TAS Bracketology 2009

[TheAsianSensation]

Well, here we go. I think Creighton is 3 wins away from an at-large bid.

ISU is really gone after tonight, and UNI is on life support and has been ever since the Siena game.

[heybballfans]

big east is best conference by far and i think its such a shame if the big ten or any conference for that matter gets more bids than the big east. and last time i checked ACC beat big ten once again in challenge, so shouldnt the ACC get mroe than the big east? I would love to see 8 big east teams, 7 ACC, and 6 big ten.

Becuase lets face it big ten is solid, but no team with any real potential to win whole thing. Just a bunch of teams prime to be upset and lose early. Now ACC and big east really have teams that could win the whole thing. big ten teams would just be teams that could be challenging in some rounds.

big ten good, but way overrated. i saw some where that big ten highest rated conference. Are u kdding me?!!? the top team Mich St. lost to NU when it was AT MSU!!!!! big ten overrated, but still solid and better than last year.

[heybballfans]

one conference that needs multiple teams in there is the Atlantic 10! they have looked very impressive with some solid teams. maybe 3 bids and if push it 4? Because they have solid teams that could really upset teams. Xavier,dayton,St joes, uri, and outsiders duquesne are all solid and would be fun to see in NCAA tourny. so lets go! im ready to fill my bracket already!

[TheAsianSensation]

Teams get bids, not conferences. Teams get bids, not conferences.

Repeat after me.

And even though I do conference breakdowns, I break them down based on the odds of each individual team has of making the field, and then lumping the probabilities together. When I say the Big East will end up with 8, I mean that there's 7 locks and there's 4 teams with about a 1-in-4 chance of making it given their schedule and capability.

The A-10 is slowly developing a case for a 3rd team. Dayton is slipping but I can't imagine them not making it. Temple and Rhode Island are the two teams right now that can run up from the outside to get a bid.

[TheAsianSensation]

EAST

@Philadephia
1) Connecticut (27-2) vs. 16) Morgan St (18-11)
Boston College (20-9) vs. 9) Tennessee (17-10)

@Portland
4) Washington (22-7) vs. 13) Davidson (23-6)
5) Illinois (23-6) vs. 12) Utah St (25-4)

@Miami
3) Memphis (26-3) v. 14) Cornell (17-9)
6) Butler (24-4) vs. 11) Providence (17-11)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (24-5) vs. 15) Tennessee-Martin (15-8 )
7) Texas (19-9) vs. 10) Arizona (18-11)


WEST

@KansasCity
1) Oklahoma (26-3) vs. 16) Cal State-Northridge (13-12)
West Virginia (19-9) vs. 9) Wisconsin (16-10)

@Portland
4) Florida St (22-7) vs. 13) Western Kentucky (20-8 )
5) Arizona St (21-7) vs. 12) UNLV (20-8 )

@Philadephia
3) Xavier (23-5) vs. 14) Akron (17-10)
6) Clemson (22-6) vs. 11) Oklahoma St (19-9)

@Dayton
2) Louisville (22-5) vs. 15) Robert Morris (21-10)
7) Gonzaga (22-5) vs. 10) South Carolina (20-7)


MIDWEST

@Dayton
1) Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. 16) Radford (15-11)/Alabama St (15-8 )
BYU (21-6) vs. 9) Penn St (20-9)

@Boise
4) Missouri (23-4) vs. 13) Vermont (22-7)
5) UCLA (22-7) vs. 12) Florida (21-7)

@Miami
3) Wake Forest (22-5) vs. 14) American (21-7)
6) LSU (25-4) vs. 11) Siena (22-7)

@Minneapolis
2) Michigan St (22-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (15-7)
7) Syracuse (19-8 ) vs. 10) Texas A&M (20-8 )


SOUTH

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (24-3) vs. 16) Jacksonville (17-12)
Dayton (24-5) vs. 9) Kentucky (19-10)

@Minneapolis
4) Purdue (22-7) vs. 13) VCU (21-9)
5) Marquette (23-5) vs. 12) Creighton (25-6)

@Boise
3) Villanova (23-6) vs. 14) Weber St (19-8 )
6) Utah (20-7) vs. 11) Maryland (17-10)

@KansasCity
2) Kansas (23-5) vs. 15) North Dakota St (21-6)
7) California (21-8 ) vs. 10) Ohio St (18-9)

[TheAsianSensation]

That bracket above got destroyed in proceduring. Destroyed. Just about every team from 8 to 12 aren't on their actual seeding line.


Beyond next 4 in, but in somewhat serious trouble. These teams look like bubble teams until you line them up and see the competition for the bubble spots. These teams are just in much danger as the next teams.
UNLV
Ohio St
Wisconsin
Tennessee

Next 4 in:
Kentucky
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Oklahoma St

Last 4 in:
Providence
Penn St
Siena (in as autobid)
Maryland
Florida

Last 4 out:
Virginia Tech (17-11)
Creighton (in as autobid)
Minnesota (19-8 )
Rhode Island (21-8 )
Davidson (in as autobid)
Utah St (in as autobid)
Kansas St (19-9)

Next 4 out:
San Diego St (17-8 )
Cincinnati (17-10)
Michigan (17-11)
St Mary's (22-5)

Teams comparable to last 8 out:
New Mexico (19-10)
Miami (16-10)

Pretty much dead, but we can't ignore them:
Notre Dame (15-12)
Georgetown (15-12)
Niagara (23-7)
USC (16-12)
Temple (17-11)
UAB (20-9)
George Mason (20-9)
Northern Iowa (19-10)
Illinois St (22-8 )

[TheAsianSensation]

For the bubble, it's about 30 teams for 12 spots or so right now. It's such a muddled mess right at the bubble - it's the most volatile it's been in years. One fickle game can move you so many spots right now.

Notes about the rankings:

The Big 10 has a billion teams residing in bubble territory. Watch and see which one pulls an upset in the BTT.

Creighton is very, very relevant. They're the ones going nuts with wins when everyone else is floundering.

Yes, we have to pay attention to GT and ND. Live with it for another week or so.

Rhode Island is more relevant than you think. Committees love teams flying from the outside playing their way in.

Davidson and Siena and Utah St all in serious trouble now. This could be interesting. St Mary's is the one winner from these mid major developments.

[TheAsianSensation]

13 more NIT spots to fill. On average, about 7 of these will be stolen away.
Northwestern (16-11)
Washington St (16-13)
Duquense (17-9)
Tulsa (19-9)
Nevada (16-11)
Auburn (18-10)
Nebraska (16-11)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (21-
Baylor (16-11)
Houston (18-9)
Cleveland St (18-10)
Mississippi (15-13)
Northeastern (18-11)


CIT and CBI spots. I'm not going to bother guessing who goes where.
North Carolina St (15-11)
Seton Hall (14-13)
Stanford (16-11)
Vanderbilt (17-11)
Mississippi St (16-12)

Alabama (14-12)
Wyoming (16-10)
St Joseph's (14-13)
LaSalle (15-12)
St Louis (16-11)

Bradley (16-13)
Evansville (15-12)
UTEP (17-11)
Boise St (16-10)
New Mexico St (15-13)

Wright St (18-12)
Hofstra (19-10)
Old Dominion (20-9)
Binghamton (19-
Arkansas-Little Rock (22-7)

Miami OH (15-11)
Buffalo (17-9)
Rider (17-11)
Troy (18-11)
Bowling Green (14-11)

VMI (18-7)
Liberty (17-10)
Belmont (18-11)
Fairfield (16-13)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (14-13)

Charleston (22-7)
Portland (17-11)

[Bravesfan]

For the bubble, it's about 30 teams for 12 spots or so right now. It's such a muddled mess right at the bubble - it's the most volatile it's been in years. One fickle game can move you so many spots right now.

Notes about the rankings:

The Big 10 has a billion teams residing in bubble territory. Watch and see which one pulls an upset in the BTT.

Creighton is very, very relevant. They're the ones going nuts with wins when everyone else is floundering.

Yes, we have to pay attention to GT and ND. Live with it for another week or so.

Rhode Island is more relevant than you think. Committees love teams flying from the outside playing their way in.

Davidson and Siena and Utah St all in serious trouble now. This could be interesting. St Mary's is the one winner from these mid major developments.

I don't know. I still like Siena over the other two. I think they and Creighton are the two teams outside of the ranked mid-majors and MWC teams that can get in if they lose their conference tournament. Siena did lose at a pretty strong Niagara the other night, but no shame their. As long as they take care of Cansius and make the semis of their conference tournament, I think they should at least be given a very good look.

And yes I guess we have no choice with GT and ND. I know ND is playing much better lately, but have you EVER seen two more mediocre teams get so much slobbering love by the BCS dominated media?! This gets REALLY old every year!

[TheAsianSensation]

Break it down!

Big East 8
ACC 7
Big 10 6
Big 12 6
SEC 5
Pac 10 5
MWC 3
A-10 2

[TheAsianSensation]

I don't know. I still like Siena over the other two. I think they and Creighton are the two teams outside of the ranked mid-majors and MWC teams that can get in if they lose their conference tournament. Siena did lose at a pretty strong Niagara the other night, but no shame their. As long as they take care of Cansius and make the semis of their conference tournament, I think they should at least be given a very good look.

And yes I guess we have no choice with GT and ND. I know ND is playing much better lately, but have you EVER seen two more mediocre teams get so much slobbering love by the BCS dominated media?! This gets REALLY old every year!

The problem with Siena is they scheduled up and lost the game they scheduled up on. Will the effort to schedule up make them good to go?

Creighton is doing nothing but winning lately. Committees love to value that.


I hate Georgetown. But they're 7-8 vs. teams currently in my field of 65, and they have UConn, Memphis, @Nova on their resume. A resume that has that attribute is usually a solid favorite to make the field, it's unbelievable. They DEFINITELY have to get their last 2, and then I'll be forced to start making judgment calls on them.

[TheAsianSensation]

You know what? I should've put UNI as the official MVC representative as of that last bracket.

[TheAsianSensation]

Time to rev up the hype engine, boys.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Lunardi's got the multi-bid Valley and I don't. Isn't this supposed to be the other way around?

[OrangeandBlack74]

Time to rev up the hype engine, boys.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Lunardi's got the multi-bid Valley and I don't. Isn't this supposed to be the other way around?

This is the first I've seen/heard someone in the "mainstream" media give props to Creighton and include them in a tournament bracket. I know we give Lunardi a fair amount of grief on this board, but he's generally pretty accurate with his selections. I hope he's right...

[bugregshu]

Within the last week or so, Creighton has been talked about a lot on ESPN bracketology, and is included a lot in their blind resumes. Last night they took a vote and all three voters said Creighton would be in with an at-large. I think it was Doug Gottlieb who said win 2 in the tourney, and Creighton is a lock.