Myth Busted - Butler vs. Bradley

[Da Coach]

but I don't think you can say with any degree of certainly that a team that got blown out by UMKC would go 11-0 against anyone's schedule...

In my opinion, Wright State is a significantly better team than UMKC, regardless of what the RPI "facts" tell us right now...

OK, so I see the rules you want to play by here....
I guess your opinions are the only ones that count, and I am not entitled to my opinions, because you do not think I can say it with any degree of certainty.

By the way, how is it that your opinions pass the degree of certainty rule? At least I back my argument up with RPI numbers, which is what the NCAA uses. Maybe they should just throw the whole RPI thing out, and give you a call when it comes time to select the tournament teams.

[shaunguth]

Well, if the NCAA really believes North Carolina is the 10th best team in the country, we may still have a chance! By the way, Illinois is now better than North Carolina!

[TheAsianSensation]

Everyone who tries to say how better we'd be with Warren or Egolf is guessing. Educated guessing, but guessing. You don't know how better we'd be.

You also don't know what our record would be with ISU's schedule.


Yes, the injuries suck. Yes, we scheduled challenging road games and we've lost other games we should've won. But playing the "What If" game to fully support any argument you make is a little biased and can't be fully trusted.

All we know is the situation we have. And we have to ask ourselves, "Given what we know about our current circumstances, what are reasonable expectations for this program?" Don't compare Bradley to Butler and try to psycho-analyze rosters. Don't point up and down at ISU's schedule and say how obviously we'd be 11-0 or 7-4 or whatever against it. Playing the hypothetical game is stupid and leads down a road where nothing good has ever happened.


Lastly......why compare yourself to another program to try and be like that program, when the END GAME is to BEAT that program?

[pfunk880]

Everyone who tries to say how better we'd be with Warren or Egolf is guessing. Educated guessing, but guessing. You don't know how better we'd be.

You also don't know what our record would be with ISU's schedule.


Yes, the injuries suck. Yes, we scheduled challenging road games and we've lost other games we should've won. But playing the "What If" game to fully support any argument you make is a little biased and can't be fully trusted.

All we know is the situation we have. And we have to ask ourselves, "Given what we know about our current circumstances, what are reasonable expectations for this program?" Don't compare Bradley to Butler and try to psycho-analyze rosters. Don't point up and down at ISU's schedule and say how obviously we'd be 11-0 or 7-4 or whatever against it. Playing the hypothetical game is stupid and leads down a road where nothing good has ever happened.


Lastly......why compare yourself to another program to try and be like that program, when the END GAME is to BEAT that program?

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner.

[tornado]

Well, if the NCAA really believes North Carolina is the 10th best team in the country, we may still have a chance! By the way, Illinois is now better than North Carolina!

shaun, please.....

can we, for once, stop this non-sense that RPI=the ranking of who is better..

it never was, nor is that so any argument to knock the RPI by citing who is a better team is like arguing who should be Miss America by judging their IQ's!!

[mike radigan]

shaun, please.....

can we, for once, stop this non-sense that RPI=the ranking of who is better..

it never was, nor is that so any argument to knock the RPI by citing who is a better team is like arguing who should be Miss America by judging their IQ's!!

Have to disagree as that is the SOLE purpose of the RPI. Now you can disagree with the numbers, but...

And I have stated MANY times Sagarin is much better early in the season. Sagarin top 25:

[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 23 Tuesday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.01          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
   1  North Carolina          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  95.41[/COLOR]   10   0   74.97(  97)    2   0  |    3   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   94.92    1 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   95.49    1[/COLOR]
   2  Duke                    =[COLOR=#9900ff]  92.66[/COLOR]   10   1   76.19(  67)    2   0  |    3   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   91.77    8 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   93.29    2[/COLOR]
   3  Pittsburgh              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  92.39[/COLOR]   11   0   74.12( 132)    0   0  |    1   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   92.72    5 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   91.65    3[/COLOR]
   4  Clemson                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  90.92[/COLOR]   12   0   72.54( 198)    1   0  |    2   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   94.07    2 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   88.86    8[/COLOR]
   5  Connecticut             =[COLOR=#9900ff]  90.81[/COLOR]   10   0   72.23( 218)    1   0  |    3   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   92.78    4 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   89.14    7[/COLOR]
   6  Oklahoma                =[COLOR=#9900ff]  90.10[/COLOR]   12   0   74.53( 116)    2   0  |    3   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   92.61    6 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   88.20   13[/COLOR]
   7  Ohio State              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  89.47[/COLOR]    9   0   71.75( 238)    2   0  |    3   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   93.84    3 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   87.07   18[/COLOR]
   8  Georgetown              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  89.13[/COLOR]    9   1   72.65( 194)    1   1  |    2   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   87.49   14 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   91.17    4[/COLOR]
   9  Wake Forest             =[COLOR=#9900ff]  88.38[/COLOR]   11   0   69.70( 303)    0   0  |    1   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   89.26    9 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   87.22   15[/COLOR]
  10  Butler                  =[COLOR=#9900ff]  88.15[/COLOR]    9   1   78.41(  22)    1   1  |    2   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   92.46    7 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   85.66   27[/COLOR]
[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 23 Tuesday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.01          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
  11  Gonzaga                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.96[/COLOR]    7   3   78.75(  20)    1   1  |    2   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   85.97   23 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   90.86    5[/COLOR]
  12  Texas                   =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.74[/COLOR]   10   2   74.68( 106)    1   2  |    3   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   88.23   11 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   86.87   21[/COLOR]
  13  Illinois                =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.74[/COLOR]   11   1   72.79( 188)    1   1  |    1   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   87.95   13 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   87.09   17[/COLOR]
  14  West Virginia           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.40[/COLOR]    9   2   73.81( 143)    0   1  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   85.43   31 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   90.15    6[/COLOR]
  15  Xavier-Ohio             =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.39[/COLOR]    9   2   78.71(  21)    2   2  |    3   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   89.10   10 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   85.74   26[/COLOR]
  16  Purdue                  =[COLOR=#9900ff]  87.18[/COLOR]   10   2   72.19( 221)    1   2  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   85.92   24 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   88.32   11[/COLOR]
  17  Tennessee               =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.78[/COLOR]    8   2   76.57(  57)    1   1  |    2   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   86.25   20 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   86.88   20[/COLOR]
  18  Notre Dame              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.70[/COLOR]    9   2   70.51( 276)    1   2  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   87.10   16 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   85.89   25[/COLOR]
  19  UCLA                    =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.66[/COLOR]    9   2   71.39( 254)    0   1  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   85.07   33 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   88.40   10[/COLOR]
  20  Arizona State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.21[/COLOR]   10   1   72.03( 227)    0   0  |    1   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   86.05   22 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   85.92   24[/COLOR]
[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 23 Tuesday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.01          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
  21  Syracuse                =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.21[/COLOR]   11   1   72.94( 177)    1   0  |    3   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   87.97   12 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   84.50   35[/COLOR]
  22  Michigan State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  86.16[/COLOR]    8   2   74.77( 103)    1   1  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   87.45   15 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   84.72   30[/COLOR]
  23  Davidson                =[COLOR=#9900ff]  85.86[/COLOR]    7   2   75.10(  95)    1   2  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   85.92   25 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   85.36   28[/COLOR]
  24  Memphis                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  85.86[/COLOR]    7   3   75.34(  88)    0   3  |    0   3  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   83.87   42 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   88.45    9[/COLOR]
  25  Missouri                =[COLOR=#9900ff]  85.74[/COLOR]    9   2   72.92( 178)    0   2  |    1   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   84.28   38 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   87.18   16[/COLOR]

Sagarin MVC (currently 8th):

[B] 8  MISSOURI VALLEY         =  76.69      76.58  (  8)   TEAMS= 10[/B]
[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 23 Tuesday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.01          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
  44  Creighton               =[COLOR=#9900ff]  83.24[/COLOR]   10   2   70.86( 266)    0   0  |    1   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   82.65   50 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   83.41   44[/COLOR]
  57  Illinois State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  81.98[/COLOR]   11   0   67.39( 332)    0   0  |    0   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   84.35   37 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   79.78   77[/COLOR]
  69  Evansville              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  80.36[/COLOR]    7   2   72.90( 180)    0   2  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   82.48   53 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   78.23   88[/COLOR]
  85  Drake                   =[COLOR=#9900ff]  78.87[/COLOR]    8   3   70.18( 288)    0   1  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   79.52   74 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.81   93[/COLOR]
 104  Southern Illinois       =[COLOR=#9900ff]  76.53[/COLOR]    4   6   77.55(  29)    0   2  |    0   3  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   75.47  123 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.18   95[/COLOR]
 115  Missouri State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  75.53[/COLOR]    7   4   70.92( 265)    0   0  |    0   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   76.20  114 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   74.44  133[/COLOR]
 126  Wichita State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  74.95[/COLOR]    6   5   72.04( 226)    0   2  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   73.60  152 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   75.89  114[/COLOR]
 128  Bradley                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  74.94[/COLOR]    6   5   74.23( 125)    0   2  |    0   3  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   76.63  110 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   72.88  163[/COLOR]
 170  Northern Iowa           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  72.57[/COLOR]    6   5   71.23( 258)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   73.83  148 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   70.86  191[/COLOR]
 268  Indiana State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  66.83[/COLOR]    1   9   77.07(  43)    0   1  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   66.20  274 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   66.98  256[/COLOR]

[tornado]

Mike...it may be a reflection of better by midseason or late season, but not early on...
that's what I am talking about.

[mike radigan]

Mike...it may be a reflection of better by midseason or late season, but not early on...
that's what I am talking about.

See Sagarin.

[tornado]

wait a minute....


first you said...

that is the SOLE purpose of the RPI

but now you say...

See Sagarin.

so are you retracting your comment about the RPI?

[mike radigan]

wait a minute....


first you said...

that is the SOLE purpose of the RPI

but now you say...

See Sagarin.

so are you retracting your comment about the RPI?

No, I'm saying Sagarin IS a RPI metric (similar to a writers' poll vs a coachs' poll) which IMHO is a more accurate metric especially early in the season.

[tornado]

I am referring to the NCAA defined RPI

[mike radigan]

I am referring to the NCAA defined RPI

You assume that. The NCAA will not verify their formula. I do know the NCAA has said they look (define look) at Sagarin. I also know for a fact that Sagarin IS part of the football formula.

[TheAsianSensation]

IMO, it's still a little early to rely on RPI numbers, but they're not the worst metric in the world to use.

However. Repeat after me:

It's simply one tool among many. One tool. It's one tool, part of a toolbox, that can be used to evaluate teams. The RPI can be an indicator, but not the end-all. Same for the Sagarin. Same for any factor you want to talk about. Even win-loss record, which may be deceiving based on how the team is playing at the moment.


Now, a tool can easily be very accurate. But to assume so is a little dangerous.