. etc)

So if you think about it, you have two chances to win by fouling instead of just one. You win 35% chance of winning on missed free throws. And if both free throws are made you still have 10 seconds to score and win. There is very little chance of a loss in regulation under this senario.

As the game played out, SIU took had two open 3 point shots by 2 of their best 3 point shooters. If Fay hit we would have had a few seconds left.. but none after Freeman's shot. There is little chance for a regulation win or OT if they hit. And both of them shoot what.. 35-40% of their 3's? I'd always rather be ahead.. but if I'm behind I'd love it if you told me I had a 35-40% chance of winning out right with by best shooters.

Again this is purely an intellectual exercise that flies in the face of conventional wisdom.. Play For The Win strategy on the road.. let your players decide the outcome not theirs.
But I would love to see somebody who is actually good at statistical analysis work this up. I think you might be surprised at what is the best decision mathmatically speaking. It might be as clear cut as you think (then again it might).

[SFP]

There are other factors then just shooting the FTs. There could be a miss on the 2nd and a tip in and the fact that we need to inbound the ball adds another dimension. I would bet if you could calculate the odds accurately that you would see that JL took the more prudent course. I believe that you always play to win when you are on the road.

[KillerB]

There are other factors then just shooting the FTs. There could be a miss on the 2nd and a tip in and the fact that we need to inbound the ball adds another dimension. I would bet if you could calculate the odds accurately that you would see that JL took the more prudent course. I believe that you always play to win when you are on the road.

SFP
I believe in my last post I mentioned both rebounding the missed free throw and inbounding as other factors that needed to be considered for an accurate analysis. I am sure there are plenty of others I have never thought of. I do think the rebounding % for the defending teams are pretty high and putbacks off missed free throws are pretty small. But yes would need to be included.

But as I said.. I don't think it is as clear cut as you think. Just my opinion. And please don't think I'm critizing Les. It was just something to chat about.

[houstontxbrave]

There are other factors then just shooting the FTs. There could be a miss on the 2nd and a tip in and the fact that we need to inbound the ball adds another dimension. I would bet if you could calculate the odds accurately that you would see that JL took the more prudent course. I believe that you always play to win when you are on the road.

I have harped on the FT shooting all year long. 14-22 is not acceptable 64% for a game is less then average. Now I can handle the 3 misses by SM 12-15 80% is his average but 4 misses out of 5 attempts from Egolf and Roberts, same old song and dance from those two.

And the biggest glaring FT issue was in 35 minutes Andrew Warren got to the line exactly the same amount of times at SIU that every person reading this did 0 times. Before his foot problems he was a take it to the basket slashing player, now he is settling way to much for long jump shots. Go to the hole AW, you need to make a living at the line, zero attempts is not acceptable.

[SFP]

KillerB no offense taken. I'm an arm chair coach and love to be able to draw up plays and be in on the discussions in the huddle if I had it my way. These to me are great threads especially when it worked out for BU.

[SFP]

I have harped on the FT shooting all year long. 14-22 is not acceptable 64% for a game is less then average. Now I can handle the 3 misses by SM 12-15 80% is his average but 4 misses out of 5 attempts from Egolf and Roberts, same old song and dance from those two.

And the biggest glaring FT issue was in 35 minutes Andrew Warren got to the line exactly the same amount of times at SIU that every person reading this did 0 times. Before his foot problems he was a take it to the basket slashing player, now he is settling way to much for long jump shots. Go to the hole AW, you need to make a living at the line, zero attempts is not acceptable.

I could not agree more. AW needs to assert himself a lot more IMO. Teams are trying to shut him down and SIU put a smaller guy on him which limited his ability to drive but it took almost 35 minutes as you would say to see that the match up had to start in the paint. AW can be a match up nightmare as a 2 but we need to recognize quickly where the problem can be exploited in the first 2 minutes of the game. WE seemed to find where his advantage was with his match up with Booker. Get the ball in the high post and make him keep up by taking it right by him. I guarantee next game they will bring another guy around to stop his drive and WE will have to adjust and make the extra pass.