Mid season prospects for multiple bids in the Valley

[Bravesfan]

Now that we are half way through the conference season, I'm wondering if the Valley is any closer to obtaining multiple NCAA bids this year.

After a quick scan through realtimerpi.com, there appears to be only two teams that may be capable of playing themselves into at-large contention, unless of course the Valley goes 10-0 in the Bracketbuster!

The two teams that have a shot at an at-large bid are Northern Iowa and Creighton. UNI has a 4-3 record against the RPI top 100, and an 0-1 record against the top 50. Creighton has a 5-4 record against the RPI top 100, and a 1-0 record against the top 50 with a nice win over Dayton. Obviously, if UNI wins the conference by two or three games and makes it at least to the semifinals of the Valley tournament, I think they are in. But winning the Valley regular season by a large margin will go a long way to clinching a bid, though I can't see the committee leaving out the first place team in a top 8 conference.

Creighton has the best credentials for an at large bid, but they obviously need to turn things up and finish at least a strong second to get consideration. A run toward the Vallley championship game, and their win against Dayton will be big.

Bradley on the other hand with their 1-6 record against the RPI top 100 and ISU's 2-1 record against the RPI top 100 will not give them even a sniff of an at-large bid unless either finishes first in the conference, which would mean they would both have to knock off several more top 100 teams to do so.

Now, I certainly am not rooting for Creighton to start winning or UNI to run away with the conference, just stating how the Valley would be able to have a shot at multiple bids. The most feasible chance for that happening does not have much to do with RPI's or top 100 wins. Rather the team that finishes in first place (preferrably one first place team and not a tie) should be in with a second team winning the Valley tournament. I think that would be the safest way to go, and hopefully one of those teams will be Bradley.

[Bravesfan]

continuing a trend for the past two years, fewer and fewer mid-majors will get at large bids..
I would be astounded if the Valley gets two bids this season......
Even ISU if they end up 26-3 will likely not get a bid because of their horrible non-conference schedule.

Well, it's hard to keep a 26-3 team from the #8 conference in the country out of the NCAA Tournament, no matter how weak their schedule. There is usually a team or two like that that makes the tourney every year.

Of course, we won't have to worry about that scenerio since ISU will lose several more games this year!

[Murph]

Even ISU if they end up 26-3 will likely not get a bid because of their horrible non-conference schedule.

I'd love to see this happen, can you imagine the conspiracy theories over in redbird nation.

[TheAsianSensation]

Team by team:

UNI: This is an interesting case here. The non-con profile is just plain bad. Auburn isn't a bad scalp, but too many swing games lost. However, the Valley title has value. It's easy to forget that. If UNI goes, say, 15-3 and adds a BB win....that's 22-8 and a conference title. I think that's in.

Breaking point: not winning the Valley title. Without that conference championship, there's not a lot on the profile to hang the hat on. Plus, it obviously means a 2nd half collapse. Win the Valley, prefereably at 14-4. 13-5 might be enough, but that's testing things.


ISU: The bad news is they haven't played anyone. The good news is that they won all those games, so they didn't compound their error. Let's give them, say, 24-6 (12-6), including a BB win. I don't think that's enough. They probably need a share of the Valley title.

Breaking point: First off, winning the BB is MANDATORY. Whoever they get will be their signature win opportunity, so it's a must-win. I think anything worse than 24-6 (12-6) is a definite no-go. I'd say 25-5 (13-5) actually looks very doable. If they can get to 14-4 and win the Valley, they're in, regardless of BB.

Bradley: Boy, don't you wish we had UMKC and UWM back? One of those and one of the MSU/Butler games and we'd be perfect right now.

Breaking point: Win the Valley. 14-4. Anything less and there's too many losses. BB is critical. 14-4 and a BB win gets us to 21-9, with a hot finish. That is enough. 13-5 probably isn't, because that probably means no Valley title.

Creighton: Do you see them getting in with a 12-6 conference record? That's dicey. That means they can only afford 1 loss down the stretch. They won their swing games, lost the 1 to Nebraska (not devastating) and one to UA-LR (DEVASTATING).

Breaking point: Get to 13-5 in the Valley. If that nets a share of the conference title, all the better. There's enough heft in here to make 24-7 very, very doable.

Evansville: Worth noting because running the table gets them to 22-7. At 21-8 (12-6), it's probably not enough, given the lack of non-con heft.

Drake: Would get to 24-7 by running the table. See Evansville comment.

Southern Illinois: Run the table to get to 19-11. They scheduled up, so they'd be paid attention to, but nothing of note in the non-con.



The last 3 are listed because them running the table would include probably at least a share of the Valley title. The Valley title isn't just a huge resume builder, it's THE LYNCHPIN AND THE HOLY GRAIL. Conference titles have value. Remember that.

[TheAsianSensation]

Also:

13-5 is the teetering point. Any conference champ below that mark (12-6) probably won't go, despite what I've said. Any conference champ above that mark (14-4) will most likely go no matter what. 13-5 is the breaking point where other things begin to matter.

[Bravesfan]

Team by team:

UNI: This is an interesting case here. The non-con profile is just plain bad. Auburn isn't a bad scalp, but too many swing games lost. However, the Valley title has value. It's easy to forget that. If UNI goes, say, 15-3 and adds a BB win....that's 22-8 and a conference title. I think that's in.

Breaking point: not winning the Valley title. Without that conference championship, there's not a lot on the profile to hang the hat on. Plus, it obviously means a 2nd half collapse. Win the Valley, prefereably at 14-4. 13-5 might be enough, but that's testing things.


ISU: The bad news is they haven't played anyone. The good news is that they won all those games, so they didn't compound their error. Let's give them, say, 24-6 (12-6), including a BB win. I don't think that's enough. They probably need a share of the Valley title.

Breaking point: First off, winning the BB is MANDATORY. Whoever they get will be their signature win opportunity, so it's a must-win. I think anything worse than 24-6 (12-6) is a definite no-go. I'd say 25-5 (13-5) actually looks very doable. If they can get to 14-4 and win the Valley, they're in, regardless of BB.

Bradley: Boy, don't you wish we had UMKC and UWM back? One of those and one of the MSU/Butler games and we'd be perfect right now.

Breaking point: Win the Valley. 14-4. Anything less and there's too many losses. BB is critical. 14-4 and a BB win gets us to 21-9, with a hot finish. That is enough. 13-5 probably isn't, because that probably means no Valley title.

Creighton: Do you see them getting in with a 12-6 conference record? That's dicey. That means they can only afford 1 loss down the stretch. They won their swing games, lost the 1 to Nebraska (not devastating) and one to UA-LR (DEVASTATING).

Breaking point: Get to 13-5 in the Valley. If that nets a share of the conference title, all the better. There's enough heft in here to make 24-7 very, very doable.

Evansville: Worth noting because running the table gets them to 22-7. At 21-8 (12-6), it's probably not enough, given the lack of non-con heft.

Drake: Would get to 24-7 by running the table. See Evansville comment.

Southern Illinois: Run the table to get to 19-11. They scheduled up, so they'd be paid attention to, but nothing of note in the non-con.



The last 3 are listed because them running the table would include probably at least a share of the Valley title. The Valley title isn't just a huge resume builder, it's THE LYNCHPIN AND THE HOLY GRAIL. Conference titles have value. Remember that.

Great analysis! I think again it's important to emphasis to those who feel first place is meaningless that it would be very surprising not to have the first place team out of the #8 conference not earn an at-large bid should they not win the Valley tournament. That's why it will be important for whomever wins the Valley regular season to get there by any means possible. Unless like you said AsianSensation that the winner has 6 losses, anyone who wins it, as long as it's not a tie for first, should be in easily.

A tie for first though gives the committee an excuse to leave one or more of those teams out as long as the other first team wins the Valley tournament. That's why it's important for one team to win the regular season by themselves. Again, I'm hoping we can pull this off, so we need some help from others to knock UNI down a bit.

[TheAsianSensation]

Obviously, we need to root against UNI to win the conference, but by far and away our best chance to get 2 MVC teams to the tournament is to have UNI check out at the top and hang a 15-3 on everyone.

Well, ISU could hang 15-3 too, but I'd rather get 0 bids to the NCAAs than have that scenario play out.

[georgethedog]

Simple: zero chance.

[ER3]

Simple: zero chance.

Exactly. No chance. We are a one bid league this year...pure and simple.

UNI could win out until the MVC Tourney championship (which they won't)...and they would be something like 25-7...

That's all well and good, but their resume would still be lousy. They would likely have zero wins over top 50 teams...and bad losses to UIC, Indy State (at home), Iowa State (at home)...and they got embarrassed by Marquette by 30 points.
That's what I'm betting the committee would look at...no quality wins, a few bad losses, an unimpressive RPI, and a 73-43 pasting on a neutral court by the only top 50 team on their schedule. Valley title would be enough most years, but if the conference has no top 50 teams, would winning the league still mean all that much in the NCAA Selection process?

Doubtful. There are better times ahead for the Valley, but this is really a down year for the conference...and clearly, a one bid year.

[Bravesfan]

Exactly. No chance. We are a one bid league this year...pure and simple.

UNI could win out until the MVC Tourney championship (which they won't)...and they would be something like 25-7...

That's all well and good, but their resume would still be lousy. They would likely have zero wins over top 50 teams...and bad losses to UIC, Indy State (at home), Iowa State (at home)...and they got embarrassed by Marquette by 30 points.
That's what I'm betting the committee would look at...no quality wins, a few bad losses, an unimpressive RPI, and a 73-43 pasting on a neutral court by the only top 50 team on their schedule. Valley title would be enough most years, but if the conference has no top 50 teams, would winning the league still mean all that much in the NCAA Selection process?

Doubtful. There are better times ahead for the Valley, but this is really a down year for the conference...and clearly, a one bid year.

I strongly disagree. You can't let those "know it all" ESPN pundits persuade you otherwise. Teams do earn bids, but conference affiliation does matter. And I just cannot see any scenerio were a first place Valley team does not get an at-large bid if they are the champions of the #8 conference in the country, aside from ties. I don't know if there has ever been a year where the first place team in the #8 conference has ever been left out, outside of if there was a tie for first and only one team was chosen. As long as there is an undisputed first place champion with a record of 13-5 or better, they will be in if they lose out in the Valley tournament.

There are only three ways we are a one bid conference this year. First, obviously a repeat of last year's occurance of a runaway regular season champion that blows out their opponent in the Valley championship game. Second, if there is a tie for first, where the committee is not obligated to take more than one "first place" team if the other wins the tourney championship. And maybe third, if there are two or more teams tied for first and neither make the Valley championship game.

As far as UNI is concerned, the committee will not remember that Indy St loss since they reeled off seven straight wins, some against decent teams on the road. And as I mentioned above, Creighton has the best at-large profile, and they are maybe the only team with a marginal chance of earning an at-large bid if they finish a strong second.

The Creighton scenerio is a bit of a stretch, but the scenerio of a "split" Valley champion with a team other than the regular season champion winning the tournament is not that farfetched. I still say the Valley will almost certainly get two teams into the NCAA tournament if this scenerio plays out.

[Braves4Life]

I actually heard some talking heads the other day predict that the Big 10 would get 6 or 7 bids due to a weak SEC and weaker than usual mid-major leagues (MVC was mentioned).

Talk about mediocrity.... That describes the Big 10 to a "T".

[MacabreMob]

Talk about mediocrity.... That describes the Big 10 to a "T".

The B10 is good. Maybe better than mediocre. But what we have this season is the B10 figuring out how to use/manipulate/cheat the RPI. Just like the MVC did in 2006. But you won't hear it from the "crack-pipes" in the Drive-by Media. The B10 will get stroked up and down and get at least 6 if not 7 teams in the Dance.

In defense of the B10 teams (and with that many teams/chances to win games), I think they will do well. From what I've seen, at least the B10 teams play defense better than most of the other BCS-Conference teams.

[lake Camelot]

I don't have the interest to read through this post since I already know for sure. Maybe this is what was said. There is nobody from the MVC getting in except the Tourney Champ. I don't care who is left out. Not this year.

[Braves4Life]

I don't have the interest to read through this post since I already know for sure. Maybe this is what was said. There is nobody from the MVC getting in except the Tourney Champ. I don't care who is left out. Not this year.

Somewhat agree. But if #1 in regular season loses to #2 in MVC Tourney final we have an outside chance for two, IMO.

[Bravesfan]

I don't have the interest to read through this post since I already know for sure. Maybe this is what was said. There is nobody from the MVC getting in except the Tourney Champ. I don't care who is left out. Not this year.

No, you don't know for sure. That's my point. Nobody knows for sure until the bids are actually out.

Yes, the committee may very well find another excuse to keep more mid-majors out of the tournament. But to say that the Valley has no chance of getting two teams into the tournament is misleading. As long as we are a top 8 or 9 conference, I'd say are chances are at least very good.