Why I Believe We Will Beat Evansville Twice

[PTownHawkeye]

I look for statistical trends whenever I analyze a team that Bradley is going to play. This does not give you more than a one dimensional view of an opposing team, but assumptions can definitely be made based off statistics. There is nothing out of the ordinary about Evansville except for one glaring statistic. Evansville is terrible at shooting the 3-ball.

On a quick search, I could not find 100% up to date stats for all D-I teams, but I did find that as of 2/11, Evansville was LAST IN DIVISION I in 3-pointers made per game. In our past 3 games, we have been sunk by clutch shooting, especially late in the game. Just look at our opponents 3FG-3FGA...

Northern Iowa 7-15
Drake 8-24
Creighton 9-21

I honestly have not been as disappointed in our defense inside the arc as I have been with our defense behind it. Shy Ely is a master at driving to the basket and getting easy layups and short shots. We need Dodie to have a UIC/Josh Mayo type of defensive game. If we can focus on shutting Evansville down inside of 15 feet, I think we have a great chance of winning twice in the next 7 days.

[houstontxbrave]

Every single game we play someone has a career night, a team does something it hasnt done in 20 years, something out of ordinary happens... Im just saying.

[squirrel]

Marty makes it a point not to shoot the 3, opting instead for better shot selection and higher percentage opportunities. He's obsessed about that. And it works.

Basketball Prospectus wrote about this earlier this season:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=109

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/index.php?paged=2

[BUFAN]

PTown, its amazing what a little of that bradley "D" can do for a team. I am certain they will make a lot of 3s against us...

[Da Coach]

Marty makes it a point not to shoot the 3, opting instead for better shot selection and higher percentage opportunities. He's obsessed about that. And it works.

Basketball Prospectus wrote about this earlier this season:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=109

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...ex.php?paged=2

It might also have something to do with the fact that his shooters are terrible from three point range. Marty is just making the necessary adjustments that any good coach will try to make.
They are dead last in the MVC shooting 31.2% as a team, and 28.4% for the MVC.
Among starters who have attempted more than 10 three pointers this season:
Player............Overall 3pt%.....MVC 3pt%
Shy Ely................27.9%............25.0%
Jason Holsinger......31.5%............26.9%
Kaylon Williams......30.8%............33.3%
Kavon Lacey.........30.0%............25.0%

Holsinger's troubles are the hardest to understand. He had been on track to be the best three point shooter in school history, and has been a very good three point shooter in his career until this year. His 31.5% average this year is the lowest he has ever had. He shot 43.7% his sophomore year, and 41.8% last year.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/players/47349

[PTownHawkeye]

For Holsinger, it seems to be a matter of shot selection. Two seasons ago, he often was left open in the 22-25 ft range because Evansville had 2 big men (Strickland and Webster) and another 3-point marksman in Kyle Anslinger, all seniors. Therefore, Holsinger was likely no better than the 4th option, so teams had very little incentive to play up on him on the perimeter.

I recall him hitting a few really deep 3's that year against BU at Carver.

If you look at last year, he was taking a lot of those same shots with relative success. I have watched Evansville play twice this year and noticed that Holsinger's shot have gotten even more ridiculous...26 feet from the basket seems to be his "sweet" spot...how many people are going to shoot much better than 30% when so many of their shots are so far from the basket?

I'm hopeful that he doesn't decide to break out of his slump against us today. I'm trying to be optimistic.

[bluedevils1]

Also, they play man. We should not be able to score 86 pts with the lineup we have, but we looked like the Phoenix Suns today. Also, they have no legit big man like the good Valley teams and I think we will beat them again.