TAS Bracketology 2009

[TheAsianSensation]

EAST Regional

@Philadelphia
1) Connecticut (27-2) vs. 16) Radford (20-7)
Dayton (24-6) vs. 9) Oklahoma St (20-9)

@Boise
4) Clemson (23-6) vs. 13) Davidson (24-6)
5) Purdue (22-8 ) vs. 12) Western Kentucky (20-8 )

@KansasCity
3) Kansas (24-6) vs. 14) North Dakota St (21-6)
6) Utah (20-8 ) vs. 11) St Mary's (22-5)

@Miami
2) Memphis (27-3) vs. 15) Tennessee-Martin (20-8 )
7) Syracuse (21-8 ) vs. 10) Penn St (21-9)


WEST Regional

@KansasCity
1) Oklahoma (26-4) vs. 16) CS-Northridge (14-12)
BYU (22-6) vs. 9) Ohio St (19-9)

@Portland
4) Washington (22-7) vs. 13) Northern Iowa (19-10)
5) Florida St (22-8 ) vs. 12) Providence (18-12)

@Miami
3) Wake Forest (23-5) vs. 14) Binghamton (19-8 )
6) LSU (25-5) vs. 11) Siena (23-7)

@Dayton
2) Louisville (24-5) vs. 15) Robert Morris (22-10)
7) Arizona St (21-8 ) vs. 10) Wisconsin (17-11)


MIDWEST Regional

@Dayton
1) Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. 16) Jacksonville (17-12)/Alabama St (16-9)
Texas (20-9) vs. 9) Boston College (20-10)

@Minneapolis
4) Xavier (24-5) vs. 13) Miami OH (17-11)
5) Illinois (23-8 ) vs. 12) New Mexico (20-10)

@Boise
3) Missouri (24-5) vs. 14) Weber St (20-8 )
6) Marquette (23-7) vs. 11) Michigan (17-12)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (25-5) vs. 15) Cornell (17-9)
7) Butler (24-4) vs. 10) Creighton (25-6)


SOUTH Regional

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (25-3) vs. 16) Morgan St (19-11)
West Virginia (21-9) vs. 9) Minnesota (20-8 )

@Portland
4) UCLA (23-7) vs. 13) VCU (21-9)
5) Gonzaga (23-5) vs. 12) Utah St (25-4)

@Philadelphia
3) Villanova (25-6) vs. 14) American (22-7)
6) California (22-8 ) vs. 11) Texas A&M (21-8 )

@Minneapolis
2) Michigan St (24-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (16-7)
7) Tennessee (19-10) vs. 10) UNLV (20-8 )



Here's the breakdown you need to know:

Teams recently lockboxing their way in the field:
Dayton
BYU
West Virginia
Arizona St
Texas
Boston College

Teams that are OK - for now:
Minnesota
Ohio St
Oklahoma St
Wisconsin

Next 4 in:
Creighton
UNLV
Penn St
Texas A&M

Last 4 in:
Siena (in as autobid)
St Mary's (I'm going to go ahead and assume Mills is a go)
New Mexico
Providence
Davidson (in as autobid)
Michigan

Last 4 out:
Maryland (18-11) (suck it, Gary Williams)
Arizona (18-12)
South Carolina (20-8 )
Rhode Island (22-8 )

Next 4 out:
Virginia Tech (17-12)
San Diego St (18-8 )
Kentucky (19-11)
Utah St (currently in as autobid)
Miami (16-11)

Other teams within reasonable bubble range:
Florida (21-9), Northwestern (17-11), Cincinnati (17-12)

I'll listen if they run out to their conference final game, but you're probably not getting it anyways:
Auburn (19-10), Kansas St (19-10)


Everyone else is done.

[TheAsianSensation]

And let's break it down, shall we:


Big 10 - 8
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 4
MWC - 4
A-10 - 2
MVC - 2
WCC - 2
SEC - 2

[TheAsianSensation]

NIT projections? Sure.

EAST
1) Maryland (18-11) vs. Vanderbilt (18-11)
4) Notre Dame (15-13) vs. 5) Washington St (16-13)
3) Northwestern (17-11) vs. 6) Wisconsin-Green Bay (21-
2) Florida (21-9) vs. 7) Baylor (16-12)


SOUTH
1) South Carolina (20- vs. Duquense (18-10)
4) Georgetown (15-13) vs. 5) Tulsa (20-9)
3) Kansas St (19-10) vs. 6) Illinois St (22-
2) Virginia Tech (17-12) vs. 7) Northeastern (18-11)


MIDWEST
1) Rhode Island (22- vs. Mississippi St (17-12)
4) USC (17-12) vs. 5) Niagara (24-7)
3) Miami (16-11) vs. 6) George Mason (20-9)
2) Kentucky (19-11) vs. 7) Nebraska (17-11)


WEST
1) Arizona (18-12) vs. Houston (18-10)
4) Auburn (19-10) vs. 5) UAB (20-10)
3) Cincinnati (17-12) vs. 6) Temple (18-11)
2) San Diego St (18- vs. 7) Nevada (17-11)

[TheAsianSensation]

Mac is going to have fun with Butler vs. Creighton and Utah vs. St Mary's. MID MAJOR CORRUPTION!

If it wasn't for autobids in the NIT, I could say Bradley could sneak in there, but spots will disappear so I don't see it happening. Note that I made special provisions to make sure Georgetown and ND got home games and Niagara got shipped cross country.



As for the more important bracket.

I don't like 8 Big 10 teams in there, and frankly, I should have Maryland in place of Michigan, but it's more fun the way it is.

2 SEC teams? South Carolina's profile is amazingly vapid upon second check. This is the new scenario I'm rooting for. A 2-bid SEC.

It's looking more and more like the MWC will find a 4th team. There's enough wiggle room for them to squeeze another one out.

If Mills shows he's at full strength, and they win their semifinal game, they'll be fine I think.

Notice that we found 6 at-large bids for the non-BCS conferences right now. 3 MWC, 1 MVC, 1 A-10, 1 WCC. We're back within a reasonable distribution compared to previous years.

[TheAsianSensation]

Here's a placeholder view at the bubble:

Recent locks:
BYU
Dayton
Boston College
West Virginia
Texas

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
Davidson (in as autobid right now)
UNLV
San Diego St
Minnesota
---cutline---
Providence
Penn St
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Rhode Island
Northwestern
Auburn
Kansas St
Kentucky
Northern Iowa

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC

[MacabreMob]

I understand the recent placement of New Mexico into the Bubble-talks. They tie for first in the Mtn West Conference. After tie-breakers, they get the 3 seed. Comparing them to Creighton right now... I think Creighton has the better resume. CU has 2 wins out of conference over top 50 RPI teams. UNM has none. CU has a winning/better record against 51-100 than UNM. They both share the same "worst-loss"to Drake (though UNM's was on a neutral floor and CU lost to 'em at home).

But also... CU beat UNM in Omaha back in November.

So I think UNM needs to get to the MWC finals (so an upset over the 2 seed Utah) to be up on CU in the pecking order.

All of this may mean nothing as both sit behind BCS schools in the pecking order, anyway.

[MacabreMob]

Don't know where else to mention this, so I'm sticking it in your thread TAS.

Today is a BIG day in the MAC's final day of games.

10-5 Buffalo
10-5 Akron
10-5 Mia-Oh
10-5 Bowling Green
9-6 Kent

Buffalo hosts Mia-Oh (Buff wins?, so they are 11-5 and Mia-Oh is 10-6).

Akron is at Kent (Kent wins so they are 10-6 and Akron is 10-6).

Bowling Green hosts Ohio who is 7-8 (and if BG wins, they are also 11-5).

That would mean?
Buff and BG 11-5
Akron, Kent, and Mia-Oh finish 10-6

[Bravesfan]

Here's a placeholder view at the bubble:

Recent locks:
BYU
Dayton
Boston College
West Virginia
Texas

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
Davidson (in as autobid right now)
UNLV
San Diego St
Minnesota
---cutline---
Providence
Penn St
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Rhode Island
Northwestern
Auburn
Kansas St
Kentucky
Northern Iowa

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC

I'm still peeved with Joe Lunardi keeping Creighton out based on yesterday's game. And at the expense of a pretender like South Carolina who has ZERO top 50 wins!

Then again maybe he is making up for predicting ISU would make the tournament last year.

[TheAsianSensation]

St Mary's has officially added a game. Eastern Washington next week (12-17 EWU).

[MacabreMob]

St Mary's has officially added a game. Eastern Washington next week (12-17 EWU).

Wow. Thanks for the update TAS. Amazing... they found a west coast team available to schedule a "buy-game" this late in the year.

[TheAsianSensation]

sunday update:

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
UNLV
San Diego St
South Carolina
Providence
---cutline---
Minnesota
Davidson
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Penn St
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Auburn
Kansas St
Rhode Island
Kentucky
Northwestern

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC
Vanderbilt

[TheAsianSensation]

Don't know where else to mention this, so I'm sticking it in your thread TAS.

Today is a BIG day in the MAC's final day of games.

10-5 Buffalo
10-5 Akron
10-5 Mia-Oh
10-5 Bowling Green
9-6 Kent

Buffalo hosts Mia-Oh (Buff wins?, so they are 11-5 and Mia-Oh is 10-6).

Akron is at Kent (Kent wins so they are 10-6 and Akron is 10-6).

Bowling Green hosts Ohio who is 7-8 (and if BG wins, they are also 11-5).

That would mean?
Buff and BG 11-5
Akron, Kent, and Mia-Oh finish 10-6

Bowling Green wins the tiebreak and the conference - probably the 5th best team in that conference gets the NIT bid. Now watch BG win the tourney and no MAC team go to the NIT.

That league is so frustrating.

[shaunguth]

Today's updates:

Jerry Palm has UNI (13) facing Missouri (4). He also has Creighton as one of the first four out.

Tim Gardner (USA Today) says this about Creighton: OUT Ouch. Rout at the hands of Illinois State did major damage to the Bluejays' NCAA hopes. Such a loss -- in the league semifinals no less -- is probably too much to overcome.

Bracketography has UNI (12) facing Illinois (5) and Creighton (12) facing UCLA (5).

ESPN Bubble Watch had this to say about Creighton: The Bluejays will have a week full of anxiety after getting routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with three victories over RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Dayton, George Mason and Illinois State at home. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 3-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more than respectable 8-4 record in road games.

[Bravesfan]

Today's updates:

Jerry Palm has UNI (13) facing Missouri (4). He also has Creighton as one of the first four out.

Tim Gardner (USA Today) says this about Creighton: OUTOuch. Rout at the hands of Illinois State did major damage to the Bluejays' NCAA hopes. Such a loss -- in the league semifinals no less -- is probably too much to overcome.

Bracketography has UNI (12) facing Illinois (5) and Creighton (12) facing UCLA (5).

ESPN Bubble Watch had this to say about Creighton: The Bluejays will have a week full of anxiety after getting routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with three victories over RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Dayton, George Mason and Illinois State at home. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 3-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more than respectable 8-4 record in road games.

I agree with the ESPN Bubble Watch more than the others (outside of Bracketography). How anyone can say Creighton is out based on one game, especially since they have better credentials than last year's ISU team is beyond me!

Creighton has better credentials than all but two or three of the SEC teams in the running for a bid. But watch get four or even five teams in at the expense of Creighton. I hope the committee proves me wrong as they have been somewhat independent of the BCS pundits in recent years, but it will still be a long week for them.

[TheAsianSensation]

We should organize a selection committee for here. We can do a better job than those hacks. Besides, I wanna see a bracket with 2 SEC teams in it.

New bracket from me tonight. Looks like I'm giving the SEC their 3rd team in the field back.