Updated Sagarin/RPI

[shaunguth]

Top 10 and Valley (through games of 12/6)

Sagarin___RPI
1_________13 - North Carolina
2__________1 - Gonzaga
3__________5 - Pittsburgh
4__________9 - Duke
5__________2 - Clemson
6_________28 - Ohio State
7_________11 - Connecticut
8_________48 - Memphis
9__________8 - Xavier-Ohio
10________45 - Tennessee
23_________3 - Butler
93_________4 - Evansville
15_________6 - Syracuse
34_________7 - Northwestern
13________10 - Oklahoma


Sagarin___RPI
47_______109 - Creighton
63_______138 - Illinois State
91________25 - Missouri State
93_________4 - Evansville
100_______51 - Bradley
108______197 - Drake
117______273 - Southern Illinois
128______167 - Wichita State
168______169 - Northern Iowa
286______306 - Indiana State

[tornado]

sg -- it is silly (some even say stupid) to be talking about RPI and ratings this early in the season, or have you not been "educated"?

[cpacmel]

Here is what Jerry Palm says about early RPI:

http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html

Why do the rankings seem so weird early in the season?

The RPI is primarily a measurement of strength of schedule and how the team did against that schedule and each season stands on its own. There are no preseason expectations - everyone starts at zero. Consequently, the numbers can really skewed early in the season because teams have played so few games. For example, a team can be 2-0, but its opponents haven't played anyone else yet, so its strength of schedule is 0. That's 75% of the formula, so the team won't be rated very highly. The data starts to take shape and look reasonable as conference play gets into full swing around the end of December. And the more games played, the better the data gets.

Not directed at you Shaunguth but:

Haven't we been saying this for a few weeks now?

Is Jerry Palm not one of the top 2-3 experts on the RPI?

[pfunk880]

^^Well put.

And Tornado, I like how you deleted the last thread about RPI .....

[Da Coach]

It was not deleted by tornado, so please don't post such erroneous assumptions as if they are facts.

It was deleted because it had turned into back and forth bickering, which nobody likes to read. Please just state your opinions about the topics, and accept that others may not agree with you.

[pfunk880]

Bickering?

Seems to me that the question of what the RPI actually represents at this point in the season has just been asked repeatedly of certain people, and these people are unwilling or unable to explain why the RPI matters.

If someone would just give me a simple explanation of why they put any stock in the RPI right now, we could stop "bickering."

[mike radigan]

If someone would just give me a simple explanation of why they put any stock in the RPI right now, we could stop "bickering."

Quite frankly we should NOT put any stock into the various RPIs except for Sagarin at this point in the season. The reason is simple as there is just not enough data to arrive at any reasonable conclusions. The reason Sagarin can be used is early in the season it also takes into account last year's data and I think that is reasonable. Teams do not start over every year. They do have returning players and I think it is reasonable to factor that in.

[Da Coach]

Help me understand-
If someone else wants to put significance into the RPI, why do they need to explain themselves to your satisfaction? That's the point, let them post their views on it, and leave it at that.
If you don't agree, fine, but no need for anyone to put others' views down or post insults. Once everyone makes their positions clear, and it continues back and forth, then that's considered bickering.

In the words of one of America's heroes, Rodney King, "can't we all just get along?"

[pfunk880]

Help me understand-
If someone else wants to put significance into the RPI, why do they need to explain themselves to your satisfaction? That's the point, let them post their views on it, and leave it at that.
If you don't agree, fine, but no need for anyone to put others' views down or post insults. Once everyone makes their positions clear, and it continues back and forth, then that's considered bickering.

In the words of one of America's heroes, Rodney King, "can't we all just get along?"

All I want to know is what Evansville having an RPI of 4 actually means, if it doesn't mean they are the fourth-best team in college basketball right now?

Is that really such a difficult question?

[Da Coach]

Well, I'll agree with you. Evansville is not quite the 4th best team in D1.
I don't see that anyone said they were. But being #4 does raise the MVC's conference RPI, and playing a schedule full of low-RPI schools hurts it.

You will admit that the main chance that conferences have to raise their RPIs is during the pre-conference season, since little change occurs to the conference RPI after that. Well the pre-conference season is more than half over. So IMO, these numbers are not insignificant.

[mike radigan]

Here's Sagarin's latest with the Valley at 8th. I think the rankings are reasonable, but you judge:

[B]8  MISSOURI VALLEY         =  76.76      76.57  (  8)   TEAMS= 10[/B]
[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 7 Sunday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.72          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
  48  Creighton               =[COLOR=#9900ff]  82.48[/COLOR]    5   2   72.59( 200)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   81.11   60 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   83.45   41[/COLOR]
  63  Illinois State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  81.11[/COLOR]    8   0   65.89( 337)    0   0  |    0   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   81.50   57 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   80.14   72[/COLOR]
  91  Missouri State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  78.55[/COLOR]    4   2   75.55(  98)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   79.29   76 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.26  100[/COLOR]
  93  Evansville              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  78.22[/COLOR]    4   1   72.17( 214)    0   1  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   78.70   82 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.15  102[/COLOR]
 102  Bradley                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  76.95[/COLOR]    4   3   76.54(  69)    0   0  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   78.12   92 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   75.26  112[/COLOR]
 108  Drake                   =[COLOR=#9900ff]  76.36[/COLOR]    5   2   66.27( 334)    0   1  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   76.57  117 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   75.53  110[/COLOR]
 121  Southern Illinois       =[COLOR=#9900ff]  75.77[/COLOR]    2   4   77.81(  42)    0   2  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   73.86  154 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.18  101[/COLOR]
 127  Wichita State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  75.40[/COLOR]    3   4   74.46( 135)    0   1  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   72.79  166 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.60   95[/COLOR]
 168  Northern Iowa           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  72.82[/COLOR]    5   3   69.31( 292)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   74.17  146 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   70.85  189[/COLOR]
 244  Indiana State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  68.00[/COLOR]    1   6   76.31(  76)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   67.63  240 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   67.75  242[/COLOR]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[pfunk880]

Here's Sagarin's latest with the Valley at 8th. I think the rankings are reasonable, but you judge:

[B]8  MISSOURI VALLEY         =  76.76      76.57  (  8)   TEAMS= 10[/B]
[B]College Basketball 2008-2009          Div I games only    through games of 2008 December 7 Sunday[/B]
[B]HOME ADVANTAGE=  4.72          [COLOR=#9900ff] RATING[/COLOR]    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 |[COLOR=#ff0000]  ELO_CHESS   [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]  PREDICTOR  [/COLOR][/B]
  48  Creighton               =[COLOR=#9900ff]  82.48[/COLOR]    5   2   72.59( 200)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   81.11   60 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   83.45   41[/COLOR]
  63  Illinois State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  81.11[/COLOR]    8   0   65.89( 337)    0   0  |    0   0  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   81.50   57 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   80.14   72[/COLOR]
  91  Missouri State          =[COLOR=#9900ff]  78.55[/COLOR]    4   2   75.55(  98)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   79.29   76 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.26  100[/COLOR]
  93  Evansville              =[COLOR=#9900ff]  78.22[/COLOR]    4   1   72.17( 214)    0   1  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   78.70   82 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.15  102[/COLOR]
 102  Bradley                 =[COLOR=#9900ff]  76.95[/COLOR]    4   3   76.54(  69)    0   0  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   78.12   92 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   75.26  112[/COLOR]
 108  Drake                   =[COLOR=#9900ff]  76.36[/COLOR]    5   2   66.27( 334)    0   1  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   76.57  117 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   75.53  110[/COLOR]
 121  Southern Illinois       =[COLOR=#9900ff]  75.77[/COLOR]    2   4   77.81(  42)    0   2  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   73.86  154 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.18  101[/COLOR]
 127  Wichita State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  75.40[/COLOR]    3   4   74.46( 135)    0   1  |    0   2  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   72.79  166 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   77.60   95[/COLOR]
 168  Northern Iowa           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  72.82[/COLOR]    5   3   69.31( 292)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   74.17  146 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   70.85  189[/COLOR]
 244  Indiana State           =[COLOR=#9900ff]  68.00[/COLOR]    1   6   76.31(  76)    0   0  |    0   1  |[COLOR=#ff0000]   67.63  240 [/COLOR]|[COLOR=#0000ff]   67.75  242[/COLOR]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That looks much, much better than the RPI at this point.

[shaunguth]

(through games of 12/21)

Sagarin___RPI
51________90 - Creighton
60________79 - Illinois State
71________21 - Evansville
87_______111 - Drake
98________84 - Missouri State
114______171 - Southern Illinois
123______185 - Wichita State
126_______95 - Bradley
169______167 - Northern Iowa
245______259 - Indiana State

[shaunguth]

(through games of 12/31)

Sagarin
33 - illinois state
51 - Creighton
60 - Evansville
77 - Drake
115 - Bradley
140 - Missouri State
143 - Wichita State
173 - Northern Iowa
199 - Southern Illinois
278 - Indiana State

Realtime RPI
21 - Evansville
38 - illinois state
67 - Creighton
76 - Bradley
81 - Drake
131 - Missouri State
183 - Northern Iowa
197 - Southern Illinois
208 - Wichita State
252 - Indiana State

[Da Coach]

RPI update-

3 D1 games remain to be decided today, but after the limited schedule that has finished, the MVC remains in 8th place in conference RPI, and they have put a little more distance between them and the 9th place A10 conference. They are now getting very close to the 7th place SEC, and not that far behind the 6th place Mountain West Conference.
It is not unrealistic to think that despite the relative poor showing the MVC has had this year, they possibly could still creep ahead of the SEC, and maybe even catch the 6th place MWC.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Bradley's RPI is #74

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html